I've received a few e-mails today and I'm sure people have posted links in the comments to a story that FOX is considering renewing Dollhouse. Ah, the Internet, where speculation runs rampant. So let me add my $.02 of speculation.
Until announcements are made, of course that is fair speculation, but these kind of stories seem to suggest that while the ratings are worse than even FOX expected them to be on Friday nights, that FOX is mesmerized by the critical acclaim for recent episodes. Simply put, that's complete BS.
While it's true the vaunted sixth episode was generally well-received by critics, it did absolutely nothing for the show's ratings. And anecdotally, critical reception of the two episodes that followed has been mixed. But it's irrelevant really. Here's the deal: the show won't be back if it keeps pulling 1.4 overnight ratings among adults 18-49. FOX will not consider renewing it with those numbers. I think it needs to get to a 1.6, and probably a 1.7 for FOX to even consider bringing it back for a second season.
While it's definitely possible the show could turn the ratings around and improve them, it isn't very probable. The trend has been down since the premiere and while things have flattened out the last couple of weeks, the trend hasn't really been reversed.
Some are suggesting that things will improve when Dollhouse has Prison Break as a lead-in. I'm not thinking there will be much improvement, and certainly not in the range of 15%-20% improvement to the 18-49 ratings that seem necessary at a minimum to keep the show afloat.
Will FOX keep an open mind and see what happens? I certainly think that is likely. But I doubt that FOX execs are truly any more optimistic than I am that it will actually happen. And I've seen nothing to indicate, "hey, we believe in this show and are going to spend a couple extra million to promote it!"
FOX is simply playing it in a fashion where if it does miraculously turn around they, like the fans, can be ecstatic, and if it doesn't it is well positioned to say, "Hey, we tried, it didn't work."
UPDATE: from our friend, "Travis Yanan" who posted in the comments:
FYI, Friday’s episode pulled a 1.5 in finals.
A 1/10th of a ratings point improvement over the prior week isn't necessarily a trend, but up is up, and 1.5 is closer to 1.7 than 1.4 is!
My real issue with Dollhouse’s ratings going forward is that Prison Break is somehow going to be the magical missing piece of the puzzle and improve things. I’m prepared to be proved wrong on this but unless Fox is really going to promote the return of Prison Break (and I’m not sure why they would since it has absolutely been shipped to Friday’s to die) I don’t really see the show being a drastic improvement on the current Terminator lead-in.
At best I think Prison Break gets maybe a tenth or two higher than Terminator on Friday, which is pretty much what it was doing on Monday I think. The question then becomes does that audience stick around for Dollhouse or does Prison Break pull better numbers than Dollhouse? I suspect Prison Break will like pull better numbers, which really would be the final nail in the coffin for Dollhouse.
Having said that at the risk of fuelling some kind of new Dollhouse conspiracy theory let me say this – I think it’s a shame that Fox couldn’t line the sixth episode of Dollhouse up with the return of Prison Break. Had they been able to promote those as a package deal the numbers might have gone up a little.
On top of that Dollhouse really needs to be able to stand on its own feet at this point and prove that it has a decent audience that Fox can invest in. And Robert I disagree with you, I think now its dropped this low the show needs to rebound higher than a 1.6 or 7.
Have to agree. The last two episodes have been relatively weak compared to episode six. Episode seven damaged the characterization by trying to have DeWitt seem FUNNY, which was ridiculous. Episode eight was muddled, the point it was trying to make was unclear at best.
A new show needs continuous momentum, a rapid pace and a clear sense of identity. Dollhouse is losing that.
I tend to agree with Alex’s point in other threads that the character of Echo is not working as a focus of the show. Not only is she difficult to relate to, but her influence is split with the FBI agent’s focus. The POV of the show is not clear.
I actually sort of enjoyed last Friday’s Dollhouse, it was nice seeing the “real” dolls, but since they forgot everything, the whole episode was pointless. It’s hard to get to into a show where the main characters get amnesia every episode.
Well, you really hit the nail on the head with your FNL predictions – I see no reason to doubt your future-predicting ability whatsoever. Maybe it would be best to avoid the matter-of-fact “certain to be canceled” language – it would lend credibility to your blog.
The website on which the mentioned article appears is owned by the writer of the article. The article cites a “stability index” for TV shows that no one on Earth cares about – least of all FOX.
The article is shameless sourceless speculation written by someone who has almost no insight into the television industry other than just being another fanboy and choosing an awful name for a website that was purchased by a cable company that has worse taste in name branding than he did.
If your dog told you that Fox was considering renewing Dollhouse, your dog would have more credibility than the article’s writer.
We (or specifically Bill Gorman) predicted very accurately that FNL would only be saved if DirecTV wrote a check. They wrote a check. Sometimes you have to read the prose of the Renew/Cancel Index. Sucks, I know, but…we were right!
I also wonder about the supposed magic of the return of Prison Break vis a vis Dollhouse. I’m not convinced PB will do that much better than TSCC, and I doubt it may have anything more than the tiniest effect on Dollhouse numbers.
I should add that the article’s writer claiming that Fox was considering renewing Dollhouse apparently doesn’t know enough to know that Prision Break is taking over TSCC’s slot.
I’d provide the link, but the mentioned article is the worst kind of Internet propaganda. It’s just completely made up B.S.
If someone other than “a guy who just got rich off a cable company buying his old website and sees this as the key time to drive traffic to his new website so he makes up B.S. rumors” reports serious Dollhouse renewal consideration, I’ll treat that commentary much differently.
Harold, since this website makes you so angry, I would strongly recommend not coming here anymore. It can’t’ be healthy if every time you come to this site, your blood pressure goes up.
ok I just figured out you were talking about the other site. I’m very very sorry for being so stupid.
Stacy, I think Harold is *agreeing with us*, and disagreeing with the site I was referencing. Irving, on the other hand…
Stacy, Bill and I make similar mistakes frequently, no harm, no foul.
Yeah, a stability index is ridiculous. If a show gets 2 million viewers and a 1.0 in the demo every episode it airs, it’s getting a consistent number of viewers and will score high on a stability index but it’s not going to stay on the big 4 for very long.
i would venture a guess that Prison Break averages anywhere from 1.5 to 1.8
if dollhouse sees an average of 1.6 with PB as a lead-in, i will consider it an accomplishment.
Yeah, that thing with the stability of the ratings was funny. Even if somebody cared for stability, ratings of Dollhouse are far from stable. That article also mentioned relatively low cost for the show – I do not think its true either. I’ve seen numbers like 2 million per Dollhouse episode, which is less then Fringe, but can be considered average.
I have no idea what Prison Break will do for Dollhouse, but I do think that it will do quite a bit better than Terminator. In fact, I have to wonder if PB, since its been around so long, and is closing out the series, wouldn’t do its regular Monday numbers on Friday.
I’m not sure anyone was going out on a ledge predicting FNL would only survive if DirecTV wrote a check. Given that that was the sole reason for renewal last season, it was pretty obvious that was going to be the case this year as well.
Dollhouse has had way more discussion about it’s ratings than is warranted. It’s like going to a horse race where the same lame horse that lost it’s last 6 races is in the starting gate again and people argue over whether or not the horse could show.
As far as any correlation between quality and ratings… how do people know the episode will be good before they watch it? I can kinda see it if the idea is that word of mouth (to a Nielsen household) AFTER episode 6 would cause a ratings uptick, but there would never be reason to think episode 6 would be higher rated…. unless people on the East Coast call their Neilsen-measured friends on the west coast after it airs and beg them to watch.
Dollhouse is free to go and everyone should just let it. No miracles are going to happen. Fox could be airing reruns of House or The Nutty Professor every Friday and do better. Prison Break isn’t gonna help and if it takes Prison Break to get people to watch Dollhouse… well, that’s just scary.
Ah! I just figured out what the source website is! I subscribe to its feed but still call it by its previous name. So, I was completely stumped, especially since I skipped over the article when I saw its title in my feed reader before this one — seemed more like “Read Whenever” than “Read Right Now.”
I’ve since read the article, and I agree the article doesn’t merit serious attention. The owner also does seem to have a tendency towards self-promotion, especially after the recent website name change and the issues surrounding it, but I remain a fan because of his history covering the genre online.
Brandon, I agree with your take completely. BTW, it isn’t our desire to go out on a limb or make bold predictions to draw traffic. It is our desire to be correct, and make reasonable predictions based on the data. The reasonable prediction for FNL was it wouldn’t come back without a check from DirecTV. I agree completely that by positioning it that way, we weren’t going out on a limb. We were just calling it based on data and past history, but that’s all we were trying to do.
The guy who started this (Michael Hinman)… Back at the beginning of the season (Fall 2008), he wrote about “insider info” that TSCC is one step away from cancellation. Three weeks later we received word of the back 9 pickup. As much as I’d like Dollhouse to stick around, Hinman is not a source to rely on, so his words do not reassure me.