Newcomer Harper's Island has been exiled to Saturday night by CBS. There will be no more 13 episode cycles as there might have been if the ratings were good.
Of the CBS shows on the "bubble" (The New Adventures of Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, The Unit, Cold Case, Without A Trace, Worst Week, Eleventh Hour) it's a bit tricky to try and separate them into more or less likely to be renewed because so much depends on numbers we don't see. How much are the producers asking for Without A Trace and Cold Case? What is the minimum rating that CBS will tolerate from its terribly performing Old Christine, Gary Unmarried Wednesday comedy block?
If I had to separate them today, I'd guess The New Adventures of Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, Without A Trace, and Eleventh Hour get renewed and The Unit, Cold Case and Worst Week get canceled, but Les Moonves keeps dodging my calls.
The Friday shows (Flashpoint, Ghost Whisperer, Numb3rs) all have low Indexes, but lower expectations (or costs) as well, they look safe.
Here's some past quotes to think about; CBS Chief Les Moonves says “CBS Only Has Room For 3 or 4 New Shows Next Season”, and Entertainment President Nina Tassler says about the Wednesday comedy block “We’ve improved the time period, so it’s something we’d like to stick with.” as well as CBS doing a bit of public negotiating to knock down the prices on Cold Case and Without A Trace.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| THE EX-LIST | CBS | 1.9 | 2.9 | 0.66 | canceled |
| FLASHPOINT | CBS | 1.9 | 2.9 | 0.66 | |
| OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2.0 | 2.9 | 0.69 | |
| NUMB3RS | CBS | 2.1 | 2.9 | 0.72 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 2.2 | 2.9 | 0.76 | |
| HARPER'S ISLAND | CBS | 2.2 | 2.9 | 0.76 | |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 2.3 | 2.9 | 0.79 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER | CBS | 2.4 | 2.9 | 0.83 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 2.6 | 2.9 | 0.90 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 2.7 | 2.9 | 0.93 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 2.8 | 2.9 | 0.97 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.00 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.10 | |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.17 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.17 | |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.21 | |
| THE Mentalist | CBS | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.21 | |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.24 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.28 | |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.31 | |
| CSI | CBS | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.62 | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.62 |
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Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
The New Adventures of Old Christine: CBS has tried to create a second "comedy block" this season on Wednesday by moving Christine from Monday and slotting freshman Gary Unmarried. Both have been among CBS's worst scripted performers, but will Christine be given the benefit of the doubt?
Worst Week got the best slot in CBS's lineup for a new comedy, but has performed just below average for the net. Reports are that CBS expected much more in that prime timeslot and that Worst Week will not be coming back next season.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Yeah, Two and a Half men finally beats CSI. I’ve waited for this day so long…
uh how did 2 1/2 men beat CSI when they are tied?
Y’know, 2.5 men did better because they’re on top of the list. The averages of the two shows certainly aren’t exactly 4,7.
They are tied by average demo rating (since we get only one digit past the decimal point), but TAAHM average 18-49 viewership is 6.176 million while CSI’s is 6.163 million.
Charlie Sheen fans rejoice!
There you go.
As much as I love The Unit, I am losing hope with each passing day. I would love to see it renewed and brought back as a midseason replacement, but it won’t happen.
I love Old Christine as well, but I’m not really worried because ABC is probably gonna take if from CBS. Gary Unmarried should be canceled.
Let us hope that your guesses are correct, Bill. I love those shows, especially Eleventh Hour. And, that is why I have to continue to remind everyone about the ELEVENTH HOUR RENEWAL CAMPAIGN. Check it out if you haven’t:
http://www.cbs.com/forum/posts/list/46315.page
I can see CBS cancelling one of the Jerry Bruckheimer/Warner Bros dramas but not all three because they wouldn’t want to damage their relationship with both of them as they have given the network their biggest hits in both comedy and drama.
I wonder as a sweetener to cancelling one of the dramas, they will pick up the Bruckheimer/Warner Bros drama pilot Miami Trauma as they’ve been looking for a medical drama and with ER gone, they could capture that audience along with the regular CBS audience.
I wonder with CSI declining, I wonder how long it will be before it is moved from the plum Thursday 9pm slot to a 10pm slot. The Mentalist is most likely take it place either next season or the season after.
My Magic 8 Ball predicts the odds of CBS renewing shows.
Ghost Whisperer – it is certain
Without a Trace – without a doubt
Rules of Engagement – you may rely on it
Numb3rs – as I see it, yes
Flashpoint – signs point to yes
Gary Unmarried – outlook good
The Unit – outlook not so good
Cold Case – reply hazy, try again later
Old Christine – concentrate and ask again
The Eleventh Hour – better not tell you now
Game Show in My Head – don’t count on it
Million Dollar Password – my reply is no
Harper’s Island – my sources say no
Worst Week – Magic 8 Ball laughed at me for even asking
I don’t think we need any more medical dramas where they don’t bother to research the common sense on not defibrillating asystole. It’s bad enough ER couldn’t get it right after 15 years.
i woukd like to see Eleventh Hour Christine and Gay saved i enjoy them
My Sources Say The Unit is Back and Eleventh Hour is Back..Take it to the Bank
Now that Harper’s Island is being dumped to the Saturday dead zone for TV shows,
I hope CBS realizes that the Eleventh Hour ratings were pretty good. I am really hoping they give EH a renewal. I think the writing improved over time and it became a very good show. I’ll be there for any timeslot they’re willing to give it!
Numbers and CSI Miami have so jumped the shark. The writing on both are horrid. CSI Miami is borderline craptastic. I just watch it for the humor, the humor of how bad it can be, and it has beautiful scenery.
How the F is flashpoint still hanging around?
It is sad to see Gary Unmarried in Danger. Not the best comedy in the world, but Jay Mohr is a Pimp, and it is funny.
I agree with dvikib. EH improved significantly in the last episodes, winning its time slot in viewers and having decent demos (and it did better than WaT and CC and TU). I’m sure CBS knows this already.
And I second Kellie. Anyone who’s a fan of EH click on the link and join us.
Okay si Wikipeida has Eleventh Hour back on with Season 2 on Sunday. I hope this is real now. If it is, it restores my faith in big companies listening to the viewers. But I will still keep my fingers crossed. Thank you Lourdes for the campaign to keep this show.
Because Wikipedia is usually such a reliable source?
Old Christine is coming back either way. If CBS doesn’t renew it, (even though it likely will) ABC will pick it up. Eleventh Hour is gonna get canned, along with The Unit, Gary Unmarried, Harper’s Island and Worst Week. Not sure yet about Without a Trace or Cold Case but I’d say Trace is more likely to be dumped over Case.
I’d give the edge to Trace over Cold Case…It’s doing slightly better and has solved their pesky Tuesday at 10 problem. (Though I might be a bit biased since I hate Cold Case and can at least tolerate WAT).
Dan sorry but, have you seen CC demos lately? They’re pretty bad. I think WaT has a better chance.