Commenter Richard Steven Hack posed the following question in the comments:
This comment from the article: “A longer shot at returning: “Dollhouse,” which has posted predictably low ratings on Friday. But Fox executives are holding out a glimmer of hope for the show, noting its loyal core and its strong DVR numbers.”
Obviously he talked to the same people Nick C did with regard to Dollhouse.
Should we take it that if Dollhouse is renewed, then Fox at least is indeed paying attention to DVR and other measurements, and that if it is not renewed, that the numbers once again are proven definitive?
The short answer to this question is: yes, if FOX renews Dollhouse, it is obviously paying attention to something besides the ratings measurements we make our predictions based on. While I wouldn't say that if it's not renewed that the numbers will once again be proven definitive, I would say that if it isn't renewed we will continue to rely heavily on the numbers until we're given a reason not to.
I wanted to address the issue of the DVR viewing though, and it wound up so long I figured I'd just do a separate post.
Time could prove my thinking wrong, and it would definitely be more interesting if it did, but for now, my mind doesn't grapple with "if Dollhouse is renewed" any more effectively than it grappled with "If Lipstick Jungle is renewed..." I mostly see The Talk is just that, talk. TV is a sales business, and positive spin/putting lipstick on the ratings (as opposed to quality) pigs seems the rule, rather than the exception. It's just in their DNA.
When it comes to Dollhouse renewal, with my FOX executive hat on, I think the most important components are (in ranked order):
- Live/same day DVR viewing (I'd say the C3 commercial viewing ratings, but we don't see that data)
- Potential for DVD Sales
- Viewing by high income homes
- DVR Viewing beyond the same day the show aired
- Online viewing
In the case of Dollhouse, there could be some legitimate noodling over potential DVD sales, but I doubt Dollhouse will be given any special renewal consideration as a result of its DVR viewership. Dollhouse doesn't really have spectacular DVR numbers. It has good DVR numbers, and relative to the overall viewing, a very high percentage of DVR viewers. It also ranks fairly well (18th, for the week ending April 5) in terms of 18-49 ratings boost over and above live plus same day DVR ratings we commonly report, once a full week of DVR viewing is factored in.
Dollhouse is no Lost or House -- and I don't think anyone is expecting it to be -- when it comes to Live+7 adults 18-49 rating versus Live+SD rating. For the April 3rd episode of Dollhouse, the full week of DVR viewing boosted its LIVE+SD 18-49 rating from 1.46 to 1.96 (by comparison LOST went from a 4.3 to a 5.25) . Again, on a ratings point increase basis, that would've ranked 18th for the week. Not bad at all. The problem is, even with that boost, when you look at Dollhouse's adults 18-49 ranking for Live+7 viewers, it was 51st. Nothing to get really excited about.
Given the small total audience, the DVR viewing is impressive, but the problem is, it still winds up with a small total audience. From what i gather, the viewing that occurs on the FOX web site and Hulu is pretty good for online viewing (I've now heard ranges as wide as 100,000-250,000 per episode) but probably not good enough to make a difference in renewal.
There is one metric I haven't seen that could play into it, and that's how well Dollhouse does in households with high annual income. I'm guessing that if it were faring particularly well by that metric, we'd already have heard some TV-speak about it. But I haven't seen those numbers, and if they're good, it could play a role. Outside of that, short of very high hopes for DVD sales, I don't see the math that adds up to renewal.
As for the DVR numbers, if more people were watching the show live or even on DVR the same night, it might be different. If the 18-49 rating was being boosted from a 2.0 to a 2.5, or even a 1.6 to a 2.1, the .5 boost might perhaps be enough. But for this past Friday, assuming DVR viewing held steady, we're looking at a boost from a 1.2 to a 1.7 (or a 1.3 to a 1.8 if it went up to a 1.3 in the final numbers). So for now, while it makes for a good vehicle for spin, and looks good on both a % increase and boost to Live+SD rating basis, on an absolute basis it still doesn't look so good. Even for Fridays.
Since spin seems such a critically important component of the TV world, spinning the cancellation (and blaming the ratings) seems much easier than spinning the renewal.
why would they renew dollhouse? The ratings and the show itself suck, if you are gonna renew a low rated show at least do a quality one
I think you should add the following component on your list:
6) The day and timeslot of the show
Question: -1.9 or 2.0 18-49 live+7 numbers might not be so bad for fridays or saturdays?
http://www.economist.com/business/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13528310
An interesting article about DVR usage
“…DVR-owning households earn about $20,000 more than average. Yet those households do not use them nearly as much as one might expect. Families with DVRs seem to spend 15-20% of their viewing time watching pre-recorded shows, and skip only about half of all advertisements. This means only about 5% of television is time-shifted and less than 3% of all advertisements are skipped. Mitigating that loss, people with DVRs watch more television…
Hagi, the problem with that argument is that 1.9-2.0 would be decent for Friday in Live+SD, but when you compare it to everything else in Live+7 numbers, it only looks a tiny bit better than it did with its horrible Live+SD numbers. (This is why I was hoping Robert would keep the DVR charts as showing the top 20 Live+7 shows, rather than anything to do with amount of increase. It’s a far more useful chart to look at than percentage increase.)
The past participle of “prove” is still “proved,” I say.
Actually, imho, a comparison of the live+x numbers of the shows based on timeslot and day will be usefull to discuss their fate.
Boris, Merriam-Webster says you’re wrong, though if it means anything to you, apparently the 19th century grammarians took your stance.
Julia, since Bill does the weekly DVR posts you can try lobbying him. Doing the top twenty Live+7 is easy, but it is extra work to show how the live+7 numbers changed the rankings. Total DVR and % viewing via DVR are both somewhat interesting, but those are the only things I think worthwhile to calculate off the Live numbers. any % increase to ratings/viewers are less confusing/more easily interpreted if they are calculated off of Live+SD since live+SD numbers are everywhere and live numbers are only in the DVR posts. However, if we abandoned percentage increases altogether, there would be a whole lot of shows that you’d never see any data for. The top 20 live+7 wouldn’t look much different than the top 20 live+sd.
Hagi, since Dollhouse was already on Fridays its day of week/time slot were already in my thinking. With a .5 live+7 bump, I still think it needs to be a 1.6 w/Live+SD to be interesting to FOX, even on a Friday. I could be wrong about that. But whether the line for live+sd is 1.7 or 1.5, I’m pretty sure it’s not 1.3. we’ll see.
The top 20 live+7 wouldn’t look much different than the top 20 live+sd.
Which is the point that I think a lot of people need to figure out.
Robert Seidman says:
“Boris, Merriam-Webster says you’re wrong, though if it means anything to you, apparently the 19th century grammarians took your stance.”
MW doesn’t really say that anyone is wrong, aside from those who say that *anything* is wrong. It’s a descriptivist lexicon with a strong interest in suggesting that that’s the end of the story.
Hey, why are your numbers always different from other sites? And is it true that DVR numbers arent released until 3 weeks after the original air date?
What numbers are different?
The rating share numbers. every site had different numbers and averages.
The sad thing is, Julia, they never will. I’m *still* seeing “ZOMG HUEG % DVR INCREASE” reports about T:SCC, completely glossing over the fact that its live+7 is still in the toilet, relative to everything else.
TT, the numbers posted daily on this site are the preliminary overnight numbers. The final numbers that are released later in the day (and posted on other sites) will often change slightly (or greatly depending on the circumstances). Could that be the difference you are referring to? Can you give us some examples of different numbers?
As for DVR numbers, they are released two weeks after the finals for the week are released, which is Tuesdays, so it can be up to three weeks and one day, or as little as two weeks and two days, depending what day the show you are looking for information on aired.
Holly, I’m not sure if this is what you’re asking about, but the week Bill was on vacation, I published very different slices of the DVR viewing implications than Bill normally posts. If you click the DVR navigation link above and check out both posts, you’ll see the differences.
I think Holly was addressing TT.
i have to admit that i lost myself about dollhouse’s renuwal changes, 3-4 weeks ago. but dollhouse will be renewed for the next year. maybe the episode 10 or the premise of episode 11, but this show will be renewed. its the best show on friday, with low rating and bad critics, but it will be renewed. i know it. i fell it. this show is going to rock next year. yes, ONLY ON FOX!
I DON T CARE DVR ( I DONT HAVE IT..), OR HULU. IT WILL BE RENEWED. and you all know it too, there’s a post about the show on this site every day!!
Ah.
@Julia, i’m talking about the ratings i see on zap2it, hitfix, buzzsugar, etc. everyone has different #s. Why doesnt Nielsen release their own numbers besides the top 20 shows of the week.
TT, because Nielsen is a business designed to sell its data, not give it away. Those sites (at least some of them) use Household rating/share which measures the percentage of TV homes in the US that tuned in. We don’t really use that for anything here, but along with total viewers, it is very commonly reported.
edit: I do post the HH Rating/share final numbers in the weekly broadcast top 20, and the weekly top shows by network (see ABC, CBS, etc in the navigation above)