After 30 weeks of the 2008-9 season, through April 19, 2009, ABC and NBC continue to be almost dead even in the main age demos we track. Of course, if you consider that ~ 10% of NBC's viewer average numbers are due to the Super Bowl week alone, ABC would otherwise be well ahead of NBC across the board.
How much did Super Bowl week add to NBC's averages you say? How much worse would NBC look if it didn't have the Super Bowl this year? Here's the bump in numbers for each category that NBC got during Super Bowl week.
| SB Week Bump (million) | |
| Viewers | 0.770 |
| 18-49 | 0.370 |
| 18-34 | 0.180 |
| 25-54 | 0.360 |
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Fox continues to chip away at CBS' season lead in adults 25-54, but very slowly. I'd say at this point it's a toss up as to which takes that demo for the full season when it ends in May.
(click chart for full sized image)
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.
FIRST! (just kidding
)
Anybody else find it ironic that, with an entire night dedicated to animated TV shows, Fox skews as old as it does? Obviously, CBS takes the title and has for decades as the geriatric network. But it certainly seems Fox isn’t that far behind. (imagine if they took away the demos from those Sunday night shows)
Patrick, the reality is that broadcast primetime audiences on the major English networks (ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox) are much more alike than they are different (at least compared to the differences in cable networks). Fox skews younger (22% of its audience is 18-34), CBS older (12% of its audience is 18-34), but the differences aren’t nearly as significant as those between cable networks.
I really do wonder if Leno will help NBC’s averages next fall. If Leno can average 8-9 million viewers and a 3.0 in the demo, he certainly will. But what are the odds of that happening? Does anyone know what Leno’s latenight ratings currently are?
JT, Leno averaged an 18-49 demo rating of 1.4 for the Tonight Show last fall. I’d be certain that he does better than that at 10pm, but the question is how much better? Still, the hurdle for doing better than other 10pm NBC alternatives is pretty low.
I am really wondering what NBC’s plans are now. I mean, is Leno there to stay? Or just for a year or two so that NBC can catch their breath and revamp some things? And what if Leno’s ratings REALLY suck (as in below 2.0 or so)…will it still stay on the air?
Evil, I doubt that the current plan is to just have Leno @ 10 for a year or two. Of course, failure may change the plans, but if he does OK (whatever that number is), I think he stays there indefinitely.
I think the “we will get the rest of our prime-time line up in order with less to focus on” is just deflecting PR spin by NBC.
The completely hypothetical and unanswerable question I have is what happens if Leno is successful, and then decides to retire 5-10 years down the line? Does the 10 pm spot remain talk show or does NBC, if they are in any sort of improved position, bring back five hours of real programming? Does Conan get to move up to 10? While I hope Leno is not successful, I almost want him to be just to see what NBC would do in that situation.
Julia, I bet that NBC keeps Leno at 10pm until he stops being a draw, that would leave him as damaged goods for anybody else. One goal met right there, since keeping him away from ABC was a primary reason for putting him there in the first place. As for going back to “regular” programming afterwards, anything is possible, particularly if there is a regime change at NBC
i bet after a few years NBC is gonna start putting a show or two in the 10pm slot and have leno on only 3 times a week
Julia I would think that hypothetical would rest on how Conan is doing in late night and what the television landscape looks like in terms of online growth etc.
I think if Leno is a success and he retires before the show bombs then Conan would get bumped up as long as he’s doing well in the late night slot. I’m more interested in what happens if Leno is a success and Conan decides he doesn’t want to keep playing second fiddle to him. What does NBC offer Conan to stop him going to ABC? Do they offer him anything? And if Conan goes somewhere else do they move Leno back to late night? Would Leno go back to late night? Or would Jimmy Falon get bumped up?
The Leno thing is a hypothetical minefield!
ABC ROCKS than NBC