Dollhouse's 18-49 demo average continues to drop. I've been writing all along that the ratings of the later episodes will matter more than the earlier ones. Well, seven of the thirteen episodes have aired and time is running out for a comeback. Dollhouse will not return next season with its current numbers, so fans better hope for some second half heroics.
Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles is at its 2 minute warning, and the score is 63-7. The buzzer sounds on April 10.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES (FRI) | FOX | 1,632 | 3,530 | 0.46 | |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,530 | 0.59 | canceled |
| DOLLHOUSE | FOX | 2,143 | 3,530 | 0.61 | |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,530 | 0.67 | renewed |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 2,988 | 3,530 | 0.85 | final season |
| American Dad | FOX | 3,628 | 3,530 | 1.03 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 3,719 | 3,530 | 1.05 | final season |
| Bones | FOX | 4,014 | 3,530 | 1.14 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 4,154 | 3,530 | 1.18 | renewed |
| FRINGE | FOX | 4,586 | 3,530 | 1.30 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 4,641 | 3,530 | 1.31 | |
| 24 | FOX | 5,016 | 3,530 | 1.42 | |
| Lie To Me | FOX | 5,374 | 3,530 | 1.52 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,120 | 3,530 | 1.73 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. Note that the Fox average used above is its final Season to Date average prior to American Idol (see below).
Notes:
Prison Break is in its final season.
'Til Death has done terribly, and has been off Fox’s schedule since October, Sony Pictures has reportedly made Fox such a sweet deal for future episodes that Fox has bought another entire season, proving that at a low enough price that even a ratings black hole is worth suffering through.
Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles: The numbers above are for only its Friday airings that began on February 13, 2009. FYI, It's 13 episode 18-49 average on Monday this season was 2.726 million.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
“Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles is at its 2 minute warning, and the score is 63-7. The buzzer sounds on April 10.”
So you’re saying there’s still hope then.
O and Fringe returns next week. I have a reason to watch FOX again!
“So you’re saying there’s still hope then.”
Yeah, I find that kinda odd coming from the guys who’ve been proclaiming TSCC’s death all this time. Could it be that you’re allowing a small sliver of hope to taint your predictions?
*GASP* Who’d have thought? lol
Seriously though, I think the jury is still out on both TSCC and Dollhouse. If TSCC passes Dollhouse in the live ratings by its finale, then it would be interesting to see how FOX react. I hope they just decide “Screw it, renew the Sci-Fi fridays. Let’s see if Joss still has the skills and TSCC can grab some T4 attention.”
/wishful thinking.
if it were 63-7 at halftime, maybe some hope. But with 2 minutes left to go? No.
“if it were 63-7 at halftime, maybe some hope. But with 2 minutes left to go? No.”
Maybe it’s a game of chess TSCC is playing, and its director is Bobby Fischer.
Sacrifice queen = game over, but along comes the rook = checkmate. TSCC wins.
They don’t score chess that way, Veran. Besides, it’s a football reference.
I’d be surprised if Dollhouse returns and I wouldn’t be all that saddened. Dollhouse just isn’t classic Joss Whedon. Something is missing from series. It’s not a bad idea for a series and there’s a lot of potential here, but I don’t see us getting the chance to find out.
Is that the same topic they used last week? “Time Running Out For Dollhouse”
The only (scripted?) show that annoys me is Family Guy. It went from a nice escape to a soapbox for Seth MacFarlane to preach from on a weekly basis. I’d revive Futurama in its place, my opinion of course.
“They don’t score chess that way, Veran. Besides, it’s a football reference.”
*sigh* I know that. *rolls eyes*
“So you’re saying there’s still hope then.”
Jared, sarcasm just doesn’t read well on the Internet unless you use [sarcasm][/sarcasm] tags.
I dunno Harold, you obviously got it.
I don’t see TSCC passing Dollhouse with just two more episodes to go.
Possible (especially given how weak last week’s episode of Dollhouse was – I predict it will drop this week) but unlikely.
And the only that would matter is by HOW MUCH did it pass Dollhouse. And if Dollhouse is on the way down in the process, well…passing it going in the opposite direction isn’t going to help much.
If TSCC had been done properly, it would be where Fringe is now.
I really hope Fox takes into account that friday’s are just not good nights for TV shows. There just isn’t as many people watching tv on fridays. Are Dollhouses tivo and online viewings numbers still really high? IIR the pilot was number one in online viewings for that week.
Regardless they’ve just gotta let Dollhouse come back and give Joss some time to really get this show going. Personally I think the episodes have been getting better and better. The past 2 weeks have been awesome and this week’s looks crazy good as well.
TTSC – Wouldn’t be overly sad to see it go, I do like it but it really hasn’t been on par this year with last season.
April the problem isn’t that Dollhouse is on Friday the problem is that its bleeding viewers. It debuted with a 2.0 (better than a lot of people predicted) and had it maintained or at least stayed close to that I think most people would probably be looking at it as a renewal prospect given the Friday threshold. If Dollhouse weren’t bleeding viewers and dropping every week then it would be much easier to see it back next year.
On the subject of TSCC ‘passing’ Dollhouse – it doesn’t matter.
Partly because in a real sense TSCC hasn’t passed Dollhouse, Dollhouse has just gotten so low that its now on the same level as TSCC which is bad news for Dollhouse rather than good news for TSCC. If Dollhouse were still up near its debut episode ratings wise and TSCC were closing in on it then I think it would be something for fans to look at but ultimately TSCC and Dollhouse pulling similar numbers is just a sign of the freefall Dollhouse has been on.
With only two episodes left its going to take a miracle for Terminator to save itself or a fit of incompetence at Fox.
Try 80-0 with 3 seconds left. Terminator has NOOO chance. Even if by some miracle its series finale achieves 9 million viewers, its gone. Dollhouse isn’t returning either. Its not about Dollhouse stepping up or Dollhouse making a comeback, its gone. It seems to me that FOX has already made its plans and that doesn’t include Dollhouse in their 2009-2010 future. The series is simply burning off episodes. When TSCC ends on April 10, then Prison Break will return to burn off its remaining episodes in that slot. Every other series is good for renewal, except King of the Hill which will burn off its remaining episodes in the summer or next year.
Dan, my understanding is that King of the Hill has sufficient episodes to last until sometime next Fall. Not clear how Fox will use them in their schedule though.
The only shows on FOX I care about are going to be renewed anyway…this is the life!
I think FOX will try something different Fridays, at least they better.
I’m quite impressed with Lie To Me’s next-best-thing-to-House rating on this Index
I don’t get why the numbers of The Simpsons are declining, the two episodes on Sunday both had a 3.2 rating, that should be more than 4,200 viewers, ergo: the numbers should go up.
How come the numbers for Friday Night Lights, and Ghost Whisperer are allowed to be SUBPAR because its a “friday night” but Dollhouse is not granted the same condition. Is it the cost of the show?