Update: Updated the table with the NBC May 4 announcements. No official announcement yet for Chuck, Medium or Law & Order. NBC now expects to announce their full 2009 schedule on May 19.
NBC's advertising upfront meeting is Monday, May 4 (the first of the big English broadcast networks). Their new fall schedule will be announced no later than that date, so this is the last installment of the NBC Renew/Cancel Index before decision time.
Without further ado, here are our final predictions of the likelihood of renewal for all the NBC scripted shows that still hang in the balance. I'd bet that not everyone agrees with us. Feel free to post your guesses in the comments.
| Show | Bill | Robert |
| Parks and Recreation - renewed 5/4 | 90% | 98% |
| Southland - renewed 5/4 | 90% | 90% (and falling) |
| Law And Order | 75% | 65%* |
| Chuck | 75% | 86% |
| MEDIUM | 75% | 97% |
| MY NAME IS EARL | 55% | 51% |
| KATH & KIM | 15% | 16% |
| KINGS | 0% | 0% |
| LIFE - officially cancelled 5/4 | 0% | 0% (sadly!) |
| KNIGHT RIDER | 0% | 0% |
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*100% if you include both NBC and USA.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0.39 | canceled |
| KINGS | NBC | 1.2 | 2.3 | 0.52 | |
| FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS | NBC | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.57 | returning |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 1.5 | 2.3 | 0.65 | canceled |
| LIFE (WED) | NBC | 1.65 | 2.3 | 0.72 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 1.8 | 2.3 | 0.78 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.87 | canceled |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.91 | |
| Law And Order | NBC | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.91 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.04 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.04 | |
| MEDIUM | NBC | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.09 | |
| Parks and Recreation | NBC | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.13 | |
| Southland | NBC | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.26 | |
| 30 Rock | NBC | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.39 | returning |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.43 | returning |
| E.R. | NBC | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.48 | final season |
| HEROES | NBC | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.57 | returning |
| OFFICE | NBC | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.74 | returning |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. I have adjusted the NBC adults 18-49 season to date average to remove the increase (of 370,000) it received during the Super Bowl week because that increase had nothing to do with the normal viewership of the network or any of its other shows.
Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I'm indicating renewal for them.
Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
Heroes is definitely back for next season.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
So I see that Chuck has moved to the better side of the bubble. I’m curious why you guys think so. Don’t get me wrong, I’m thrilled, but I’d like to hear why.
Glad to see things are looking better for Chuck. Without it, NBC is dead to me.
Chuck FTW.
I’m with Dylan, but for all of the shows? Are these predicitons based on the numbers only, or other things as well?
Dylan, I always predicted the four shows, Chuck, L&O, Medium and Earl were likely to be renewed. Why would you say it moved?
Jon, I cannot help that my guesses are influenced by other things I read, but if you mean do we have inside information, I don’t.
Bill,Robert, here’s a question- what do you think NBC will do if Parks and Recreation or Southland drops dramatically this week?
As much as I like Chuck, I only give it 60/40. If NBC renews it, it will be because it is afraid to rely too much on possible new shows. It’s recent (and possibly ongoing) string of failures has to make it and its advertisers gun shy. Mediocre ratings on a mediocre network, as someone said, are not too comforting. Other shows:
Parks and Rec: 90% unless its ratings slip significantly, which I think they might.
Southland: 80% and 60% if the ratings continue to dive.
L&O: 90% with a very short order and lots of “We matched Gun Smoke” PR
Medium: 60% because it’s time-limited
Earl: 50/50
Everything else: 0%
One question for next year: are you going to remove Leno from the index numbers and only use 8-10 p.m. shows for NBC’s average?
Without looking at the last Renewal/Cancel list, I think Chuck was in the yellow or “In Danger”. I could be wrong, and I’ll check now, but I was wondering why it changed on the list. I know you guys had said when the dust settled, it would return, but I thought perhaps new statistics (outside of the preliminary numbers from last night) had come in. My apologies if I was mistaken.
Michael, we evaluate new data as we see it. Speaking for myself, I’ll hold off on evaluating new data until there is actually new data.
Bill: I hope you put a sacrifice at the altar of the server gods, before you posted this!
Bill or Robert, when they announced SVU renewal a few weeks back, didn’t that include the original L&O or am i mistaken?
Dylan, Chuck has been green for a quite a while now. Weeks, at least, perhaps months.
P, no announcement yet on original L&O.
David, since Nielsen creates the averages and they will certainly include Leno, that’s what I will use. Now if your question is will Leno be in *this* list or lumped with the unscripted shows, it’ll be lumped with the unscripted shows.
PREDICTIONS
At least 2 shows in GREEN will NOT return.
At least 1 show in ORANGE will return.
This WEBSITE has delusions of grandeur. The NETWORK makes the decisions.
PS I think the next week of waiting for a decision on the-show-that-should-not-be-named renewal is going to give this fanboy an ulcer.
Indeed, my mistake. I may have been harking back to an older one. In any case, I’m very pleased by these developments.
Speaking for myself, I’ll hold off on evaluating new data until there is actually new data.
Well, you’re just no fun at all
Bill, I wasn’t referring to inside sources. What I meant was are those numbers based on just the ratings, or do they take into account other things? Most notably NBC’s Leno situation, and L&O’s apparent “Dick Wolf mojo?”
MAJC, it’s you who has delusions. Both Bill and I gave one orange show a chance to return, and Bill has been saying for weeks that he does not expect all the shows in the green to return.
MAJC, by your tone I’m guessing you’re a fan of Knight Rider, Life, Kath & Kim or Kings. Dream On.
And if you multiply my % guesses for the green shows together, I’m guessing that one will not return either.