After being gone last week, there’s a lot to catch up on, and a change in the numbers in the tables. Instead of using the 18-49 viewership for the calculations, I’m going to instead use the 18-49 rating, which simply is the percentage of the US 18-49 TV adults population. (There are an estimated 132 million US adults 18-49 in TV households, so a 1.0 rating is equal to 1.32 million adults 18-49). Since we only get 18-49 demo ratings for each show on an overnight basis, that makes the values in the Renew/Cancel Index easier to compare with the overnight demo ratings results.
Newcomer Harper's Island was advertised as a 13 episode limited run series that could return in another incarnation if the results were good. They aren't. It's going to be canceled. After its 13 episode run, it's done.
CBS has few shows doing terribly. Still, they will cancel some shows just to give themselves fresh spots in the schedule next season. That leaves a big basket of shows in danger (The New Adventures of Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, The Unit, Cold Case, Without A Trace, Worst Week).
The Friday shows (Flashpoint, Ghost Whisperer, Numb3rs) all have low Indexes, but lower expectations (or costs) as well, they look safe.
Here's some past quotes to think about; CBS Chief Les Moonves says “CBS Only Has Room For 3 or 4 New Shows Next Season”, and Entertainment President Nina Tassler says about the Wednesday comedy block “We’ve improved the time period, so it’s something we’d like to stick with.” as well as CBS doing a bit of public negotiating to knock down the prices on Cold Case and Without A Trace.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| FLASHPOINT | CBS | 1.9 | 2.9 | 0.66 | |
| THE EX LIST | CBS | 1.9 | 2.9 | 0.66 | canceled |
| OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2.0 | 2.9 | 0.69 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 2.2 | 2.9 | 0.76 | |
| NUMB3RS | CBS | 2.2 | 2.9 | 0.76 | |
| UNIT, THE | CBS | 2.3 | 2.9 | 0.79 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER | CBS | 2.4 | 2.9 | 0.83 | |
| HARPER'S ISLAND | CBS | 2.4 | 2.9 | 0.83 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 2.6 | 2.9 | 0.90 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 2.7 | 2.9 | 0.93 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 2.8 | 2.9 | 0.97 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.00 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.10 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.17 | |
| Big Bang Theory | CBS | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.21 | |
| Mentalist | CBS | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.21 | |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.21 | |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.28 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.28 | |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.31 | |
| CSI | CBS | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.62 | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.62 |
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Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
The New Adventures of Old Christine: CBS has tried to create a second "comedy block" this season on Wednesday by moving Christine from Monday and slotting freshman Gary Unmarried. Both have been among CBS's worst scripted performers, but will Christine be given the benefit of the doubt?
Worst Week got the best slot in CBS's lineup for a new comedy, but has performed just below average for the net. Reports are that CBS expected much more in that prime timeslot and that Worst Week will not be coming back next season.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Harper’s Island still is going to have all episodes show though, right?
At least Harper’s Island fans will get all over their questions answered by the finale!
i dont know why everything is doing so bad this season
God only knows what’s going on in that hag Nina Tassler’s head.
I’m sure she has some crap program all ready for Cold Case’s timeslot, while she worships Les Moonves, hoping her beloved Without a Trace lasts another season.
I’m so sick of her bull and her constant hate for Cold Case, and it sucks she gets her devilish ways again, after her plot to kill Moonlight worked, but her beloved Ex-List crashed and burned.
She needs to DIAF because it’s her fault Cold Case is dying.
Ummm…OK then…
I see CSI NY dropping some numbers. Careful with the CSIs, they won’t last forever.
Could it drop enough for cancellation next year? Maybe (though without Leno instead of L&O as competition, it could actually do a bit better). Does that matter at all for this year? No. CSI: NY is not going to drop enough in the next several episodes to put it in any danger of not coming back next year.
No. It will take CBS another year to figure out that their CSI’s are not going to be what they used to be.
not next year, this year CSI has dropped like a rock, CSI:Miami is not the same and CSI:NY cannot crack the 3.0 in the demo.
What show is what it used to be? CSI has been on top for 8 years, which is longer than any hour-long scripted show on ABC or FOX. While I’m sure CBS is very aware of the falling ratings, all 3 CSIs are still consistently in the top 25 shows in both viewers and the demo. CBS definitely has bigger problems than those three shows.
Is it my imagination or did I read somewhere that TU producers were asked to outline a fifth season. CBS might be smart to order 16 epi of WAT, CC and The Unit. (I still hope that NBC drops Medium, which CBS/Paramount produce and CBS picks it up for Friday after GW.) The only reason I can TM moving to Thursday 10/9 after CSI is that they are prepping it to take over the slot in a couple of years — though I think original CSI still has life to it. Demo loss is a concern over last few epis. They need some young, hip criminalists to overcome loss of JF and GD.
DenverDean, I read that too…(perhaps from Mitovich at TVGuide? I can’t remember). I’m not sure that will mean much though.
To Kellie:
I agree, I only hope they don’t regret losing viewers
what CSI needs is another storyline like the miniature killer that keeps draggin all season.. great episodes.
FLASHPOINT btw isn’t coming back (at least not right away). The .66 is too low even for a cheap show.
DenverDean, I think CBS might be moving The Mentalist to Thursday nights is because of the NCIS spinoff… Maybe they’ll want it after the original show on Tuesday night this fall? Plus, CBS needs a stable Thursday lineup (Eleventh hour, Harper’s Island aren’t doing that well)…
Also, ABC is apparently still interested in Old Christine:
http://ausiellofiles.ew.com/2009/04/exclusive-abc-h.html
Chmarin, EH not doing that well? I don’t think so.
Eleventh Hour did well enough….just not ’18 million viewers an ep CBS good enough’.
And Lourdes….exactly.
DenverDean, The comment about The Unit being asked for 5th season ideas was from the Hollywood Reporter article on bubble shows.
Lourdes and Kellie, You’re bagging on the CSI shows, yet think 11th Hour was doing well?
We are not ‘bagging’ on anything. I watch CSI. But it is not the same and CBS might not want to continue counting on it as ‘the end all and be all’. Some fans wouldn’t mind a show not prefaced with “CSI”.
And, yes, I do think that EH did well. And it has a fan base to prove it.