In Bill's absence, I'm doing some network-by-network summaries. Yesterday, I took a look at NBC, where, because of the situation with the Jay Leno show, there is quite a bit of uncertainty for quite a few shows.
The situation at ABC is different, where there seems to be a whole lot more certainty, and little left to guess at. Here's the rundown of renew and cancel decisions for ABC that have already been made:
| Network | Already Canceled | Already Renewed |
| ABC | According to Jim (final season) | Ugly Betty |
| ABC | Eli Stone | Brothers & Sisters |
| ABC | Pushing Daisies | Grey's Anatomy |
| ABC | Scrubs (final season) | Lost |
| ABC | Dirty Sexy Money | Desperate Housewives |
| ABC | Boston Legal | |
| ABC | Life on Mars |
While there are seven scripted shows where no decision has been announced yet, as sure as the sun rises in the east, you can count on Private Practice coming back. But how to segment the rest. Note: there haven't been any official announcements made on any of these shows, they are merely predictions based on numbers:
| Network | Won't be renewed | Will be renewed | Not Sure Yet |
| ABC | In the Motherhood | Private Practice | Samantha Who? |
| ABC | Cupid | Surviving Suburbia | |
| ABC | Castle | Better off Ted | |
| ABC | The Unusuals |
Let's start with Samantha Who? and Surviving Suburbia which is the only thing to have survived the CW's ill-fated partnership with MRC for its Sunday night programming. But first a general disclaimer about 30 minute sitcoms: both the networks and studios seem to play faster and looser with 30 minute comedies than one hour scripted dramas. Studios discount them and networks like them for a variety of reasons ranging from syndication revenue, to something fairly inexpensive to throw under the bus against American Idol.
And now a huge disclaimer, just based on the numbers alone, we would never have predicted According to Jim would be back for another season. But it was back for another season!
Surviving Suburbia
We only have two data points, but so far, the ratings for Surviving Suburbia have been pretty decent. But it's had the benefit of the Dancing with the Stars Lead in. In its premiere a week ago, Suburbia bowed with a 3.0 rating, good enough to rank 25th with adults 18-49 for the week. In preliminary number for its second airing last night, it averaged a 2.8 with adults 18-49. The big question remains whether that will keep eroding and, even if it doesn't, how does ABC think it would do without the DWTS lead-in.
Update: stripped of its 2 minute-ish DWTS overrun, SS drew a 2.6 adults 18-49 in last night's fina ratings. Down 13% from its premiere last week.
Samantha Who?
While much-loved by critics, it's a show that had always been propped up by its Dancing with the Stars lead-in. But because of schedule jockeying, ABC won't have to guess at how Samantha Who does without the DWTS lead-in. Last week airing on Thursday at 8pm, with no lead-in it averaged a 1.4 rating with adults 18-49, ranking 66th among broadcast shows for the week with adults 18-49. These are normally numbers where we'd definitively guess CANCEL. But, it's sitcom, one with some critical praise and one the network seems to love. But it doesn't look like it can stand on its own.
Better off Ted
I was pretty much torn down the middle of sticking this in the "Not Sure Yet" column. It probably would've been the fair thing to do. Bill has been calling for its death, but I'm starting to wonder if it's the next According to Jim. Plus, it has received a little critical praise, and it fared much better than Samantha Who? last week, pulling a 1.7 rating with adults 18-49, to finish 59th among all broadcast shows for the week. In fairness, it should probably be in the "Not Sure Yet" column, but nobody ever said life is fair. But despite my categorization, I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see ABC play fast and loose and bring it back. Ah, screw it, I've talked myself into putting in the "Not Sure Yet" column.
Ok, now on to the list of shows we think ABC will cancel:
In the Motherhood
It did even worse than Sam Who last week, with a 1.3 adults 18-49 rating and 69th among all broadcast shows in the 18-49 demographic for the week. That's not really much different than Samantha Who's numbers, but ABC doesn't have any history with the shows, it hasn't gotten any critical praise, and, ABC already cut its order for the show in half. Even though it too is a sitcom, it won't be back.
Scrubs
It appears that the move from NBC to ABC (not surprising after NBC canceled it that ABC would pick it up since its produced by ABC Studios) it looks like ABC just wanted to pad its syndication revenues with some extra shows. But this looks to be the final season. The show's creator was quoted in a speech saying this was the last season. Then he backtracked after the network gave him the "please don't say crap like that!" speech. If not for him saying it's the last season, I'd probably have this in the Not Sure Yet column.
Cupid
Cupid is toast. It ranked 61st last week with adults 18-49. Yes, that's better than Samantha Who?, but unfortunately for Cupid fans, networks don't play so fast and loose with more expensive one hour scripted dramas where a 1.6 rating with adults 18-49 means...no renewal.
Over the weekend a friend of mine told me she like this show, and knowing about this blog (but not actually READING it) asked me what I thought would happen. I winced. She noticed, and her response was "Noooo!". I suspect there are many who share that sentiment. But, I'm wincing even more now. Last week Castle was 41st overall with a 2.3 rating. If it were on NBC, maybe. But a.) it's not on NBC and b.) it keeps going down. In preliminary numbers for last night it had a 2.0 rating with adults 18-49. The trend isn't it's friend and I don't think ABC would consider bringing it back if it can't consistently pull 2.5 ratings. But at a 2.0, there's no way the network brings it back.
Update: Monday's final numbers are in and Castle slipped to a 1.9 with 18-49s
The Unusuals
While one week of data isn't much to go on, The Unusuals premiered with a 2.1 adults 18-49 rating. A lot of recent history suggests shows go down from their premieres, not up. I'm not expecting The Unusuals to buck that trend. But, we'll see.
Where’s The Unusuals?
I knew I forgot something! It’s there now.
Bummer, I didn’t know Castle was doing so badly. I hope it recovers, although I know that’s unlikely.
I’m shocked that you think BoT even has a chance.
David, but you’re not shocked I think it with Samantha Who? and Surviving Suburbia? How would BoT do if it followed DWTS? It’s already doing better than ATJ and Scrubs regardless, and at this point nothing a network (at least in the cases of ABC and FOX) would do with regard to a sitcom would surprise me much.
Far be it from me to criticize the master, but it’s pretty silly to put The Unusuals in the definitely not coming back column after one week. Sure it will *probably* end up in that column, but using one data point to conclusively say that is ludicrous. The Unusuals is inconclusive right now.
Wow, from a certain point of view ABC is in trouble. They might not have any freshman shows coming back, and only one sophmore show might see a third season. All of their hits are 5 years+
I suspect Surviving Suburbia is going to be Samantha Who? version 2.0 (only without the love of the critics). Basically it’ll do ok with a Dancing lead-in but the second ABC move it away from that things will likely fall apart. Whether after that it can then become According To Jim version 2.0 remains to be seen.
As far as the rest of the ABC line up goes, they’re pretty much screwed. Part of me would like to see Castle back because I think its getting better with every episode but after this weeks numbers I’m giving up the ghost on that. And that means ABC’s hopes rest on The Unusuals… oh dear?
Chief, I’m sure I’ll be right, sure enough to bet you $5,000. That doesn’t mean I will be right mind you, but I’m equally sure you don’t think it’s so ludicrous that you would bet $5,000 I will be wrong. That, I am 100% sure of. The Unusuals not being renewed I’m only 99% sure of.
I think you have a problem with two things:
1. to classify it that way with only one data point
2. the notion that these things can even be predicted based one one data point.
I don’t have any problem with either of those, and since it will be right, I don’t think it’s a ludicrous prediction at all. Again, if that offends your sensibilities, it’s for reasons other than that you think The Unusuals actually has any chance.
I’m sorry but Castle is definitely gone with a 1.9 and Better Off Ted is not sure yet with a 1.7? Either they should both be in the Not Sure Yet column or both in the Definitely Gone column.
i really do think ABC will bring back castle and how do you know the Unusuals wont last? there has been only 1 episode!
Michael, you don’t take into account that ABC looks at 30 minute sitcoms differently than hour long dramas. I am taking that into account. Heavily.
Chris, my crystal ball knows!
I think Surviving Surbubia has a shot of coming back but I’m not sure if ABC would cancel all their midseason shows, they always bring back one or two for the fall.
Better Off Ted’s Andrea Anders just got cast in a CBS comedy pilot… Kinda proves that BoT won’t be renewed
Eh, it’s just the principle of the thing Robert!
I don’t think it will be back either, but unless the demo is, I don’t know, under 1 I don’t see how it can be included in the definitely not back list based on one episode’s numbers.
Chief, my line right now is that scripted shows (edit: scripted one hour dramas) that premiere with less than a 2.3 can be called immediately. It takes longer with shows like Castle that start out well above a 2.3, or even Life on Mars. But it didn’t take that long with The Unusuals.
Chmarin, that proves nothing other than Andrea is a smart lady who isn’t leaving her fate up to chance. It’s pretty well documented that sort of thing has happened before and not meant that a show wasn’t renewed.
Don’t get me wrong. I don’t think Ted will be renewed or should be renewed. But I don’t think Samantha Who should be either based on numbers.
ABC is looking to be in serious Doodoo. I think the unusuals should have been in the “not certain yet” category.
I didn’t expect “Better off Ted” to have any hope, but looking at recent numbers it does make sense. Still, I’d say it’s unlikely.
I think “Surviving Suburbia” will survive, and Samantha Who? will be forgotten.
The Unusuals has only just premiered and yes it will go down but what about the fact ABC has to remember that no one watches a show after LOST. I do think it should be in the maybe pile.