This week, while Bill is away there is no formal index, but I have been doing summary recaps of what is going on with scripted shows at the various networks. Chuck is still in doubt on NBC, but while many have some doubts about what will happen with ABC's Cupid and Castle, I don't.
Today, let's look at the scripted show situation at FOX. First, here's a list of FOX shows that have already been renewed or cancelled:
| Network | Already Canceled | Already Renewed |
| FOX | Do Not Disturb | Til Death |
| FOX | Prison Break (ending) | The Simpsons |
| FOX | King of the Hill (ending)* | 24 |
| FOX | Family Guy | |
| FOX | House |
*While FOX has announced its plans to end King of the Hill's run, if memory serves the final episodes will actually air in the fall of 2009. A couple of other notes on this table:
While I don't recall seeing a formal announcement about Family Guy's renewal, FOX did do a nine figure deal with Family Guy creator Seth McFarlane through 2012. Family Guy is a demo beast, especially with adults 18-34 and I'm counting it as already being renewed.
Similarly, I haven't seen a formal announcement for House, but it's FOX's highest rated scripted show, there's no way it's not coming back. It's an NBC Universal produced show and NBC would pick it up in 2 seconds if FOX didn't. And I think you can look at Hugh Laurie signing a deal that makes him about $9 million a year (or $400,000) an episode through the 2011-2012 season to mean House has already been renewed for the next two upcoming seasons.
OK, now onto the shows with less formal statuses:
| Network | Won't be renewed | Will be renewed | Not Sure Yet |
| FOX | Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles | American Dad | Sit Down, Shut Up |
| FOX | Dollhouse | Fringe | |
| FOX | Bones | ||
| FOX | Lie To Me | ||
Please note, these are only predictions, and not based on any formal announcements. But, they aren't predictions based on show quality or my mood, or pulled completely out of the air. They are based on numbers and other available data. But as you can see there is much less uncertainty (at least for me) with FOX's shows when compared to NBC's and ABC's.
Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles
You think it's about web traffic to say for more than six months that Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles wouldn't be back next year? No. It's not about traffic. It's about its ratings numbers. Crap like this is about getting traffic. Oh yeah, huge, huge scoop there. Anyway...
You can think whatever you want when it comes to shows quality numbers, but when it comes to ratings numbers you should know that no matter what else you may think, if it's a one hour scripted drama and the ratings numbers are really, really low relative to the network's averages - the show isn't coming back.
I'm not talking about shows with merely mediocre numbers when compared to networks averages. I'm talking about shows that are really, really low compared to network averages. The upcoming Terminator movie won't matter. That it was on Friday night won't matter. That it was pulling anemic 1.3 adult 18-49 ratings matters. It won't be back.
Dollhouse
I really enjoyed Friday night's episode, but Dollhouse won't be coming back either. While I'm not quite as certain about that as I am with TSCC, it's merely a matter of degree. Yes, a 1.4 adults 18-49 rating is better than a 1.3. Sadly, neither rating is any good.
You'll note that while with ABC and NBC there were columns for "Not Sure Yet", in order to have such a column for FOX, I had to add The Cleveland Show Sit Down, Shut Up, which hasn't even aired yet! I suppose American Dad could've been added to that column simply because I am not very familiar with what's going on with it. But its numbers are strong enough that based on the numbers, it seems very likely to be renewed.
Some of the commenters in the Tuesday night overnight post said Yahoo was running a story on shows that could be in trouble for renewal and listed Fringe. I didn't see the story, and on a quick look couldn't find it, but there is NO WAY Fringe doesn't come back. Talk all you want about how Fringe's numbers wouldn't be as good if not for the American Idol lead-in, but when I look at the numbers for the second half hour of Fringe, they are damn decent. Does Fringe benefit from Idol? There's no doubt it does, but so what? There's also no doubt it will be back next year.
Though for FOX, Bones is merely a slightly better-than-average performer with 18-49s, FOX has moved the show around a lot, and is trying to use it to build out a decent Thursday night. Given its performance, it is very likely to return. Is it as certain to be renewed as TSCC is to be canceled? No. But very few things in life are that certain.
Lie To Me did great with an American Idol lead-in, and it has done somewhere between OK to very good without it. Because it had its lowest numbers last Wednesday at 8pm, some fans may be worried. I probably wouldn't have it in the "Not Sure Yet" column even factoring that in, but when I factor in that FOX has already announced plans to air repeats of Lie To Me over the summer, I'm pretty sure it will be back. Could Lie To Me completely tank in its remaining airings and change FOX's viewpoint? Sure, but that doesn't seem likely to happen.
yeah for Lie to Me and Fringe exacllent shows
TSCC was performing much better on Monday nights but FOX doomed it to Friday night’s graveyard slot. Since then the ratings are on a spiral freefal.
Any chance the show will be picked up by another network? Rumour has it that SciFi or SyFy might be a candidate…
The only thing I would say londongirl, is that while it faired well on Mondays (and seems like a more natural fit with 24), it faired well mostly during a time when nothing else new was on because of the writer’s strike. Don’t get me wrong I am a fan, but I wonder if last year’s ratings were a legitimate baseline for comparsion is all…
London Girl: did TSCC perform better on Mondays at 8pm? Yes. Did it perform well enough to be renewed by FOX on Mondays at 8pm? No.
It performed well enough to be moved to Fridays.
American Dad is also a Seth MacFarlane show and I would imagine if Fox has already inked a deal with him for Family Guy through 2012, something would’ve been included for American Dad to keep him happy.
This list is dead on. Nice job Rob. But on the not sure yet, did you mean to put Sit Down, Shut Up? That series will premiere on April 19, while The Cleveland Show won’t debut until the fall. Freshman Terminator and Dollhouse are done, while freshman Lie to Me and Fringe have done well enough to come back next year. Prison Break and King of the Hill are ending while House and Bones are definites to return. The animated comedies, The Simpsons, Family Guy, and American Dad have been renewed for a couple of production seasons for a while now. 24 has also gotten an eight season way back in May 2007. I think the FOX shows have the most certainty out of all the networks on whether or not their gonna be cancelled.
Robert any chance TSCC might get picked up by another network?
Heres what I think sundays will look like in the fall.
7:00 King of the Hill*
7:30 Sit Down, Shut Up**
8:00 The Simpsons
8:30 American Dad
9:00 Family Guy
9:30 The Cleveland Show
*King of the Hill will only return for the fall to burn off remaining episodes.
**If Sit Down, Shut Up gets renewed, it could possibly air at 7:30, pending Football overrun for both shows.
I also think Bones is as certain to be renewed as Terminator is to be axed.
What I don’t understand is why Fox would move an under performing show from Monday night to Friday night rather than cancel it when they had the chance.
Because Warner gave them a great deal because they thought the show would help promote T4.
Also FOX probably thought, rather then just getting rid of Terminator, why not just burn off the episodes they already ordered on a night(Friday) that kills shows, alongside another series(Dollhouse) that they hope to die. FOX had confidence back in October that the show would do better, so they ordered a full 22 episode season. But it didn’t and then they thought, well we have 9 more Terminator episodes and 13 Dollhouse episodes. Why not just pull Fifth Grader and Lyrics from friday, hold it until summer, and just use friday to burn off both dramas. And it worked out well, because both shows were Sci-fi, and FOX probably didn’t like how the Dollhouse pilot turned out so Friday night from February 13-May 15 was just a burn off period, while FOX heavily focused on Sunday-Thursday.
And by keeping Terminator FOX probably held interest in the series long enough for the movie in May.
Dan, I did mean Sit Down, Shut Up, but since it hasn’t aired yet either, it probably doesn’t matter. And I know you meant sophomore season for TSCC, but that doesn’t matter either.
London Girl, my guess is that TSCC won’t wind up on another network (except with syndicated reruns), and that the chance of that happening are very low, but much higher than the chances of coming back on FOX!
Then why didn’t WB promote T4 on TSCC until the finale. Most TSCC fans are well aware of T4 in any case and since it would have been an absolute miracle for TSCC to pull off the ratings it needed to be renewed, especially as a lead in on a Friday night, if WB did give a large discount to Fox, they’re not very bright. I also doubt that the cancellation of TSCC in mid-April will benefit T4 at the box office in mid-May. (I know it’s not officially canceled, but word of its imminent demise has been leaked by Fox, which probably doesn’t please WB much).
Didn’t FOX already order some BONES episodes for next season?
Yes, FOX has already ordered 6 episodes of BONES for next season.
So isn’t that a pretty good sign that it was renewed?
Just saying, BONES should be on the renewed list.
Yes, FOX has ordered 6 episodes for Bones for season 5. Although I agree that Fringe and Lie to Me will return, I am interested to see their numbers when they do not have House or American Idol as lead ins. Truly a gift from the network to have a lead in of 20 million plus viewers.
Londongirl: As I mentioned in the thread on Fringe to another person who asked about TSCC, the problem with TSCC is whether Warner Brothers, despite its investment in the Terminator franchise vis-a-vis movies, wants to spend $20 million or more for 13 episodes of TSCC (let alone 22) just to keep the Terminator franchise name in the public eye between movies?
Because that’s all TSCC does for Warner Brothers if it’s not making money for the studio by itself – and it’s not.
So I can’t see WB doing that.
Kulfarr: I don’t think WB sees TSCC as a venue for advertising the movies – as you say, anybody watching Terminator pretty much has to KNOW what the Terminator movie is anyway. I think it saw TSCC as a way to keep the franchise NAME in the public eye before and between movies. But as I say, they can’t do that if the show is losing money.
I also think the cancellation of the show won’t have any effect on T-4 except for a few fans who think somehow boycotting the movie will matter to the show OR the movie. Remember, Fox may not announce a cancellation at all – just not feature TSCC on the upfronts a mere three days before T-4 debuts – which means nobody except TSCC fans will even notice.
As for Fringe, once again, like Robert says, Fringe is surviving on its own merits, not just because of an Idol lead-in. Sure, it probably would do worse if it didn’t have Idol as a lead-in, but I’m sure it would survive anyway. People who criticize Fringe as benefiting from Idol apparently don’t have nerve enough to criticize the show outright.
Lie to Me and Fringe are sure to return, I’m not sure if Sit Down, Shut Up will do well for FOX though it’s good to see a animated sitcom that isn’t about a family. If SDSU does fil, FOX still has The Cleveland Show which I think was going to replace King of the Hill or American Dad. Doesn’t KOTH still have episodes in the can.
FOX still needs to sort out their live action comedies and perhaps sort out the scheduling for the animated shows as there were too many gaps between new episodes.