I do wonder about CSI, the ratings have dropped to a point where the spin-offs are doing similar numbers with CSI:Miami skewing younger. I think moving it to 10pm would be ideal and have The Mentalist at 9pm.

CBS do have a few holes to fill with Sundays being the most obvious example but I think putting NCIS: OSP at 9pm and maybe Washington Field/Miami Trauma at 10pm would rebuild the night but at the expense of Cold Case and The Unit.

Here’s how I would grade them:

FOX: A-
CBS: A+
ABC: C
NBC: F
CW: F

The Mentalist on CBS might do similar to CSI, I believe that wasn’t a top performer in its first season either, but other than that I just don’t see anything that looks like its going to explode in its 2nd or 3rd season and become the next big hit for any of the networks (compared to their current hits anyway). So hopefully at least one of the networks will have a good fall 2009 and have a true hit in the demos.

I seriously wonder how The Mentalist would perform in the Tuesday at 10 p.m. “slot-o-death” that plagued CBS until WAT was moved there. It’s the first series to break 10 million viewers in that slot in years, but WAT is might be costly due to its veteran status. WAT has on-the-bubble numbers in the R/C index. If CBS cancels WAT, will they try The Mentalist in that time slot? It just might work, particularly now that Leno is factored into the picture.

2006: Only Heroes, Brothers & Sisters, Friday Night Lights & Ugly Betty survive to today, and even that is deceptive: FNL only survives because of DirecTV, Heroes only survives because of network pride, UB survives only because of syndication/network disarray. Only Brothers & Sisters legitimately survives, and that is coasting on a post-DH Sunday slot.

2005: Ghost Whisperer is Friday, Bones is Thursday lowered expectations (& recall that it was scheduled to die on Fridays before network execs saw how Dollhouse turned out), Supernatural is CW numbers (even if it should be bigger), Medium is low expectations running into Leno. Criminal Minds is the only real hit.

2004: We have to go back this far to find a real year of hits: House, DH, GA, CSI: NY, etc.

So network TV hasn’t had a good year since 2004. That’s no way to build for the future.

Obviously he talked to the same people Nick C did with regard to Dollhouse.

Should we take it that if Dollhouse is renewed, then Fox at least is indeed paying attention to DVR and other measurements, and that if it is not renewed, that the numbers once again are proven definitive?

ABC’s top 3 are all 5 seasons old and they lead their other shows by a sizeable amount. CBS’ top 2 shows are in their 6th and 9th seasons, and the Mentalist their big new hit is 7th at least in the demos for CBS. The CW’s top 2 are 8 and 4 seasons old. FOX’s top 2 are House in season 5 and 24 in season 7 after being off the air for 2 years. Lie to Me is 3rd but they aren’t really there based on current ratings. NBC actually is in a bizarre sense the best with the Office in season 5 and Heroes only in season 3 being #2, but I know Heroes’ average is slipping and may not be #2 right now.

So leaving out Heroes all top shows on all networks are 4 seasons or more old, meaning that all these shows are likely closer to their ends than the beginning meaning their ratings won’t be around much longer, plus ratings likely will drop with each passing season and there is virtually nothing to replace these top shows. Even the biggest reality stories seem to relate to Idol not slipping much, Biggest Loser and Bachelor showing gains, etc. but these are also older shows. So basically nothing is sticking for at least the past 3 seasons. Most shows that are 3 seasons or less are only performing moderately well or already are below average and are on the bubble.

I’m assuming this isn’t the typical trend, I would think that the goal of a network is to try to have 1 or 2 genuine hit shows every year at least relative to each network. This would mean having a show that’s in its first or second season be in the top 3 shows for the network. Right now, that’s not the case for any network (with maybe the exception of FOX with Lie to Me). I would think that would be alarming at this point with audiences shrinking, if no new shows can top or even match these older shows before they end their runs, the overall broadcast audience would likely see even more dramatic declines even worse declines than they’ve been seeing in recent years.

What if the PR department of the CW were used to fight poverty!

Just sayin…

1-3-1 (You forget Private Practice and Sam Who?, whose fate has yet to be decided.) But, yes, he seems to brush off the fact that all the ABC shows that are actually performing are 5 years old. They “are showing some signs of age, but they remain remarkably vibrant, particularly given their serialized nature” but that doesn’t mention the fact that LOST is surely done next season, and Grey’s and Housewives are way down.

I get the feeling that this is a grad school grading system where anything less than a B+ is failing…

In touting CBS being up over 2007-8, I can overlook that he made no direct comparisons to 2006-7, but not even mentioning that CBS being up over 2007-8 (because of the strike) still means it was well behind 2006-7 seems an oversight. Ditto with the tout that “23 CBS shows added viewers, far more than any other network” CBS got crushed during the strike worse than anyone but the CW, you’ve got to mention that in the praise about being up the most this season.

Considering that Fox is going to beat CBS across the board in the main age demos again this season, giving Fox an A- and CBS and A, seems a bit funny.

He’s very lenient with ABC on their new scripted show performance. “Freshman performance” was by all measures almost a complete failure (except, perhaps Surviving Suburbia), yet he almost spins it as a positive! And no mention of “Sophomore performance” where ABC went 0-3. By any reasonable measure ABC is in terrible shape with its scripted show process.

He mentions the Super Bowl boosts for NBC, but then disregards it in all his numerical comparisons, particularly when he compares NBC cutting the gap with Fox. Of course they did! Fox had the Super Bowl last year and NBC had it this year!

I could comment on the CW stuff, but what’s the use?