Update: Updated the table with the NBC May 4 announcements. No official announcement yet for Chuck, Medium or Law & Order. NBC now expects to announce their full 2009 schedule on May 19.
NBC's advertising upfront meeting is Monday, May 4 (the first of the big English broadcast networks). Their new fall schedule will be announced no later than that date, so this is the last installment of the NBC Renew/Cancel Index before decision time.
Without further ado, here are our final predictions of the likelihood of renewal for all the NBC scripted shows that still hang in the balance. I'd bet that not everyone agrees with us. Feel free to post your guesses in the comments.
| Show | Bill | Robert |
| Parks and Recreation - renewed 5/4 | 90% | 98% |
| Southland - renewed 5/4 | 90% | 90% (and falling) |
| Law And Order | 75% | 65%* |
| Chuck | 75% | 86% |
| MEDIUM | 75% | 97% |
| MY NAME IS EARL | 55% | 51% |
| KATH & KIM | 15% | 16% |
| KINGS | 0% | 0% |
| LIFE - officially cancelled 5/4 | 0% | 0% (sadly!) |
| KNIGHT RIDER | 0% | 0% |
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*100% if you include both NBC and USA.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0.39 | canceled |
| KINGS | NBC | 1.2 | 2.3 | 0.52 | |
| FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS | NBC | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.57 | returning |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 1.5 | 2.3 | 0.65 | canceled |
| LIFE (WED) | NBC | 1.65 | 2.3 | 0.72 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 1.8 | 2.3 | 0.78 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.87 | canceled |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.91 | |
| Law And Order | NBC | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.91 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.04 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.04 | |
| MEDIUM | NBC | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.09 | |
| Parks and Recreation | NBC | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.13 | |
| Southland | NBC | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.26 | |
| 30 Rock | NBC | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.39 | returning |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.43 | returning |
| E.R. | NBC | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.48 | final season |
| HEROES | NBC | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.57 | returning |
| OFFICE | NBC | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.74 | returning |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. I have adjusted the NBC adults 18-49 season to date average to remove the increase (of 370,000) it received during the Super Bowl week because that increase had nothing to do with the normal viewership of the network or any of its other shows.
Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I'm indicating renewal for them.
Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
Heroes is definitely back for next season.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Medium is the weak link there, same numbers as chuck but later time slot means leno factor, actually think chuck would help lead into leno, though I won’t watch him, if it gets a later slot. Kath & Kim needed to be removed from the first episode, not funny at all, Earl is done, and finally I think NBC acted too quickly with Heroes, quite frankly they lost me around November and i see know reason to start back on it, again its done just a matter of time, and I said it a few weeks ago i’ll say it again there will be a Chuck season 4. Thank You guys for a compelling website, I’m so glad I found it.
Paul, I think those results from the NBC press release are for last week’s Chuck.
I will say it doesn’t bode well for MEDIUM that even though the show did quite well last week (finishing 1st in all demos), NBC didn’t play that up in the headlines/main part of the press release. I think that means MEDIUM may be a goner at NBC, while CHUCK will live on.
Nevermind….lol…I can’t read. NBC DID mention MEDIUM in the headlines as being #1 in all key demos in its timeslot last week.
MEduim needs to stay on i will miss it
Actually Kim Flashpoint is developed with CTV in Canada, CBC doesn’t really make shows anymore, well they do but no one watches, except Hockey, I hate hockey, not too much of a Flashpoint fan either, surprisig though how many shows have Vancouver production.
Kim, I’m not much for reading the tea leaves in network press releases. I doubt PR folks are given instructions to tone down the hype on shows that are doomed. I think it’s “goes to 11″ on every press release with whatever you’ve got!
Mike, not that surprising. Vancouver’s a really nice, and nice looking city, that’s not too far from LA (compared to any other big Canadian city that might be used for exteriors), but lots cheaper! Plus, best weather in Canada!
I think you guys are dead on
nice to see chuck above 50%
but i am still worried (crosses fingers)
sry to see life and kings go
life was really good
and kings didnt get its legs
but had potential
too bad neither was pulling in the numbers
and a surprise especially for the show LIFE as i think its really good
why is noone watching?….
So LIFE will be missed by me especially …sigh (shakes fist at NBC)
kings we hardly knew ye
Life was great watched it all, but for me it ended really well and Damian Lewis has more characters in him, he’ll be back, he is basically why I watched it anyway, they could have given him a new partner every week I still only watch it for him, so I guess I had a mancrush on charlie crews, oh well one is ok, lol.
“Chuck” is #1 on Amazon’s HD video on demand service. This is a good thing for Chuck’s renewal prospects.
Here’s the list:
1. Chuck [HD]
2. Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles [HD]
3. Battlestar Galactica (’04) [HD]
4. Californication [HD]
5. Fringe [HD]
6. The Office [HD]
7. 30 Rock [HD]
8. Smallville [HD]
9. Caprica [HD]
10. Supernatural [HD]
Kenneth, Considering you can get to the top of the iTunes list with 30,000 viewers and Amazon is less popular (so #1 could mean less than 20,000 viewers). No, that doesn’t mean much for Chuck’s chances.
@Kim, Just fact checking, Lifetime is reportedly paying $1.3 million/episode, NOT $3-4 million. Huge difference. And while that 1.3 set a record for Lifetime back when they made the deal, it is a little lower than the $1.4 million/episode TNT is paying for Cold Case. (A quick Google search didn’t find prices for the other major CBS shows).
Yeah, on Thursday, Lost will be #1, on Friday will be Grey’s..
Chet said
kings we hardly knew ye
That’s probably just as well
I’m surprised how optimistic you guys are about chuck, i was thinking more of 50/50 or even 40/60 but I ain’t gonna argue!
but u guyz r waaaaaaaaay offz on KR itZ gUNNA COM BAK!!!
2,0000%% chanc of renew becauz NBC LOV KR
sorry, there just wern’t enough ridiculous fanboy posts in this article, it was getting too boring!
Anyone know if Kings has already been yanked as they just moved it to Saturdays and already the next week we’re looking at reruns or is this a tactic to try to bump up a few shows before the fall lineup is released.
LOL @ kenneth..
bro you made my day!
Hey cool i say there is a 90% chance someone will teach ya a lesson one of these days.
As a newbie to Chuck fandom…GO CHUCK GO!!!!! Domo arigato, Mr. Roboto
“I wonder why you have such a high regard for P&R as far as it’s renewal chances go. As i read by episode 2 it was already below Chuck in viewer numbers and just one tick higher in demo, and by episode 3 it is already 1 million viewers below and now also below in demo, so it’s dropping like a stone.”
I’m obviously not Bill or Robert, but it’s pretty clear that NBC seems to be behind Parks & Rec like they were for The Office and 30 Rock – they think they have another marketable star in Poehler (like Carell and Fey) and both of those series took a season (or more) to start pulling in viewers. I’m not saying that I think Parks & Rec is going to perform like the other two (personally I’m a fan of The Office and 30 Rock and don’t care for P&R), but it’s easy to guess what NBC is thinking. Similarly, I think they’re behind Southland until it truly tanks.
I also think L&O is pretty much a lock for at least a short final season. They can market the hell out of the fact it’s the 20th season, and as alluded to in the original post they’ve got to be worried about what will happen if Meloni and Hartigay aren’t back on SVU. On that note, I’m a little surprised they announced SVU’s renewal early, although I guess it could have been a message to its stars that the show will continue with or without them.
PARKS AND RECREATION 90%
SOUTHLAND 95% (I think NBC is so in love w/ this show they’ll keep it no matter what, at LEAST for one season)
LAW AND ORDER 90% (There’s no way they’ll cancel it one year short of 20…the only other option I can think of would be sending it to USA)
CHUCK 85% (my heart wants to say 100% of course)
MEDIUM 85%
MY NAME IS EARL 50%
KATH & KIM 5%
KINGS -1000%
LIFE 0% (sorry)
KNIGHT RIDER -100%