Forbes ran a story a couple of days ago that ranked which shows make the most money solely based on advertising spending estimates from TNS at the end of January. Some of the results will surprise you (and me). It has 24 leading the pack, and Heroes, Survivor, CSI, Extreme Makeover, and Worst Week (yes, that Worst Week) all ahead of House, even though House has the much better demo numbers of all of those shows (even 24!).
Based on the estimated cost per 30 second advertising spot, they came up with revenue per 30 minutes so that 30 minute shows could be easily compared.
While the article does go into some disclaiming the truth of it is you can concoct these sorts of lists with estimates any way you want, and come up with rankings. Because there is no way to quantify or validate the numbers because the networks aren't going to release any of the actual results.
Although I think it's a certainty that House is making more on advertising revenue for 30 second spots than Heroes is (or was, even on January 31), it's not really different than Jeff Zucker talking about how well NBC manages the margins. Because we'll never actually know! We won't wind up seeing any data about how well the broadcast network manages margins. You will never see anything but rough estimates since it is grouped within NBC Universal in any of GE's reporting.
I don't fault Forbes or TNS, but like horoscopes, it is the sort of thing that should probably be used for entertainment purposes only.
Suprised that B&S is on the list but 60 Minutes not. Also where’s Law and Order SVU?
Maybe these rates would make more sense if looking at last season’s ratings.
Anyway, I found more interesting how much of total viewers are 18-49, calculated by using their numbers and yours.
More than half – Heroes
%: About half – American Idol, Desperate, Grey’s, Brothers/Sisters, House, Private Practice
Less than half – 24, 2.5, Survivor, Home Edition, Worst Week
Less than third – Dancing, CSI
I mean, I could have just thought about it and it would have made sense, but I don’t pay attention to the totals when overnights are posted. Surprised that Dancing and CSI are THAT old-skewing.
Heroes and 24 doesn’t surprise as they have mostly male audiences which are harder to reach and therefore more attractive to advertisers. American Idol was obviously number 1 as it’s still a ratings hit and attracts a younger audience compared to DWTS which is high rated but older skewing.
Worst Week had a plum slot after TAAHM which made it more attractive to advertisers but that proved to be a flop.
no lost? that doesn’t make sense
Just for fun, I calculated the cost per spot per 18-49 viewer (so average price for a commercial divided by average number of 18-49 viewers). It’s interesting how most of them are in the 30’s, so even if it’s guesswork they did, points for mostly consistency:
Idol: 50
24: 73
Desperate: 36, 2.5 Men: 38, Grey’s: 35, Dancing: 37, Survivor: 37, CSI: 33.5, Heroes: 39.5, House: 31, Home Edition: 38
Brothers & Sisters 43, Worst Week: 46, Private Practice: 40.5
those would be cost per spot per 1000 18-49 viewers (CPM). On a per viewer basis they are making $.073 per 30 second spot. I doubt it really works out like that, but it is fun to look at!
Lists like this usually come from commercial rates set out at the beginning of the season (thus, Lost isn’t on the list). They are essentially based on last years ratings. If a series falls below projections, the network has to essentially give advertisers free spots to make up the difference, which are called “make-goods.” I can’t even begin to imagine how many make-goods NBC has had to offer for Heroes this season.
Thus, if a show does badly, it’s not necessarily reflected in the ad rates for the series that season. Where you would see it reflected is in the “spot advertising” a network offers (commercials that aren’t locked in before the season begins). Networks keep spot advertising as a hedge against a show doing better than expect. For instance, I would bet that CBS’s spot advertising rates on Ghost Whisperer are significantly more expensive than what the network would have offered advertisers before the season began as the show is up some 30% this season. However, if a network has to do “make goods,” this spot advertising revenue is severely limited.
i am about 98% sure that this whole thing is mostly fabricated. I saw a feature like this on Adweek earlier in the season that was much closer to what one would *think* the ad rates would be based on 18-49 data and the few other factors discussed on this site.
Does this include product placement within the shows themselves? I’d imagine this would be a factor in some of the above shows milking so much more money. A lot of the major reality shows do some product placement, as do other shows (e.g. Nissan pimping its cars on Heroes), so this may be a factor as well, especially since that sort of advertising will stick despite DVRs and online video.
Yeah, well, maybe with this kind of formula, you can make those numbers… But in reality, Heroes certainly isn’t make more money than house… But hey, like he said, that’s like horoscopes. You read it becaus it’s funny.
But hey… where is Chuck!?!?!?!
Ha ha
Lost had 35 million streamers on ABC.com last month alone.
Surely it’s one of the biggest money makers….
Cookson, Lost had 35 million STREAMS, not streamers. But I think the comment about it likely being based on surveying from the beginning of the season when Lost wasn’t even on is probably correct.
uhh i hope this does not convince CBS to keep Worst Week…..long live Christine
I’m sorry but how can 24 make more for 30 sec ad spots when clearly Desperate Housewives is STILL the queen in the 18-49 demo. Sure, it may not have more males than 24 but I can only think the rate was high for 24 due it missing out last year.
The top scripted shows in 18-49 demo are:
1) Desperate Housewives
2) Grey’s Anatomy
3) LOST (not 2 sure about this)
am I wrong?
As I said, treat it like a horoscope — for entertainment purposes only. My horoscope for 4/10 was:
If any financial matters look too good to be true today, you had better look again! Don’t let yourself be pressured by the suits in the room. This is your money we’re talking about here, and you can’t let it go without knowing exactly what’s going to happen next. There is a lot of uncertainty in the air, so over the next few days you need to be careful about business deals in general. Don’t be paranoid, because that will put people off. Just be sure you know what you’re getting involved in.
I didn’t run into a single suit all day who was trying to get my money, and there are no business deals to be paranoid over and, yeah, I’d be pretty surprised if 24 made more revenue from 30 second spot advertising than Desperate Housewives. But, 24 does do better with men 18-34, who are often alleged to be the holy grail. But still I’d be shocked if those $$s/30 seconds are ringing true in the scatter market!
What Doug said.
Also, the headline (“TV’s Biggest Moneymakers”) on the Forbes article is a bit misleading. They just let TNS calculate the ad revenue a show – theoretically – generates. Continuing Doug’s line of argument, this is mostly an indicator of what the network believed, at the start of the season, how well the media agencies would predict a show to do. (Syntax check… no, seems about right.)
What they really should have done to be true to the headline: calculate the contribution margin, ie. subtract production (and marketing) cost from the revenue of all ad inventory sold. But not even Forbes gets that kind of information.
Some of the idea’s raised for Heroes don’t surprise me, its just the fact that Heroes costs so much its hard to make money: a reason why NBC proberly knows that with large budget cuts Heroes can become a large money making factory for NBC. (Plus the quality is definity back with Fuller)
Plus isn’t veiwer engagement very important: plus it does hit good demos for young male.
I’ve never really asked but surely half hour comedies, should cost half the cost of an hourly, as they only have half the advertisement. But I wonder whats the budget for say 30 Rock in comparison to say Law & Order: SVU (they have similiar demos).
But those numbers aren’t Heroes current numbers so they might be less reliable.
Forbs are idiots. They ran a story a couple of months ago about how successful Dawn Ostrof’s female 18-34 strategy is.
Its an interesting list even though the numbers probably aren’t especially accurate and foolproof.
I do however think a list on shows that are costing the networks the most money because their ratinga are lower than they should be would be more interesting. Because sure at the start of the year NBC might have been able to sell spots for Heroes at that price but advertisers who paid that sure as hell aren’t going to be happy with it now.