Castle continues to drop from its premiere ratings, which were good enough for renewal. Its recent airings have fallen solidly into the danger zone and its Index continues to drop. Last night it had a 2.4 rating for the 18-49 demo. At that level, I give it a very slim chance of coming back.
Without a Dancing with the Stars lead-in, Samantha Who? continues to do badly. If ABC had a strong scripted lineup, it might be into trouble, emphasis on If.
In the Motherhood is a dead show walking. Cupid got little love in its premiere, I wouldn't look for it to come back either. Better off Ted's dead.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P | ABC | 2,183 | 3,550 | 0.61 | final season |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,264 | 3,550 | 0.64 | canceled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,365 | 3,550 | 0.67 | canceled |
| SCRUBS-WED 8PM | ABC | 2,420 | 3,550 | 0.68 | final season |
| SCRUBS-TU 9PM | ABC | 2,447 | 3,550 | 0.69 | final season |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9PM | ABC | 2,460 | 3,550 | 0.69 | final season |
| IN THE MOTHERHOOD | ABC | 2,517 | 3,550 | 0.71 | |
| BETTER OFF TED | ABC | 2,532 | 3,550 | 0.71 | |
| SCRUBS-TU 9:30PM | ABC | 2,543 | 3,550 | 0.72 | final season |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,549 | 3,550 | 0.72 | canceled |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,856 | 3,550 | 0.80 | final season |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 2,941 | 3,550 | 0.83 | canceled |
| CUPID | ABC | 2,982 | 3,550 | 0.84 | |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,011 | 3,550 | 0.85 | coming back |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,362 | 3,550 | 0.95 | |
| CASTLE | ABC | 3,571 | 3,550 | 1.01 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 4,001 | 3,550 | 1.13 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 4,528 | 3,550 | 1.28 | coming back |
| LOST | ABC | 5,822 | 3,550 | 1.64 | coming back |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 6,447 | 3,550 | 1.82 | coming back |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 7,039 | 3,550 | 1.98 | coming back |
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Notes:
According to Jim: After 8 seasons, and recent horrible ratings, but presumably great sydication profits, ABC's According to Jim looks like its prime-time run is coming to an end this season as one of the stars says the stage has been bulldozed. That seems pretty final to me.
Scrubs: Eight seasons is the end for Scrubs as well. Update: Or perhaps not. I am doubting that retraction, I believe he spoke the truth initially and then got his hand slapped and tried to backtrack. I'm keeping it marked as final season.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
great loard i think the strike did in tv for good
Castle keeps getting better; I hope it comes back.
Bill, i gotta say. Castle seems healthier post Dancing than Samantha. It’s obvious that without Dancing, Samantha’s index sucks. it’s doing just as bad as motherhood, while Castle can at least stay above a 2.0
i honestly think Castle has a better shot at renewal than samantha who. i guess we’ll see soon enough.
Bill,
I have been following these numbers for the last few months. It seems ABC will have at least 8 to 9 hours of scripted shows to replace as it is without canceling a moderately successful Castle program. I would think this show would survive with these numbers on Monday at 10E/9C slot as it is outperforming what Boston Legal did in the same slot for many years?
What are the impressions you are receiving that cause the obvious negative reflection.
Lizard…
I wonder too Lizard. It is still above the .92 rating. I’m really enjoying castle and hope to see it renewed. (Loved the laser tag)
By the way, I do realize the 2.4 for last night is worse then its been, but the negative feedback has been all over the net before now that this show will probably be canceled.
Lizard…
Wow, with only 2 years in contract left, I don’t think ABC will cancel Desperate Housewives.
it’s safe to put “coming back” next to LOST, GREY’s and DH! I’d say Private Practice is a gimme too, but LOST, DH, and Grey’s (I think) have all been given long-term (beyond this season, anyway) renewals already.
Dear ABC,
Thanks for putting the horrible Saget sitcom before “Castle” and lowering their ratings. Really appreciate that.
I think that the fact that ABC has so few scripted shows returning bodes well for Castle. As long as it doesn’t sink much lower, it should survive. If the unusuals bombs, I think it gives Castle an even better shot.
Nate,
Yeah, I saw the last half of that. Better Off Ted, In the Motherhood, and now Surviving Suburbia. I’d say ABC is three for three with their new sitcoms.
Lizard…
CASTLE ISN’T SHAKY AT ALL
roll eyes whoever said that!
Thanks for putting the horrible Saget sitcom before “Castle” and lowering their ratings. Really appreciate that.
Assuming that Suburbia overnight number holds, it performed better than Castle. So how exactly did it lower Castle’s rating?
ABC should really adopt the NBC model next season and add some daily show at 10:00. Maybe Nightline and then move Kimmel to 11:30? 20/20 can air on Friday’s instead of Nightline. It’s actually a pretty good idea, they have about just as many successful shows as NBC.
Definitely back: Desperate Housewives, Grey’s Anatomy, Lost, Ugly Betty, Brothers & Sisters, Private Practice, Samantha Who? And since ABC always renews 1 midseason series, Castle will likely return too. I believe that ABC will renew Surviving Suburbia since its numbers are moderate but still acceptable. The veteran comedy duo of Jim and Scrubs are ending this year, the freshman comedy duo Better off Ted and In the Motherhood are also dead as is looking likely that Cupid and The Unusuals will be axed too. I definitely want to see how ABC’s fall schedule turns out.
If you have not checked out Cupid, you should. I know people are hating on the premise, but the pilot was solidly entertaining (so says the man who thinks almost nothing is these days). Rob Thomas put on a really good show in Veronica Mars, so I was surprised at all the skepticism headed Cupid’s way before it premiered. Never saw the original, but I always heard that was a good show, too.
It may not make it, but with 9 out of 10 shows being cookie cutters crap at best, it’s great to see something so original be so solid right out of the gate.
And, yeah, I do know that it’s ratings were poor. That’s OK. I’ll take whatever number of episodes of interesting stuff I can get these days.
Lizardman, last night’s Castle had a 2.3 rating for adults 18-49. That’s 85% of ABC’s season average in that demo. It’s possible that it survives at that level, but not likely.
Regarding Castle: The NCAA Basketball Finals was on at the same time. Could that not have affected Castle? I know this site doesn’t like to blame other things going on for a bad rating, Castle was still second in the time slot after the Basketball.
castle,ted,motherhood and cupid are all in the toilet already because abc cancelled so many shows this season!! people are angry!!! grrrrrr!!i’m mad about them canceling mostly life on mars(really mad about that one) .and dirty sexy money(past mad and onto seething),and eli,(was at least funny!!)i’ personally(and have many followers)made a point of not watching any of thier new shows!!so there abc!!!grrrrrrrr!!!!!
ruth, Only 1 in 3 shows ever get a second season. If people stopped watching a network every time the net canceled a show they liked, they’d be reading a lot more books.