The Fox show renewal "bubble" contains Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles, Dollhouse and Sit Down, Shut Up, but none of them have any realistic chance at renewal. So much for fall schedule announcement drama.
Newcomer Sit Down, Shut Up's second outing was so full of fail that it's been shifted to 7pm on Sunday where it can do less damage to the Fox numbers for the night.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES (FRI) | FOX | 1.25 | 2.7 | 0.46 | |
| DOLLHOUSE | FOX | 1.5 | 2.7 | 0.56 | |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 1.6 | 2.7 | 0.59 | canceled |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 1.8 | 2.7 | 0.67 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 2.1 | 2.7 | 0.78 | final season |
| SIT DOWN SHUT UP | FOX | 2.1 | 2.7 | 0.78 | |
| American Dad | FOX | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.00 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.04 | final season* |
| Bones | FOX | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.07 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.15 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.30 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.30 | |
| Lie To Me | FOX | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.33 | |
| 24 | FOX | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.41 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.74 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
Note that the Fox average used above is its final Season to Date average prior to American Idol (see below).
Notes:
*King of the Hill: Fox declined to renew King of the Hill, but has enough new episodes so that they will be airing well into 2009, through early fall by some reports.
Prison Break is in its final season.
'Til Death has done terribly, and has been off Fox’s schedule since October, Sony Pictures has reportedly made Fox such a sweet deal for future episodes that Fox has bought another entire season, proving that at a low enough price that even a ratings black hole is worth suffering through.
Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles: The numbers above are for only its Friday airings that began on February 13, 2009. FYI, It's 13 episode 18-49 average on Monday this season was 2.726 million (which is an average 18-49 rating of 2.1).
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
This has got to be the worse year yet for shows I love getting canned.
Has anyone else here seen Sit Down, Shut Up? From what I have seen it is awful- and not funny in the least.
Poor Dollhouse and poor Joss Whedon. He so deserves better than this. I wish he would start his own network and put whatever he wants on it.
OMG who cares about Joss Whedon alread. Dollhouse is LAME.
OMG who cares about Remi alread. Dollhouse is LAME.
JR
One more time:
OMG who cares about Remi alread. Remi is LAME.
JR
Hahaha, I think that was a freudian slip JR! Seriously who likes a show where the protagonists are despicable modern day slave traders with no remorse or sense of morality?! The only positive character is the main antagonist, Alpha, who actually does significant things to shut the maniacs down unlike that useless detective. Only people who worship everything Joss Whedon touches can like that show.
I’m curious, what are the numbers for TSCC for the season? Can you give me an idea Robert?
Remi said: “Hahaha, I think that was a freudian slip JR! Seriously who likes a show where the protagonists are despicable modern day slave traders with no remorse or sense of morality?! The only positive character is the main antagonist, Alpha, who actually does significant things to shut the maniacs down unlike that useless detective. Only people who worship everything Joss Whedon touches can like that show.”
I assume you’d rather watch Care Bears.
TT, the numbers are right up there. The Monday episodes averaged a 2.1 demo, while the Friday episodes averaged a 1.25
Your chart is incorrect about King of the Hill. It is returning in the fall to air its final 13 episodes.
Fred, you are correct. I will add a note.
“who likes a show where the protagonists are despicable modern day slave traders”
Uhm, they’re not the protagonists. Ballard and Echo are the protagonists, Alpha and everybody else are the antagonists.
Actually it’s not clear that the Dolls, including Echo, can be considered either one, which is part of the problem the show has. Whedon would have been smarter to have Caroline/Echo be a former Doll running from the Dollhouse and Alpha and trying to get Ballard to shut it down. Then you’d have the classic boy saves girl/boy falls for girl situation which is always a winner on TV.
One little mistake like that, and the show gets canceled.
Personally, I’d like to see a show where everybody is a “villain” and they repeatedly beat the “good guys”. It would be far more interesting than these idiotic morality plays with cops regularly violating people’s civil rights.
“Final season”? I think the network press releases are getting to you, Bill.
Dollhouse never had a chance, it was put on Friday ffs. It is a great show too, well not great, but good.
*Sigh*
Bye Bye Cameron
Joss Whedon indicated when Firefly was canceled that he would never put another show on the Fox network.
He should have listened to himself and not put another show on Fox. Fox is a hard network to launch a new show. Every now and then, one will sneak up and become a hit. However, when they put you on Friday nights, just wave the white flag and move on to the next project.
I would still love to see Firefly back as a movie/miniseries event (like what Fox did with Alien Nation back in the 90′s).
Well Craig, they did make a movie of Firefly, “Serenity”, which was a huge hit in DVD sales. You probably already knew that, and weren’t talking about that, but on the off chance that you didn’t know…
Like i’ve stated many times, every show except Do Not Disturb, Terminator, Dollhouse and Prison Break, is coming back next year. King of the Hill is ending, however not until late 2009 where it can finish burning off its remaining episodes in the 7:30 slot.
Also I think Family Guy should be put in the renewal announced category, Its already been renewed for an 8th production cycle and the 7th hasn’t even started airing yet. Plus the star wars special Something Something Something Darkside is already scheduled to air next year so its safe to say that the show is returning.
I should add Sit Down Shut Up to my “not returning” list. It seems the move to 7 for the show indicates that Sit Down will not be returning, probably not even to the 7 pm time period sundays. Its remaining episodes will likely be burned off this summer.