Starting this week, instead of using the 18-49 viewership for the calculations, I’m going to instead use the 18-49 rating, which simply is the percentage of the US 18-49 TV adults population. (There are an estimated 132 million US adults 18-49 in TV households, so a 1.0 rating is equal to 1.32 million adults 18-49). Since we only get 18-49 demo ratings for each show on an overnight basis, that makes the values in the Renew/Cancel Index easier to compare with the overnight demo ratings results.
There have been rumors over the past few weeks that Privileged might be returning next season. They sound to me like fantasy caused by a disrupted medication schedule. The show is certain to be canceled.
Even with (at least for the CW) not terrible results under heavy competition, the odds are stacked against Reaper. It's the wrong kind of show for the network, it doesn't have a long history and it just lost its producers. Don't look for it to come back next fall.
The numbers for Everybody Hates Chris and The Game indicate cancellation as well, but there may be some hope for The Game.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY | CW | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.25 | canceled |
| VALENTINE | CW | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.38 | canceled |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS | CW | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.75 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.88 | |
| THE GAME | CW | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.88 | |
| REAPER | CW | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.13 | |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.38 | returning |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.38 | returning |
| 90210 | CW | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.38 | returning |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.50 | returning |
| Smallville | CW | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.75 | returning |
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Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
“They sound to me like fantasy caused by a disrupted medication schedule.”
haha, this is one of my favorite ways that you’ve said that Privileged isn’t coming back.
I’d heard rumors Privileged is actually being considered for Friday nights.
You guys are really bi-polar with your thoughts on Reaper. You do know that, right? I don’t mean to be rude, but when it first debuted you obliterated the show. A couple of weeks later, while the overall viewers dropped, the demos stayed consistent, you said things were looking up. Now we’re back to the “dont look for it to return. Ever.” angle.
Well the numbers look to me like only 2 shows should be renewed. That’s just me though. I think the CW needs a total 100% make over.
I was considering getting into Reaper. Then I came here and I decided against getting invested in a sure to be cancelled show. I’ve already got enough of those with Chuck, though it’s not sure to be cancelled it probably will be.
There, I said Chuck. Let the Chuck to the CW stuff begin!
(Yes, I did that just to see if I could spark the Chuck conversation in a post where logic dictates there should be no Chuck talk.
)
funny that 90210 and gossip girl get all the promotion yet no watches them, while smallville has to carry the network
Reaper is really a tough one… its not a fit with the network, but a 1.13 index score would normally scream renew bearing in mind last years renew index score. Such a shame really… and it looks like Bret Harrison has a 2 season curse (as The Loop only lasted for 2 short seasons as well). Damn…
Adman, the one thing you have to remember with CW is that its current network average is dragged down by Sundays. One day when I’m really bored I may attempt to figure out the average excluding Sundays, but I think it might put Reaper much closer to cancel.
why cw dont put privileged and a 1hour of the game on fridays???it should be good and i think it would drow at least 2 millions viewvers per week!
Chris Rock said it isn’t going to be a fifth season of “Chris”
All those 4 shows in orange will not come back
Wow, Everyone really does hate Chris! Numbers are bad even for CW – ok, Jericho is the worst thing theyve got pulling a 0.2 demo – but its still bad.
Reaper might survive – only because its on CW.
They need to dump Gossip Girl, 90210, and OTH, only the top 2 shows are having any success, and that is success by CW standards. They need a new direction, and targeting 16 yo girls as your target demo is just not a viable busnisess plan.
Can anyone explain why the overall viewership dropped so much for WB shows after the CW merger? I know smallville and SN used to be on the WB 5-6 mil, now 3-4.5 .
Simple explanation is right here. Reaper and Privileged are gone, as is Everybody Hates Chris as it enters syndication. As the CW doesn’t want to bother with comedies any more the only hope for The Game is to return in the hour long format on fridays and drop the laugh track. Other wise that show is a goner. If I were CW I would try that format out, theres no reason why it shouldnt work.
I have a question. How do you calculate the network’s STD avg?
Counting each of the shows the same, so just (sum of each show’s STD avg)/(# of shows)? Doing the same thing, but giving twice as much weight to, say, a 1-hour show vs. a half-hour show? Taking the total 18-49 of every hour of primetime and dividing that by the number of hours?
Heh. “STD average”. Well, add together the cast totals of Gossip Girl, 90210, and One Tree Hill and divide by 3.
Could a brief explanation of the CW’s ratings relative to the other networks be added to the site FAQ at some point? Are the numbers for the CW so much lower than the other networks because the network is in fewer markets?
Tim M, we don’t have good numbers on relative market penetration for the broadcast networks, but any shortfall in markets by the CW is likely to be very small.
bill dont the constant repeats of cw shows bring down these averages..and tim only the top two shows are having success? supernatural is so amazing with a 1.2 so far ahead of gg 90210 and oth’s 1.1
chris, All the shows that started in the fall (which is all of these above except Reaper), started earlier than the start of the official season, so have had more repeats during the official season than have shows on other networks, but relative to other shows on the CW they’ve been pretty similarly effected. The exception is Reaper, which premiered in the spring and has no repeats in these averages.