4/5 Update: If this report is accurate, Reaper's a goner at the end of the season.
To its fans, Reaper must seem like the red-headed stepchild at CW. Doesn't fit the demo. Thrown under the American Idol bus to save 90210 episodes from being crushed. But despite the bad treatment its been getting it refuses to roll over and die. Its 18-49 demo average continues to rise even though it has exclusively aired vs. American Idol. It's already making Privileged's ratings look even worse than they did before.
It's going to be very interesting to see tonight's results when 90210 returns from its multi-month hiatus. If Reaper tops 90210, how can the CW cancel Reaper then?
I still have no idea what the CW is thinking about its Friday shows Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. They could both be back or both be cancelled because of the schedule holes the network has to fill. If only one survives, it'll be The Game. Not much to say about Privileged, other than it's not going to be coming back.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY | CW | 288 | 1,030 | 0.28 | cancelled |
| VALENTINE | CW | 345 | 1,030 | 0.33 | cancelled |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS | CW | 814 | 1,030 | 0.79 | |
| GAME, THE | CW | 906 | 1,030 | 0.88 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 918 | 1,030 | 0.89 | |
| REAPER | CW | 1,216 | 1,030 | 1.18 | |
| 90210 | CW | 1,430 | 1,030 | 1.39 | returning |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 1,534 | 1,030 | 1.49 | returning |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 1,546 | 1,030 | 1.50 | returning |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,559 | 1,030 | 1.51 | returning |
| Smallville | CW | 1,845 | 1,030 | 1.79 | returning |
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Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
All I can say is that I hope Reaper doesn’t die. Its doing alright, and can be paired with Supernatural when Smallville goes. Not Much to say about Chris and the Game except, for syndication purposes The Game as a pretty good chance for renewal (64+22=86), and Chris has slightly less of a chance. Privileged is gone and everything else has been renewed already.
Honestly, the more you people write the less you look competent. First you say Reaper’s premiere numbers suck and they’ll get canceled. Then the show gets worse numbers and you say it’s looking good for renewal. Now for some reason you seem to think Reaper will get numbers around last week, and will even top 90210. No, sorry, that won’t happen. Reaper is back to its regular problem, which is that it is once again against programming people will watch first, and time shift Reaper second. Last week the bump was only due to people who usually time shift actually being able to watch live, since their usual programming wasn’t on. Expect Reaper’s numbers to go back down again this week.
does this chart only include first run episodes or is reruns figured in show average?
king here, The season-to-date averages include all in-slot reruns.
well if Reaper runs rerun free and 90210 had 50 billion reruns is that a fair comparison, or does not matter?
I think The CW almost has to bring Reaper back next year but I’m also positive it’ll get thrown under the Idol bus again. When you’ve got a show that holds up (relatively) well against a giant like Idol you keep bringing it back.
Bob and Bill,
Are the numbers in this schedule (i.e. Reaper’s 1,216) an average for the season, or just last week’s numbers? If an average, then am I correct in calculating that week three for Reaper actually drew about 1,350 in the demo numbers? Thanks.
Bill W, these are all 18-49 season to date averages, but I am away from my spreadsheet now, so am unable to verify your calculations.
King Here, 90210 is already renewed, so it doesn’t matter where it drops on this chart. But it is very fair to compare a first run episode of Reaper to a first run episode of 90210, especially when they air on the same night.
ReaperDMV,
1. Please point out where I wrote that Reaper would be canceled.
2. Their premiere numbers *were* a lot lower than the numbers from last season, hence the use of the verb “torched” in the overnight post.
3. The show’s numbers have gone UP each week, not “worse numbers” as you write.
4. I didn’t write that it would equal 90210′s average after one more show, but the results of both shows *tonight* are likely going to be very close.
When I look at this list, I just feel like the CW needs to rethink its pilot strategy. Why are they focusing so much on creating soapy teen dramas when their top-performing shows are both cult genre series with male leads? Maybe the Greysons WASN’T such a bad idea after all…
Dawnie must furious that Reaper, a show that aren’t specificly for women 18-34 is doing so well
The best thing CW can do is keep Reaper but knowing them it will probably be axed by May. The CW is going to have a lot more slots next year so I hope they can find some room.
Reaper scored 2.4 million and 1.0 in 18-49 while 90210 got 2 million and 1.1, i’m now thinking reaper is safe.
Hi Bill,
I think Reaper’s renew/cancel index last year to be 1.06. Do you still have that information? If I’m remembering correctly, this year would refelct a greater than 10% increase in that index.
Bill W, we do have last years list. For future reference, you can also reach it in the link in the paragraph beginning “How did we come up with our Index?”
You’d think that based on last year that Reaper would be a lock to return, but the problem is that the CW average is so beaten down by the Sunday collapse among other problems, that it’s not as clear cut as it would be otherwise.
Hi Bill,
Thanks for that link. I see what you mean, Reaper’s average this year is actually slightly behind last year (125k), but not as much as One Tree Hill, which has lost an average of 230k demo viewers. I still think that Reaper’s showing against American Idle (no, not misspelled) has been surprising. Now that we are beginning to see multiyear renewals (Friday Night Lights, The Simpsons, etc.), maybe the CW should just give Reaper a blank check renewal for 13 episodes a year … to run as long as American Idle stays on the air!
Reaper is safe! but I think it will be a midseason show again
No show on the CW is safe, even if they’ve been announced as “renewed.” I hear Sumner Redstone is about to do something with the CW. It’s either the end of the CW, the end of Dawn, or the end of the 18-34 female demo target.
I know we should never trust a word an exec says, but John Martin, Time Warner’s executive VP and CFO, said this in an interview with B&C a couple of weeks ago:
The CW has been a strategic asset within Time Warner. It’s very small relative to Time Warner, but the value it provides our TV production business is still justifiable. Warner Bros. has five shows on The CW and some of them are doing quite well. Our ability to monetize those, whether it’s DVD sales or syndication, is significant.
As much as I’d like to see the end of CW, I’m thinking one of the latter two are more likely.