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Oddsmakers: What Are The Chances For NBC Show Renewals?

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April 28th, 2009

Update: Updated the table with the NBC May 4 announcements. No official announcement yet for Chuck, Medium or Law & Order. NBC now expects to announce their full 2009 schedule on May 19.

NBC's advertising upfront meeting is Monday, May 4 (the first of the big English broadcast networks). Their new fall schedule will be announced no later than that date, so this is the last installment of the NBC Renew/Cancel Index before decision time.

Without further ado, here are our final predictions of the likelihood of renewal for all the NBC scripted shows that still hang in the balance. I'd bet that not everyone agrees with us. Feel free to post your guesses in the comments.


Show Bill Robert
PARKS AND RECREATION - renewed 5/4 90% 98%
Southland - renewed 5/4 90% 90% (and falling)
Law And Order 75% 65%*
CHUCK 75% 86%
MEDIUM 75% 97%
MY NAME IS EARL 55% 51%
KATH & KIM 15% 16%
KINGS 0% 0%
LIFE - officially cancelled 5/4 0% 0% (sadly!)
KNIGHT RIDER 0% 0%

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*100% if you include both NBC and USA.

This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects.  Here are the others:

Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.


PROGRAM Net  STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD)  Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating Renew/ Cancel index Status
CRUSOE NBC 0.9  2.3 0.39 canceled
KINGS NBC 1.2  2.3 0.52  
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS NBC 1.3  2.3 0.57 returning
LIPSTICK JUNGLE NBC 1.5  2.3 0.65 canceled
LIFE (WED) NBC 1.65  2.3 0.72  
KNIGHT RIDER NBC 1.8  2.3 0.78  
MY OWN WORST ENEMY NBC 2.0  2.3 0.87 canceled
KATH & KIM NBC 2.1  2.3 0.91  
Law And Order NBC 2.1  2.3 0.91  
CHUCK NBC 2.4  2.3 1.04  
MY NAME IS EARL NBC 2.4  2.3 1.04  
MEDIUM NBC 2.5  2.3 1.09  
PARKS AND RECREATION NBC 2.6  2.3 1.13  
Southland NBC 2.9  2.3 1.26  
30 ROCK NBC 3.2  2.3 1.39  returning
Law And Order:SVU NBC 3.3  2.3 1.43  returning
E.R. NBC 3.4  2.3 1.48  final season
HEROES NBC 3.6  2.3 1.57  returning
OFFICE NBC 4.0  2.3 1.74  returning

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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. I have adjusted the NBC adults 18-49 season to date average to remove the increase (of 370,000) it received during the Super Bowl week because that increase had nothing to do with the normal viewership of the network or any of its other shows.

Notes:

Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I'm indicating renewal for them.

Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.

Heroes is definitely back for next season.

How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.

Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.

 
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