'

April 21: Renewal & Cancellation Prospects For Your Favorite Shows

Categories: '

Written By

April 22nd, 2009

The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you're reading this after April 28, 2009 click here to see the latest list.

I've broken each network's data for scripted shows out into its own separate post to keep the discussions more on topic, find them at the links below.

CLICK THESE LINKS TO SEE EACH NETWORK'S SCRIPTED SHOWS:

ABC: Surviving Suburbia Looks Good For Renewal,The Unusuals Likely Canceled

CBS: Harper’s Island One and Done

CW: Rumors Of Privileged’s Possible Renewal Are Fantasy

Fox: Sit Down, Shut Up; Slow Start, Slim Chance

NBC: Believe It Or Not: Southland And Parks & Recreation Are Keepers ----------------------------------------------------------------

UNSCRIPTED SHOWS FOR ALL NETWORKS

For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. Since we, and you, don't care much about unscripted shows, and the Index isn't all that good in predicting their future, I don't worry about predictions, but here is the data for reference.

Starting this week, instead of using the 18-49 viewership for the calculations, I’m going to instead use the 18-49 rating, which simply is the percentage of the US 18-49 TV adults population. (There are an estimated 132 million US adults 18-49 in TV households, so a 1.0 rating is equal to 1.32 million adults 18-49). Since we only get 18-49 demo ratings for each show on an overnight basis, that makes the values in the Renew/Cancel Index easier to compare with the overnight demo ratings results.


PROGRAM Net  STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD)  Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating Renew/ Cancel index
HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7P FOX 1.0  2.7 0.37
IN HARM'S WAY CW 0.3  0.8 0.38
HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7:30P FOX 1.2  2.7 0.44
GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD 830P CBS 1.3  2.9 0.45
AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS NBC 1.1  2.3 0.48
SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER FOX 1.3  2.7 0.48
GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD CBS 1.4  2.9 0.48
CHOPPING BLOCK NBC 1.2  2.3 0.52
48 Hours Mystery CBS 1.6  2.9 0.55
SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME ABC 1.5  2.7 0.56
WIFE SWAP ABC 1.5  2.7 0.56
DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS FOX 1.5  2.7 0.56
HOWIE DO IT 8P NBC 1.3  2.3 0.57
DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI NBC 1.3  2.3 0.57
HOWIE DO IT 8:30 NBC 1.3  2.3 0.57
OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS ABC 1.6  2.7 0.59
COPS FOX 1.6  2.7 0.59
Dateline SUN-7PM NBC 1.4  2.3 0.61
13 - FEAR IS REAL CW 0.5  0.8 0.63
HOMELAND SECURITY USA ABC 1.7  2.7 0.63
HOLE IN WALL THU-8P FOX 1.7  2.7 0.63
Supernanny ABC 1.7  2.7 0.63
Dateline FRI NBC 1.5  2.3 0.65
MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD CBS 1.9  2.9 0.66
AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK FOX 1.8  2.7 0.67
KITCHEN NIGHTMRS-THU 8P FOX 1.8  2.7 0.67
COPS 2 FOX 1.9  2.7 0.70
20/20-FRI ABC 2.0  2.7 0.74
HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P FOX 2.0  2.7 0.74
Kitchen Nightmares FOX 2.1  2.7 0.78
MOMMA'S BOYS NBC 1.8  2.3 0.78
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P ABC 2.2  2.7 0.81
AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS ABC 2.2  2.7 0.81
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 NBC 1.9  2.3 0.83
PRIMETIME:WHAT WOULD U DO ABC 2.3  2.7 0.85
DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED NBC 2.0  2.3 0.87
STYLISTA CW 0.7  0.8 0.88
SUPERSTARS OF DANCE NBC 2.2  2.3 0.96
SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL ABC 2.7  2.7 1.00
60 Minutes CBS 2.9  2.9 1.00
Amazing Race 14 CBS 3.1  2.9 1.07
FOX NASCAR SPRINT CUP PST FOX 2.9  2.7 1.07
Amazing Race 13 CBS 3.2  2.9 1.10
TRUE BEAUTY ABC 3.0  2.7 1.11
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P ABC 3.4  2.7 1.26
SURVIVOR: TOCANTINS CBS 3.9  2.9 1.34
FOX NASCAR SPRINT CUP FOX 3.7  2.7 1.37
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 NBC 3.2  2.3 1.39
APPRENTICE 8 NBC 3.2  2.3 1.39
DANCING W/STARS RESULTS ABC 3.8  2.7 1.41
HELL'S KITCHEN FOX 3.8  2.7 1.41
Biggest Loser 6 NBC 3.3  2.3 1.43
SURVIVOR: GABON CBS 4.2  2.9 1.45
BACHELOR, THE ABC 4.0  2.7 1.48
Biggest Loser 7 NBC 3.7  2.3 1.61
OT, THE FOX 4.4  2.7 1.63
Dancing with the Stars ABC 4.7  2.7 1.74
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK NBC 4.2  2.3 1.83
AMERICA'S Top Model - 6 CW 1.8  0.8 2.25
AMERICA'S Top Model-5 CW 1.9  0.8 2.38
NBC Sunday Night Football NBC 6.5  2.3 2.83
American Idol-TUESDAY FOX 9.4  2.7 3.48
American Idol-WEDNESDAY FOX 9.4  2.7 3.48

-

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

All ratings are Live+SD.

We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.

 
© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures