Three shows ABC shows are legitimately on the bubble: Samantha Who?, Castle and Surviving Suburbia.
Samantha Who? is no longer on ABCs schedule. It did fine airing behind Dancing with the Stars, but on its own it did terribly. Still, it is in its second year, and was brought back under a similar situation last season. Castle started reasonably strong, but has weakened substantially, and last night managed only a 2.1 in the all important 18-49 demo. That's cancel territory. Surviving Suburbia has the plum post-Dancing slot and slipped last night to a 2.4 18-49 demo rating, that's marginal for renewal. If I had to make the call today, and ABC's upfront meeting isn't until May 19, I'd give the thumbs up to Samantha and Suburbia and down to Castle.
These shows aren't even close to the bubble: In the Motherhood, Better Off Ted, The Unusuals and Cupid, they are all going to be cancelled.
And could Scrubs actually be coming back for another season? After According to Jim anything is possible, but I doubt it.
On April 23, ABC announced the official pick-ups of the following shows for the 2009-10 season: America's Funniest Home Videos, The Bachelor, Brothers & Sisters, Dancing with the Stars, Desperate Housewives, Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, Grey's Anatomy, Lost, Private Practice, Supernanny, Ugly Betty, Wife Swap. Not a surprise in the bunch.
This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN THE MOTHERHOOD | ABC | 1.6 | 2.7 | 0.59 | |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P | ABC | 1.7 | 2.7 | 0.63 | final season |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 1.7 | 2.7 | 0.63 | canceled |
| BETTER OFF TED | ABC | 1.8 | 2.7 | 0.67 | |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 1.8 | 2.7 | 0.67 | canceled |
| THE UNUSUALS | ABC | 1.8 | 2.7 | 0.67 | |
| CUPID | ABC | 1.9 | 2.7 | 0.70 | |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 1.9 | 2.7 | 0.70 | canceled |
| SCRUBS-TU 9PM | ABC | 1.9 | 2.7 | 0.70 | final season? |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2.2 | 2.7 | 0.81 | final season |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 2.2 | 2.7 | 0.81 | canceled |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 2.3 | 2.7 | 0.85 | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.89 | |
| CASTLE | ABC | 2.5 | 2.7 | 0.93 | |
| SURVIVING SUBURBIA | ABC | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.00 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.07 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.26 | |
| LOST | ABC | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.56 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.70 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.96 |
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Notes:
To remove clutter from the table, I have included only the day/timeslot with the most airings for According to Jim and Scrubs.
According to Jim: After 8 seasons, and recent horrible ratings, but presumably great sydication profits, ABC's According to Jim looks like its prime-time run is coming to an end this season as one of the stars says the stage has been bulldozed. That seems pretty final to me.
Scrubs: Eight seasons is the end for Scrubs as well. Update: Or perhaps not. I am doubting that retraction, I believe he spoke the truth initially and then got his hand slapped and tried to backtrack. I'm keeping it marked as final season.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
‘Better Off Ted’ and ‘Cupid’ are still atop the bubble: if next Tuesday’s ‘Better Off Ted’ and any one of the next three ‘Cupid’s’ show significant upward bump in A18-49, they are in serious contention. If not, then their bubble has burst.
dumont, because Better off Ted is a sitcom, I’m inclined to believe it still at least has a slim chance. Cupid, isn’t a 30 minute sitcom though, and its chances are so slim, I don’t see them at all. Numerically, the bubble seems to already have burst for it.
I disagree completely.
I think ABC would rather get rid of Suburbia than Castle… I still don’t know what they were thinking when they picked this show up… The retention out of DWTS is pathetic, but Castle is managing to hold on to Suburbia’s audience week after week – and yes, I’m aware that the 18-49 demo is only a 2.1… 
Guess we’ll have to wait and see…
Can anyone explain why Castle’s on at 10? It doesn’t seem like a 10:00 show to me, and I would think it would do better at 8 or 9.
Booji, that’s one of the mysteries that is ABC’s programming schedule. Really wish ABC had left Castle after DWTS.
Much as I would like to disagree with this assessment of Castle’s renewal chances, I don’t have much faith in the same network that got rid of shows like The Job, Miracles, Knights of Prosperity, and Pushing Daisies.
Castle is at 10 because thats where ABC had an open spot. 9 is taken on every night by hit shows that they weren’t about to move. 8 was open on a couple of nights, but it makes more sense to put the comedies at 8 and the dramas at 10. Castle isn’t directly after DWTS now because Stars is usually 1 1/2 hours and it would be stupid to start an hour-long drama at 9:30.
See I think Castle still has a good shot of being renewed. There’s a lot of buzz recently online for support for this show. I think it should be in a different time slot. I think it would do even better. I also think Samantha Who will not be renewed. Castle has better numbers than it. ABC should keep Castle and just move it to an early time. Just my opinion.
@Jennifer, When? Where would you put it?
Please bring back Samatha Who?!, Better off Ted, and The Unusuals. All Are great shows. I hate Dancing with the stars, and all the reality crap on TV!!
I am a huge fan of Scrubs – and the seasons has been great, but I would like the show to end this season, and go out in Style.
I’m not sure but Monday night against CSI Miami is not helping. I would have to look at the schedule more closely. I just would like Castle stay and be renewed.
Castle has grown on me a lot over the course of its run and I would like to see it return but ultimately its fate rests on whether ABC feel they have to bring a new drama from this season back, if they do then Castle seems to be their only choice after The Unusuals collapsed last week. Unfortunately I’m not holding my breath though, so I guess Nathan ‘show killer’ Fillion strikes again!
abc should try castle on wednesdays at 8 in the fall as its an easy slot castle could definately build an audience there.
i think better off ted should be renewed and should air tuesdays at 8.
better off ted is definately the best new sitcom of the season and the best abc has had since it screwed over carpoolers
I just hope SW? gets renewed dont care for the rest
I never thought about Wednesday nights at 8 for Castle. That’s a great idea Rick.
Hopefully ABC realizes that there is a dedicated fan base starting for this show.
Out of interest is there any show with a ‘dedicated fan base’ that we aren’t sending to Wednesday at 8?
Castle will bomb if moved to Wednesday at 8… It’s not a strong enough show to start off an evening… I think that, if renewed, the show should stay in the 10pm timeslot. The problem with ABC’s schedule is that Castle can only be put on Tuesday or Wednesday nights, because they won’t put a crime show after Grey’s Anatomy or Desperate Housewives, and it sucks because Tuesdays and Wednesdays are ABC’s weak spots, especially in the fall, without Lost.
And as far as Castle’s current timeslot goes, I think ABC should renew Samantha Who?, put that show after DWTS and then put Brothers & Sisters in the 10pm timeslot – the show has proven that it can stand on its own without a Housewives lead-in (when the 2-hour special aired), so that would make a great female-centered lineup. Plus, Desperate Housewives could help launch a new show for ABC.
If Surviving Suburbia returns, they might as well change the name to According To Bob.
ABC has to renew Samantha Who? !!!
My take on ABC’s renewal prospects % chance of renewal:
70% Samantha Who?
60% Better Off Ted
55% Castle
50% Surviving Suburbia
3% The Unusuals
2% Cupid
1% In The Motherhood
I know a lot of people would disagree with Ted, but I feel a *little* more sure of this given the Scrubs renewal talk (even though i don’t think that will come to fruition). Ted nearly matches Scrubs numbers, so maybe ABC isn’t as disappointed with their anemic Wed 8pm hour as they, arguably, should be.
Come on Bob Saget over Nathan Fillion?! I want to puke! Actually, I already did on Bob Saget’s face. Hahaha! Isn’t there an “official” online petition to keep Castle? ABC please keep Castle!