Note: this is really just a different slice of DVR viewing info than what Bill provided earlier. If you're exclusively interested in the Harper's Island aspects, scroll down below the table. Our regularly published DVR data is also available.
There are many ways to look at the DVR numbers, but what I am focusing on these days is the change above the Live+SD 18-49 rating once a full week of DVR viewing is factored in. Comparing to the live viewing numbers is interesting and in a case of a show like The Office, that almost half of the adults 18-49 who watch The Office are watching it on DVR is somewhat eye grabbing, though probably not particularly good news for NBC. People are notorious for not watching as much advertising when they watch on DVR.
Then again, consider that what we're listing is all average program viewing for the entire duration of the show, and that according to Nielsen any commercial skipping is already factored out of the numbers (translation: even more people are actually watching these shows on DVR than we list because time spent skipping and fast forwarding through commercials is not, according to Nielsen, counted in these numbers. To be clear, the measuring doesn't just apply to ad skipping. If you watch 24 on DVR and skip through the "previously on 24", that time is not counted either.
While the comparisons to the live numbers are interesting, because we don't post the live numbers anywhere but in the DVR data, and we do post live plus same day DVR viewing everywhere, measuring the Live+SD increase makes for easier comparisons. Looked at by that metric, and in absolute terms rather than percentage increases, House got the biggest increase for the week ending April 12, 20009. And for that week, it was the regular edition of The Office, and not the special 8pm version that got the biggest increase:
| Rank | Show | Net | R=Repeat S=Special P=Premiere | 18-49 L+SD | 18-49 L+7 | Ratings Increase vs L+SD |
| 1 | HOUSE | FOX | 5.06 | 6.18 | 1.12 | |
| 2 | OFFICE | NBC | 3.97 | 5.03 | 1.06 | |
| 3 | HEROES | NBC | 2.65 | 3.61 | 0.96 | |
| 4 | LOST | ABC | 3.84 | 4.79 | 0.95 | |
| 5 | OFFICE 4/9(S)-04/09/2009 | NBC | S | 3.39 | 4.32 | 0.93 |
| 6 | CSI | CBS | 3.76 | 4.57 | 0.81 | |
| 7 | Bones | FOX | 2.47 | 3.18 | 0.71 | |
| 8 | 30 Rock | NBC | 3.13 | 3.84 | 0.71 | |
| 9 | Mentalist, THE | CBS | 3.65 | 4.34 | 0.69 | |
| 10 | 24 | FOX | 3.77 | 4.46 | 0.69 | |
| 11 | FRINGE | FOX | 3.99 | 4.68 | 0.69 | |
| 12 | Criminal Minds | CBS | 3.25 | 3.93 | 0.68 | |
| 13 | American Idol-TUESDAY | FOX | 8.17 | 8.83 | 0.66 | |
| 14 | Parks and Recreation | NBC | P | 3.03 | 3.59 | 0.56 |
| 15 | NCIS | CBS | 3.62 | 4.17 | 0.55 | |
| 16 | Southland | NBC | P | 3.15 | 3.68 | 0.53 |
| 17 | Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 3.31 | 3.84 | 0.53 | |
| 18 | HELL'S KITCHEN | FOX | 3.32 | 3.81 | 0.49 | |
| 19 | TERMINATOR: SRH CNR CHRON | FOX | 1.27 | 1.76 | 0.49 | |
| 20 | DOLLHOUSE | FOX | 1.39 | 1.87 | 0.48 | |
| 21 | SCRUBS-WED 8PM | ABC | 1.88 | 2.36 | 0.48 | |
| 22 | HARPER'S ISLAND | CBS | P | 2.63 | 3.11 | 0.48 |
| 23 | Chuck | NBC | 2.15 | 2.63 | 0.48 |
I included a few extra shows beyond twenty to make a couple of points. For all of CBS' talk about how great the DVR viewership for Harper's Island is, even in the series premiere it only got similar bumps to Chuck and Dollhouse. And again, for all The Talk of Dollhouse's great DVR viewership, its DVR viewership is really only great compared to its low overall viewing. Same for Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, which actually got more of a bump for the week above than Dollhouse. But even with those "top 20" style bumps, they had the lowest overall live plus seven adults 18-49 numbers of any show on the list by a relative mile.
As for Harper's Island, the reason it got moved to Saturdays, is NOT, as CBS suggests that so many people are watching on DVR that it doesn't matter where they air it. In its subsequent airings, we don't have the Live+7 data yet -- and neither does CBS -- but like CBS, we do have the Live+SD viewing. Last week, Harper's Island slipped down to a 1.9 live plus same day adults 18-49 rating and that is the reason why it got moved to Saturdays. You can pretty much count on DVR viewing being down for those weeks as well.
But the bigger story remains that DVR viewing is taking its toll. House, and The Office got a full adults 18-49 rating point boost over the live plus same day viewing. And it's good for press releases, and it's good for trying to make the case that House hasn't realllly slipped as much against previous years when you factor in DVR viewing, the question remains, is it a good thing? Is it good for FOX that nearly 20% of the viewing for House happened after the day that it aired? With advertising sales being the predominate judge of what is good, I don't see how that can be viewed as a good thing.
DVR viewing is only going to get bigger, and the networks don't seem to have figured out a good plan for dealing with that yet.
Meanwhile, though some have claimed American Idol isn't DVR proof, relative to the field, and its size, it remains relatively DVR proof. For the week above though, the percentage of people viewing it on DVR was only 21% for the Tuesday show and 15% for the Wednesday results show. And over 70% of the people who were watching it on DVR appeared to be merely timeshifting and watched on the same night the show aired.
Robert, this list is absolutely fascinating. The more ways you can look at the informatio, the better I think. I hope this will be made a weekly accompanyment to the regular DVR list, although I know you guys are already churning out lists left and right.
I know that the networks treat live plus same day as the same as live, but it isn’t. The SD folks are skipping the commercials. Robert’s statement: “But the bigger story remains that DVR viewing is taking its toll,” is the real kicker of this story. The network that can come up with a money making solution that works with DVR viewing will be ahead of the game. That, I think, will also reduce the value of live plus same day, increase the value of downloaded material, and actually make illegal downloads “profitable” as those numbers can be used to justify rates to advertisers. This is probably a few years away from sinking in to the network folks who grew up with a different system, but I only see DVR and other media use going up, and not down.
David, I don’t think the networks treat them the same as live in any other way than press releases (since the data is available at the same time)and I’m sure at the networks, special attention is paid to live viewing. I just prefer the L+SD comparison since those numbers are commonly reported everywhere and live is reported nowhere. I agree, DVR, on demand, online, etc, will all increase, but it seems like DVR will be the more impacting for a while.
the128boy: it’s hard to say. The truth is mostly that week-to-week things don’t change very much. though this didn’t wind up being mostly about Harper’s Island, without the recent Harper’s Island scheduling change, I don’t know if I’d have been motivated to do it.
Thanks and I did not realize that the data came in that form. I think what may be worse, and perhaps this is what’s already known to the networks, is that the target group (18-49) which I fall in slightly above the midpoint, are the folks most likely to use DVRs (or so I’d guess). I’d bet that even gets worse as you move up in income levels. Do you know if the data shows this?
We do not see DVR viewing numbers sliced by household income, or sadly, any regularly produced weekly data sliced by hh income. It’s a reasonable guess since paying extra for DVR is probably viewed as more discretionary than say, basic cable, but it’s just a guess.
We don’t even see a lot of age slices for the DVR data, what we do see suggests that DVR skews younger with some shows. For example, in the list above, the regularly scheduled episode of the office was watched on DVR by 41% of the 18-49s who watched it, and by 47% of the adults 18-34 who watched.
Correct me if I’m wrong here, but shouldn’t broadcast networks be very concerned that DVR viewing seems to be taking such a large chunk out of the live audience? If House hasn’t actually lost any viewers, they’re just DVR’ing the show as you suggest, then isn’t FOX losing money despite the fact that viewership is the same?
It’s my impression that broadcast networks make most of their money from advertising for a live program. I don’t see how they can make up the shortfall being produced by increased DVR usage, unless they were to charge based on Live + 7 ratings as opposed to Live + SD ratings (and of course advertisers would kick and scream). This seems like another part of a very bleak picture for broadcast’s future, with the advent of cable networks, online viewing, and increased DVD sales.
Which DVRs are captured in this data? Does it get Direct TV and Dish Network data too, cable Tivo, how complete is the data? Or is it just Neilsen family DVRs?
I know a lot of people who still use VCRs too that probably aren’t reflected anywhere or is there some Neilsen component that supposedly captures that? Skipping commercials probably is lower with VCRs than DVRs.
Seems to me that there’s a few relatively simple things they could do to decrease commercial skipping. Mix in future episode previews amidst the commercials. Use the show stars in some commercials. Fans wouldn’t want to miss previews or ads their favorite stars were in. Even commercial ‘premiers’ in prime time would draw some viewers. Overall maybe a ‘different category’ approach to prime time commercials. Show different stuff than you air at two in the afternoon. If people knew there was a different approach used in prime time, that ‘special’ approach could encourage watching vs. skipping. Use some of the logic that works so well for SuperBowl commercials. Funny stuff seems to keep people looking at the screen and of course sex still sells too. New movie clips/previews mixed in too on a regular basis, puts eyes on the screen. For some stuff like fast food they could run spots that had a limited time offer like 2 for 1 burgers for two days if you mention the TV show or special code. They’re using the same formula that’s been around for a generation, time to get creative. This is a problem that can be solved if people use there heads.
Two words: Product Placement.
Inserting products of advertisers into the show, billboards by the side of the road, TV commercials/radio commercials in the background on the set. The key is making them blend in naturally. One way NOT to do it was when HEROES did the Sprint thing in the Season 3 premier that was way too in-your-face “Parkman: “Your cell. I gotta use your cell. I gotta call home.” New African Character: “No service here. Should have gone with Sprint.” Characters using Sprint products is one thing, that was going overboard.
Network TV Sucks, as with all numbers from Nielsen, only Nielsen families are tracked. But their DVR and VCR use is tracked. The one time we saw the VCR numbers, more than a year ago, they were insignificantly small.
Go Fox News !!!! You are the best.