4/23 Update: ABC announced the official pick-ups of the following shows for the 2009-10 season: America's Funniest Home Videos, The Bachelor, Brothers & Sisters, Dancing with the Stars, Desperate Housewives, Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, Grey's Anatomy, Lost, Private Practice, Supernanny, Ugly Betty, Wife Swap. Not a surprise in the bunch. I have updated the chart below for Private Practice.
After being gone last week, there's a lot to catch up on, and a change in the numbers in the tables. Instead of using the 18-49 viewership for the calculations, I'm going to instead use the 18-49 rating, which simply is the percentage of the US 18-49 TV adults population. (There are an estimated 132 million US adults 18-49 in TV households, so a 1.0 rating is equal to 1.32 million adults 18-49). Since we only get 18-49 demo ratings for each show on an overnight basis, that makes the values in the Renew/Cancel Index easier to compare with the overnight demo ratings results.
In the past two weeks, two new ABC shows have premiered to very different results. Surviving Suburbia opened well and looks likely for renewal. On the other hand, The Unusuals fared poorly and looks likely to be canceled.
Castle continues to drop from its premiere ratings, which were good enough for renewal. Last night it had a 2.2 overnight rating for the 18-49 demo. At that level, it's going to be canceled.
These shows are also likely to be canceled: In the Motherhood, Cupid and Better off Ted.
Private Practice and Samantha Who? look likely for renewal.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN THE MOTHERHOOD | ABC | 1.6 | 2.7 | 0.59 | |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 1.7 | 2.7 | 0.63 | canceled |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P | ABC | 1.7 | 2.7 | 0.63 | final season |
| BETTER OFF TED | ABC | 1.8 | 2.7 | 0.67 | |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 1.8 | 2.7 | 0.67 | canceled |
| THE UNUSUALS | ABC | 1.9 | 2.7 | 0.70 | |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 1.9 | 2.7 | 0.70 | canceled |
| CUPID | ABC | 1.9 | 2.7 | 0.70 | |
| SCRUBS-TU 9PM | ABC | 1.9 | 2.7 | 0.70 | final season |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 2.2 | 2.7 | 0.81 | canceled |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2.2 | 2.7 | 0.81 | final season |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 2.3 | 2.7 | 0.85 | returning |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.89 | |
| CASTLE | ABC | 2.5 | 2.7 | 0.93 | |
| SURVIVING SUBURBIA | ABC | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.04 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.07 | returning |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.26 | returning |
| LOST | ABC | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.59 | returning |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.70 | returning |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.96 | returning |
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Notes:
To remove clutter from the table, I have included only the day/timeslot with the most airings for According to Jim and Scrubs.
According to Jim: After 8 seasons, and recent horrible ratings, but presumably great sydication profits, ABC's According to Jim looks like its prime-time run is coming to an end this season as one of the stars says the stage has been bulldozed. That seems pretty final to me.
Scrubs: Eight seasons is the end for Scrubs as well. Update: Or perhaps not. I am doubting that retraction, I believe he spoke the truth initially and then got his hand slapped and tried to backtrack. I'm keeping it marked as final season.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
It will be interesting to see how Surviving Suburbia does in the index. The finals from last night had it at a 2.4 – it’s consistently dropped about .2 in the demo each week, and didn’t start that high to begin with (a 3.0 I think?).
I just can’t believe how badly everything ABC premiered this season has done. I mean a .59 index for ITM? That’s atrocious.
what is the point of whacing tv anymore
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Question on the new methodology: Are you using the overnights or the finals, because shows following Idol or any big ABC show will have a few minutes of the previous show and they change a lot in the finals.
Good question, Holly!
I appreciate the use of the rating over the viewer number, though.
Holly, the season averages I use are all final ratings that include both new and repeat airings in the regular time slot. I mentioned the overnight ratings because they are easier to compare with these lists now that I started using 18-49 ratings instead of 18-49 viewership numbers.
And to be clear, the methodology is unchanged. If you want to get the 18-49 viewership number (which I used earlier) just multiply the 18-49 rating by 1.32 million.
I get the value of using the rating point over the viewer numbers, but I just don’t know how fair it is to use 4.5 (the overnight) for the last episode Fringe instead of 4.0 (the final). That’s a huge difference. Granted, Fringe isn’t in any danger either way, but a 0.1 or 0.2 difference every week can make a significant difference for a bubble show.
Sorry, I was writing while you posted…Thanks for clearing that up for me.
Wow, in the reality departament ABC is doing good but in the scripted shows.. yikeks.
Why ABC picked up Surviving Suburbia still puzzles me… That show is probably the worst thing I’ve ever seen on TV in the past few years… It’s even worse than According to Jim. Why ABC put it after DWTS is really beyond comprehension… Samantha Who? is a perfect fit with DWTS, and I think ABC should consider putting Brothers & Sisters on Monday Nights at 10… That would be a great lineup (DWTS, Sam Who?, B&S), and it would also allow ABC to launch a new show after Housewives…
Okay I am fuzzy with all these numbers. If Castle’s numbers are better than Ugly Betty which is being renewed then why wouldn’t it be picked up also??? It is also better than Samantha Who? I personally think Castle is one of the most enjoyable new shows out there and it looks like it isn’t doing that bad with over 8. something million viewers a week. I guess I just don’t understand.
Jennifer,
From what is being said it is the 18-49 numbers that are not looking good overall and even though the average is currently 2.5 overall the last two weeks were 2.0 and 2.2 for the 18-49 ratings and the verdict is with those numbers it will be canceled.
For some reason 7-9 million weekly viewers is irrelevant even though that puts it usually in the top five to seven shows viewed on ABC weekly.
Lizard
Jennifer, Ugly Betty draws in the female demos. ABC has reportedly said that those demos are what’s saving Ugly Betty.
Jennifer, while I don’t know Bill and Robert’s exact reasoning behind this, I agree with it. “Castle” has been trending downward, and it is nowhere near the 9 share in 18-49 that a new show seems to need to survive in most time slots these days.
looks like ABC pulled Samantha / Motherhood’s episodes this weeek in favor of a Grey’s repeats
ABC and NBC got impatient Tuesday, yanking already tossed-aside series “Samantha Who,” “In the Motherhood” and “Kings” sooner than expected.
Alphabet net had already shortened the runs of “Motherhood” and “Samantha” by a week, opting to bring “Ugly Betty” back to the Thursday at 8 p.m. slot on April 30.
But “Motherhood” and “Samantha” were still slated to air one last episode this week – until ABC execs decided that they’d be better off with a repeat of “Grey’s Anatomy” leading into an original “Grey’s” at 9 p.m. Having been in repeats for a few weeks, “Grey’s” might have been hurt further by the weak numbers coming from “Motherhood” and “Samantha.”
That means last week’s “Motherhood” and “Samantha” segs wound up being the last of the season for both shows. “Motherhood” isn’t expected to return, but “Samantha” still has a decent shot at returning for a third season.
Seven episodes remain of this year’s “Samantha” order; those could either fold into next year’s order, or run this summer – should the show not make it on the fall sked.
Over at NBC, Peacock has opted to push the remaining seven segs of “Kings” to the summer. The show will now air on Saturdays at 8 p.m. from June 13 to July 25.
In the meantime, NBC will now air repeats of “Law & Order: SVU” at 8 p.m., followed by repeats of “Southland” at 9 p.m., on Saturdays. “Law & Order” repeats will then run at 10 p.m. That setup will last through May 16; “Law & Order: Criminal Intent” repeats will then run at 8 p.m. on May 23 and 30.
The “SVU” – “Southland” pairing is seen as a trial run for next fall; NBC could very well run the two gritty dramas together on Wednesdays.
Sucks a bit that King even lost it’s Saturday timeslot. But instead of pushing it back that far, why can’t they just air the episodes online? I don’t really think many of the viewers of Kings will care about it much in two months.
It’ll be a pity if Castle gets the chop, it’s one of the more intelligent shows on TV at the moment. If I were ABC I’d take a chance on giving Castle another small season of 10, maybe 13 episodes.
I’m really not happy with Better Off Ted’s numbers. This show is really enjoyable and I see it having room to grow (this could be ABC’s The Office, slow to start but picks up steam) the only problem with that thinking is ABC won’t nurture this show the way NBC did with The Office. I know NBC is no role model for any other network, but NBC does know how to do comedy.
The thought that “Better off Ted” won’t do well enough in the numbers to be picked up, but the godawful “Surviving Suburbia” just might makes me weep (again) for the future of this country.
What the hell is wrong with you people!?
I completely agree with you Jason. I guess people want mind-numbing boring TV. God forbid anything be truly funny on TV!
What I want to see is if Surviving Suburbia can manage to pull it half those numbers without the Dancing With the Stars lead in. I’m better it falls harder than Samantha Who