Dollhouse returns tonight for the first of its last three* episodes of the season. How will it do? Some fans suggested that Prison Break would prove to be a better lead-in for Dollhouse than Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles. It's hard to make a strong case for that based on last week's return of Prison Break, but we'll see.
With only three weeks remaining, the numbers suggest that the Dollhouse will be torn down after only one season. There's a lot of chitter-chatter of renewal hope, but the numbers don't suggest a reason for such hope. Not even factoring in Fridays. Now, there are a lot of people, who say you can't look exclusively at the numbers, and that other things like DVR viewing, online viewing and DVD sales factor in. There's not a lot of data to suggest that the DVR viewing and online viewing actually do matter in the renewal decisions for Dollhouse (or any other show, at this point).
Our experience has been that in terms of show renewal decisions, particularly for one hour scripted dramas, those numbers haven't changed the outcomes any. I do believe that DVD sales are an important component, but when coupled with the TV numbers, those DVD sales would need to be very robust. We've seen the DVR numbers and I've looked at them thoroughly, and even on the basis of DVR increases, Dollhouse doesn't have much of case for renewal. I haven't seen online data directly, but from what I hear while "not nothing", it won't likely play into any renewal decision.
For now, it looks like the only way the show will be renewed is if the TV viewing goes up for the last few episodes or FOX is very confident in brisk DVD sales.
Sadly, neither outcome seems likely to me, and it's too bad because I particularly enjoyed the last episode (two weeks ago). I would need to see the adults 18-49 rating grow to a 1.6 before even starting to get excited and the prior trend doesn't suggest such growth is likely. I don't see Prison Break being any better of a lead-in for the Dollhouse (though likely no worse).
Last time out, Dollhouse had a 1.4 adults 18-49 rating. I'd look for tonight to be in the 1.3-1.4 range. I'm not sure being off the air for the week helped it any, but Joss Whedon has a loyal following so I wouldn't expect it to drop much either. I hope I'm wrong and it goes up, but that doesn't seem a likely outcome.
*As everyone pretty much knows at this point, there is a fourth episode, to make a total of 13 for the season but FOX has elected not to air that as a part of this season's run, and so far hasn't backed down on that.
How will it do?
Better than Chuck…..but that ain’t saying much.
(KIDDING!)
I’m saying it holds steady with a 1.4, which isn’t good news but at least it isn’t a drop, right?
Personally I’m slightly more interested to see how Prison Break does at 8 after last weeks disastrous return. Of course I’m also not in the least bit looking forward to the Friday over night post because no doubt the Terminator fans will crawl out of the woodwork when Prison Break doesn’t do any better than TSCC. Of course if there’s a God Prison Break will do better…
Cool! A new new reason for another Chuck thread! >:)~
I’m going with 1.3. Better than Prison Break last week, but worse than Dollhouse two weeks ago.
Again someone mentioned Chuck! CHUCK is fuc*** stupid series! Let it be canceled! Oh God please!!!! Only ’cause of you, stupid annoying fans. If you like that show than watch it assholes!
I’ll say this now – if Dollhouse drops again this week it has to be completely dead if it isn’t already.
According to a FOX relative of mine, FOX executives are basically a little confused on a few shows.
Terminator word is, is a goner
Dollhouse actually has a chance with an uptick in viewers like a 1.8 would probably let them look into renewal.
Lie To Me – Fine
Bones – FIne
Better than Prison Break
Ha, Dollhouse wishes it had Chuck’s numbers.
Robert, you mentioned that online the show isn’t horrible but its not enough to make a difference. Is there any show which it has made a difference to?
Also: Have you compared the DVR data to the data for torrent downloads? While only a few of them (those released by networks) have ads built in, and none in the U.S., high torrent numbers could indicate an ability to sell the show abroad, and international distribution has been given as part of the reason for the continuation of certain shows such as Heroes.
Dario, don’t freak out ™. It is pretty obvious that anonymous might have said this on purpose to get similar reaction. And it worked.
….and if Prison Break drops some – one executive wants to take it off before it finishes. This probably wont happen,considering most executives understsand Prison Break is in its fourth season…..Fans would be outraged with no closure
FOXplanner the chances of any reasonable person at FOX thinking Dollhouse could tick up to a 1.8 live+SD rating with adults 18-49 seems even more unlikely than Bill recanting his opinion of the renewal prospects for CW’s Privileged (read as less than zero!).
Based on the across the board lower numbers for last night – I think the TV audience has checked out for the summer. I would say that all of the Friday shows will be down again, including Dollhouse.
Dollhouse is the one show where a second season, with all the introductory stuff and a strong finish behind it in S1, would grow immensely. It’s sad how many shows in the past started “working” and became classics only after a couple of years but it’s a cutthroat world out there now.
I honestly hope the last few episodes are as kickass as they promised (if they’re lake the last one, awesome), and people tune in on word of mouth. Or at least it gets good reviews (which I’m already seeing) and FOX at least thinks about it before picking up the axe. Hell, you have to think about stuff when a raving review recommends people to “watch ep. 2 first, skip to 5, and carry on”. Which episodes were your idea again, FOX?
I´m going with 1.4. It should hold steady.
I´ll miss this show if it doesn´t come back, although not as much as Chuck. That´s the one I´m really rooting for
I am not sure from what i’ll say , but i really hope that last friday was a miss for prison break since it was just back from a bih hatius , but i think the fans will be back tonight (or i hope though), any way if prison break fans + dollhouse fans
watch dollhouse we can get 1.8 , any way , i hope dollhouse get renewal it’s amazing
i also want to see CHUCK next year
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 1.2, did you see Thursday night’s ratings? They were kind of bad…and tonight is Friday…people are seeming to care less about tv shows these days(besides Chuck of course!) I personally haven’t watched Dollhouse live, I watch it online at a later date, I think its a good show, I hope it can survive at least 1 more season. I love eliza dushku, loved her more as Faith in Buffy than as Echo, but some Eliza is better than none!
An amazing 1.2 18-49
.. it will crush the competition.
Robert, do you think FOX will look at Dollhouse’s performance as it relates to Prison Break? For example, if Dollhouse holds or edges up .1 in the demo, yet Prison Break maintains its dismal numbers from last week, will FOX see the show as having a stable audience that it can then work on for next season?
…some Eliza is better than none
Well, yeah!
Come for Eliza. Stay for the rest 
It´s a shame how many good shows are having a rough time this year: Dollhouse, Chuck, Life…