The upcoming Jay Leno Show will suck 5 hours out of NBC's prime-time schedule, and like a hungry vampire it's going to claim one or more of the following shows: Chuck, My Name is Earl, Law & Order, and Medium. All are shows that would likely have come back if NBC had those 5 hours to fill, but there's no room with Mr. Leno moving in.
If you're a fan of one of those shows, and it gets canceled, Blame Jay!
Fans of Kings, Life, Knight Rider and Kath & Kim have no easy scapegoat. Even without Jay, those shows would have been canceled.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 1,167 | 3,170 | 0.37 | canceled |
| FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS | NBC | 1,746 | 3,170 | 0.55 | renewed |
| KINGS | NBC | 1,812 | 3,170 | 0.57 | |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 1,969 | 3,170 | 0.62 | canceled |
| LIFE (WED) | NBC | 2,215 | 3,170 | 0.70 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 2,400 | 3,170 | 0.76 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2,636 | 3,170 | 0.83 | canceled |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 2,824 | 3,170 | 0.89 | |
| Law And Order | NBC | 2,891 | 3,170 | 0.91 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 3,172 | 3,170 | 1.00 | |
| MEDIUM | NBC | 3,232 | 3,170 | 1.02 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,257 | 3,170 | 1.03 | |
| 30 Rock | NBC | 4,252 | 3,170 | 1.34 | returning |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,463 | 3,170 | 1.41 | returning |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,523 | 3,170 | 1.43 | finished |
| HEROES | NBC | 4,857 | 3,170 | 1.53 | returning |
| OFFICE | NBC | 5,343 | 3,170 | 1.69 | returning |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. I have adjusted the NBC adults 18-49 season to date average to remove the increase (of 370,000) it received during the Super Bowl week because that increase had nothing to do with the normal viewership of the network or any of its other shows.
Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I'm indicating renewal for them.
Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
Heroes is definitely back for next season.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
if it’s any consolation, Robert Bianco of the USA Today hated Southland:
The Unusuals is light, Southland is dark. And where The Unusuals is ultimately unsuccessful in its attempts to entertain, Southland is unbearable — a pretentious, foul-mouthed, overly arty chore that will leave you with a headache should you linger too long.
Of all the bubble shows, Chuck has the most potential to break out. Its cast is still young and marketable and its fanbase is not only one of the most affluent in TV, they are some of the more tech savvy.
I’ve asked this before in previous weeks… what’s the likelihood of Parenthood pilot getting picked up, and what other possibilities are there existing shows or new pilots filling Monday, Wednesday, or Sunday night 8PM timeslots?
Zeb, we focus on data here and renewal and cancellation prospects based on data. The kind of things you’re talking about aren’t things we can analyze with our focus. There are other blogs (Futon Critic, Television Without Pity, Zap2It, etc) much better equipped to handle that.
I believe The Unusuals will not succeed just because of the timeslot. The same amount of viewers will watch it as they did Life on Mars. Southland at the very least will be known as the last new series to premiere and air at 10pm before NBC gave the slot to Leno. With Friday Night Lights, The Office, Heroes, 30 Rock, Biggest Loser, and SVU definitely back. The bubble shows (that currently have some kind of chance for renewal) are L&O, Medium, My Name is Earl, and Chuck. I believe these four will be back but some for midseason. Either way NBC’s scheduling are gonna be the most interesting to look at.
I agree Dan, I’m looking at May 5 with anticipation(NBC upfronts). except for the fact that that week will be finals week, but i digress.
@Robert, but those sites don’t indulge Chuckaholics like TVByTheNumbers does
My question wasn’t really directed specifically at you guys, it was more toward anyone who sees it.
Thank you Leno, for getting garbage like Chuck off my tv.
Southland is unbearable — a pretentious, foul-mouthed, overly arty chore that will leave you with a headache should you linger too long.
Ouch
I read somewhere recently (yes, I know that’s a solid source!) that NBC was considering bringing back a lot of its bubble shows for 13-episode seasons and running them one after the other, rather than canning half the shows and giving 22 to the remainders. Perhaps then, if Leno tanks, they can just extend the season orders to their 13ers… What do you guys think of that idea, and if they go for it, which do you think they’d keep around at reduced orders?
I think that would be fine. I just want Chuck back, and 13 episodes is good, even if I would like a full season.
Alden, its not an entirely crazy idea, but it’s unusual enough that I’d not have any guess based on past numbers.
If Angela has a way to save CHUCK or LIFE she will. MEDIUM and LAW & ORDER on the other hand…
Robert, since this site is about stats and given the strong and numerous love/hate posts Chuck gets, do you see a signficant increase in Tuesday views as opposed to other days of the week?
“If Angela has a way to save CHUCK or LIFE she will. MEDIUM and LAW & ORDER on the other hand…”
Life is dead. Law and Order was able to build out of its lousy 1.4 demo to a 2.2 demo. Medium and Chuck are on the bubble.
David, for the overnight posts, Monday night’s data is typically one of the most popular (though crazy as it is — Friday is big too
. I can’t ascribe it to any one show — I think Chuck and Heroes are likely the primary drivers, but there is interest in Castle, etc.
Tuesdays in general are typically our busiest day for the site, but it’s not because of Chuck — it’s because that’s when the weekly Nielsen data is released and we do a LOT of posts. Today alone we’ve done around 50 postings. Most days it’s ~10.
Just so you know SVU has been officially renewed.
Raymond, correct you are. Fixed.
RJ, LIFE isn’t dead in Angela’s eyes. Don’t be stunned if it gets a short order pick up to be aired during a down time.
Yes, a show with a 1.4 demo will be renewed. What a load of garbage.
Robert, thanks. I found this site looking for ratings on a specific show and have now become a bit of a ratings junkie for ratings sake. Not sure if that’s a good thing, but I do appreciate your’s and Bill’s insights.