The upcoming Jay Leno Show will suck 5 hours out of NBC’s prime-time schedule, and like a hungry vampire it’s going to claim one or more of the following shows: Chuck, My Name is Earl, Law & Order, and Medium. All are shows that would likely have come back if NBC had those 5 hours to fill, but there’s no room with Mr. Leno moving in.
If you’re a fan of one of those shows, and it gets canceled, Blame Jay!
Fans of Kings, Life, Knight Rider and Kath & Kim have no easy scapegoat. Even without Jay, those shows would have been canceled.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
|PROGRAM||Net||STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000)||Network Avg. STD 18-49||Renew/ Cancel index||Status|
|FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS||NBC||1,746||3,170||0.55||renewed|
|MY OWN WORST ENEMY||NBC||2,636||3,170||0.83||canceled|
|KATH & KIM||NBC||2,824||3,170||0.89|
|LAW AND ORDER||NBC||2,891||3,170||0.91|
|MY NAME IS EARL||NBC||3,257||3,170||1.03|
|LAW AND ORDER:SVU||NBC||4,463||3,170||1.41||returning|
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. I have adjusted the NBC adults 18-49 season to date average to remove the increase (of 370,000) it received during the Super Bowl week because that increase had nothing to do with the normal viewership of the network or any of its other shows.
Friday night – Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I’m indicating renewal for them.
Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.