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April 7: Renewal & Cancellation Prospects For Your Favorite Shows

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April 7th, 2009

The Renew or Cancel Index will next be updated on April 21

I've broken each network's data for scripted shows out into its own separate post to keep the discussions more on topic, find them at the links below.

CLICK THESE LINKS TO SEE EACH NETWORK'S SCRIPTED SHOWS:

ABC: Castle’s Foundation Is Shaky, Motherhood,CupidTed Are Goners

CBS: Will the Cancel Bell Toll For Eleventh Hour?

CW: Don’t Fear The Reaper’s Lack Of Producers?

Fox: Dollhouse Foreclosure Likely

NBC: NBC Bubble Show Fans Looking For a Scapegoat? Blame Jay!
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UNSCRIPTED SHOWS FOR ALL NETWORKS

For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. Since we, and you, don't care much about unscripted shows, and the Index isn't all that good in predicting their future, I don't worry about predictions, but here is the data for reference.


PROGRAM Net STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) Network Avg. STD 18-49 Renew/ Cancel index
IN HARM'S WAY CW 355 1,040 0.34
HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7P FOX 1,352 3,530 0.38
HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7:30P FOX 1,539 3,530 0.44
GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD 830P CBS 1,778 3,900 0.46
AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS NBC 1,453 3,170 0.46
GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD CBS 1,856 3,900 0.48
CHOPPING BLOCK NBC 1,548 3,170 0.49
SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER FOX 1,763 3,530 0.50
DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI NBC 1,722 3,170 0.54
WIFE SWAP ABC 1,939 3,550 0.55
HOWIE DO IT 8:30 NBC 1,748 3,170 0.55
48 Hours Mystery CBS 2,164 3,900 0.55
DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS FOX 1,984 3,530 0.56
HOWIE DO IT 8P NBC 1,810 3,170 0.57
SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME ABC 2,029 3,550 0.57
Dateline SUN-7PM NBC 1,910 3,170 0.60
OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS ABC 2,175 3,550 0.61
HOLE IN WALL THU-8P FOX 2,184 3,530 0.62
Supernanny ABC 2,199 3,550 0.62
Dateline FRI NBC 1,964 3,170 0.62
COPS FOX 2,190 3,530 0.62
HOMELAND SECURITY USA ABC 2,282 3,550 0.64
MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD CBS 2,515 3,900 0.64
13 - FEAR IS REAL CW 705 1,040 0.68
AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK FOX 2,438 3,530 0.69
COPS 2 FOX 2,537 3,530 0.72
20/20-FRI ABC 2,614 3,550 0.74
MOMMA'S BOYS NBC 2,369 3,170 0.75
HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P FOX 2,645 3,530 0.75
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 NBC 2,512 3,170 0.79
AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS ABC 2,845 3,550 0.80
Kitchen Nightmares FOX 2,832 3,530 0.80
DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED NBC 2,607 3,170 0.82
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P ABC 2,952 3,550 0.83
PRIMETIME:WHAT WOULD U DO ABC 3,083 3,550 0.87
SUPERSTARS OF DANCE NBC 2,874 3,170 0.91
STYLISTA CW 988 1,040 0.95
60 Minutes CBS 3,878 3,900 0.99
SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL ABC 3,572 3,550 1.01
Amazing Race 14 CBS 4,102 3,900 1.05
Amazing Race 13 CBS 4,180 3,900 1.07
FOX NASCAR SPRINT CUP PST FOX 3,832 3,530 1.09
TRUE BEAUTY ABC 3,923 3,550 1.11
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P ABC 4,486 3,550 1.26
APPRENTICE 8 NBC 4,215 3,170 1.33
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 NBC 4,260 3,170 1.34
FOX NASCAR SPRINT CUP FOX 4,819 3,530 1.37
Biggest Loser 6 NBC 4,329 3,170 1.37
SURVIVOR: TOCANTINS CBS 5,361 3,900 1.37
SURVIVOR: GABON CBS 5,543 3,900 1.42
DANCING W/STARS RESULTS ABC 5,071 3,550 1.43
HELL'S KITCHEN FOX 5,120 3,530 1.45
BACHELOR, THE ABC 5,245 3,550 1.48
Biggest Loser 7 NBC 4,996 3,170 1.58
OT, THE FOX 5,772 3,530 1.64
Dancing with the Stars ABC 6,202 3,550 1.75
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK NBC 5,578 3,170 1.76
AMERICA'S Top Model - 6 CW 2,301 1,040 2.21
AMERICA'S Top Model-5 CW 2,564 1,040 2.47
NBC Sunday Night Football NBC 8,533 3,170 2.69
American Idol-TUESDAY FOX 12,561 3,530 3.56
American Idol-WEDNESDAY FOX 12,566 3,530 3.56

- Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

All viewership numbers are Live+SD.

We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.

 
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