More DVR analysis than you want: Why DVR won't save Dollhouse and TSCC

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1. CraigUK

   Posted April 17, 2009 at 12:57 AM

   Robert

   Can I make a suggestion for what could be a quick and dirty graph?

   Since the explosion in new channels over the last 20 years there’s been a fragmentation in the market where some specialist channels now probably don’t even register as having viewers at all?

   I’d be really interested to see a graph that showed say….

   Absolute number of Total Viewers (The Population of the US is still growing)
   Number of Total Viewers watching TV per day
   % of people watching the network shows out of total viewers
   % of People watching cable shows out of total viewers

   Given that Network shows never reach the numbers they used to that there are some people who perhaps never watch Network TV (perhaps only ever watching News or Sports channels amongst others) also I wonder if people are not watching as much TV?

   The numbers above really only reinforce what you’ve already said, I wonder can you run a book on TV show renewals? Now that would be interesting!!

2. Robert Seidman

   Posted April 17, 2009 at 1:07 AM

   Craig, unfortunately we don’t see that data regularly enough to slice it that way. In fact, so far as I know we only see it once a year, and as a composite for the total season during prime time. You can see some of that data here:

   http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/09/19/broadcast-prime-time-for-2008-9-look-out-below/5182

   on a nightly basis we do usually see the percentage of homes or specific demos that were watching, but it’s not sliced by channel or broadcast vs. cable. so we can’t cite any precise figures on what portion was broadcast versus cable. we can do some estimates of what portion was on ABC, CBS, CW, FOX and NBC based on share, but the inverse of that doesn’t really equal cable’s share — though most of the difference would definitely be cable.

   I can’t speak for the last three months or so, but prior to that, people were spending as much time with TV as ever. Most of the broadcast erosion has been due to cable viewing growth.

3. Richard Steven Hack

   Posted April 17, 2009 at 1:10 AM

   Christ, TSCC and Dollhouse are basket cases. So much for the DVR argument for those shows.

   I would have liked to see Fringe, but I think it was on hiatus that week.

4. Robert Seidman

   Posted April 17, 2009 at 1:16 AM

   yeah, Fringe was on hiatus until April 7. It won’t be in next week’s DVR data (3/30-4/5) either.

5. Mike

   Posted April 17, 2009 at 1:31 AM

   I’m guessing that was the week Heroes was repeat, it should of shown up somewhere otherwise.

   Terrific charts and data. Very informative. Kudos.

6. Robert Seidman

   Posted April 17, 2009 at 1:42 AM

   Mike, Heroes wasn’t a repeat that week, but none of the ways I sliced it put it in the top 20. Its live+7 viewing was 8.165 million (37th) and its live+7 adults 18-49 rating was 3.8 (22nd)

7. hagi

   Posted April 17, 2009 at 1:46 AM

   Question: with this dvr data included, is TSSC second in its timeslot in live+7 demo, beating wifeswap and Howdie, after GW (or NCAA) ?

   i think in live+7 demo TSSC performs better than previous Fox shows airing in Friday 8 pm time slot, which should make Fox happy. You have to compare the shows in the same timeslot, right? I remember, one of the Fox people said advertisers like tssc and dh live+7 numbers on fridays…

8. Robert Seidman

   Posted April 17, 2009 at 1:51 AM

   Hagi, Wife Swap beat it by a wide margin in total viewers and by .1 adults 18-49 rating poinst (1.84 vs. 1.74), even with live plus seven factored in. They could’ve aired game shows for a lot less money and achieved similar results. You somewhat misquoted the Fox executive, whose primary job at the end of the day is AD SALES, but I won’t get into that.

9. hagi

   Posted April 17, 2009 at 2:03 AM

   yes for that week WS’s live numbers(1.7) were good so live+7 is(1.7->1.84) but for remaining two weeks TSSC should get better numbers, if this trend continues. Fox can air game shows with having cheap costs… But if Friday night lights is renewed (whose live7 demo numbers worse than tSSc) with support from direct tv, i ll not be surprised if TSSC is renewed with some WB support

10. S

    Posted April 17, 2009 at 3:57 AM

    What were Chuck DVR and Live+7 overall numbers?

11. Charles

    Posted April 17, 2009 at 4:06 AM

    oh you and your hopeful attitude! 8D

12. elliott

    Posted April 17, 2009 at 4:23 AM

    if AI got 25 mil n ep would day be it’s season average or if it got 5millon dvr viewers a show so 30million viewers , would that be it’s average . if that makes sense

13. nyccine

    Posted April 17, 2009 at 4:29 AM

    hagi, T:SCC already had WB support. No, we don’t know the specifics, like we do with the FNL/DirecTV deal, but we know that WB *is* giving Fox a lot of considerations. Barring projections for massive DVD sales or other outside revenues that are really impressive (I know T:SCC was part of a package deal WB sold to MBC for some Persian Gulf airings recently, no idea what sort of money was involved), then there’s no real reason for WB to do even more.

14. Miranda

    Posted April 17, 2009 at 5:00 AM

    Question. the overnight data is live+SD yes?

    so why the shift in total viewers from 3.56 to 3.87m?

15. Miranda

    Posted April 17, 2009 at 5:17 AM

    whoops. never mind. mixing up episodes

16. Julia

    Posted April 17, 2009 at 5:20 AM

    Miranda, 3.87 was the result in the finals, which is usually slightly different from the number reported in the overnights.

    Robert, thanks for this. I’ve been saying for weeks that if DVR numbers ever started to count, the relative number required for success would go up, so it wouldn’t help most shows that are in trouble. Very interesting to see which shows change position. I bet The Mentalist is mostly due to the fact that it was at 10pm that week, and it usually doesn’t jump that much. But I think the most interesting fact is that Family Guy actually dropped four spots.

17. anna

    Posted April 17, 2009 at 5:32 AM

    thank you for supernatural and dollhouse!! how much supernatural gain in viewers by DVR?

18. Miranda

    Posted April 17, 2009 at 5:48 AM

    Still, DH had the greatest jump in rank? by a fair bit? So how is that bad towards DVR numbers not mattering?

19. Julia

    Posted April 17, 2009 at 5:55 AM

    Miranda, it doesn’t matter because Dollhouse’s rank is still pretty bad. It’s still not even beating a reality show it airs against.

20. Holly

    Posted April 17, 2009 at 6:02 AM

    Miranda, I’m guessing the shows it jumped over for those 10 spots were Saturday reruns and CW shows, and beating those is still not a great accomplishment. Imagine that press release “With DVR numbers figured in, we were finally able to out perform out of slot reruns of NCIS”