With the announcement this week that the CW would be abandoning programming Sunday nights and returning them to its affiliates, fans that were hoping their CW show would be saved "because they've got a lot of space to fill" can now throw in the towel. With the CW's programming time dropping from 13 hours to 10, there just isn't any room left for hope.
No room for Reaper, Everybody Hates Chris, The Game, and Privileged. They will all be canceled.
This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY | CW | 0.2 | 0.79 | 0.25 | canceled |
| VALENTINE | CW | 0.3 | 0.79 | 0.38 | canceled |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS | CW | 0.6 | 0.79 | 0.76 | |
| GAME, THE | CW | 0.7 | 0.79 | 0.89 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 0.7 | 0.79 | 0.89 | |
| REAPER | CW | 0.9 | 0.79 | 1.15 | |
| 90210 | CW | 1.1 | 0.79 | 1.40 | |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 1.1 | 0.79 | 1.40 | |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 1.1 | 0.79 | 1.40 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1.2 | 0.79 | 1.53 | |
| Smallville | CW | 1.4 | 0.79 | 1.78 |
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Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
why do you use 18-49 demo, as The CW focuses on women 18-34? then it does not make sense…
i think Privileged could get a second season, because its a ‘CW / women’ series that could work out. Reaper, EHHC, Game… nope.
Dutch Guy, two reasons: 1.) the 18-49 numbers seem to wind up being predictive of renewals anyway, 2.) we don’t get good season-to-date averages for 18-34.
is there any chance reaper can be picked up by another network
I’m just glad that Smallville was renewed. One of the best shows on TV.
CW’s move to abandon sundays while like NBC’s giving Leno the 10pm timeslot.
I wonder what shows will debut next fall in the CW network
It’s called midseason and summer. The CW has plenty of space in a 52 week year for more than 10 programs.
Reaper fans: Tell the CW! The show is not officially canceled yet, but there’s precious little time left until May upfronts. Remember, last year Reaper was declared dead too, but came back at the last minute to get a renewal. Snail and email addresses, petitions, etc., are organized here: http://community.livejournal.com/reaperdmv/37449.html
The CW has more than 10 slots next year. They only have the 10 for the Fall season. There’s still midseason and the summer.
Melrose 2.0, Lily, and Vampire Diaries are safe bets
CW Fall Sched:
Monday:
8:00 – Gossip Girl
9:00 – One Tree Hill
Tuesday:
8:00 – 90210
9:00 – Melrose 2.0
Wednesday:
8:00 – ANTM
9:00 – Lily
Thursday:
8:00 – Smallville
9:00 – Supernatural
Friday:
8:00 – ANTM (encore)
9:00 – Vampire Diaries
…Body Politic, Privileged (mid-season?)
I don’t really understand how no Sundays can make that big a difference, didn’t they not have any programming on Sundays anyway? And with split seasons, isn’t there still a chance that shows can be put on at midseason?
I still have hopes for Reaper, it doesn’t seem like the CW has tons of other successful shows.
And I echo dwalker’s question: what does it take to get a show picked up by another network?
Someone needs to call the emergency room. Donna has hit her head and is loosing lucidity fast!
I watch Smallville fairly regularly, because I want to see how awful a train wreck the ending will be, and how much longer it has until its over. That is the only reason to watch the show for the last, oh, 3 years or so.
i dont understand reaper is up against idol,ncis,loser an a playoff game an its gets better numbers than almost everything on the cw plus no promotion bein gone for 10 months i guess nobody sees the big picture
Errr……
As Reaper is over the averages in the above numbers why is it a guaranteed cancel (Don’t they need a new showrunner IIRC?)
Slim chances for ‘Body Politic’…
Shame, looks like a good show. Great cast (for a CW show), excellent script (from what I have heard), maybe it’s too expensive.
The second ‘Supernatural’ is over, the CW should be put out of it’s misery.
Sorry for the rant. I still have a hard time dealing with them axing ‘Veronica Mars’. Especially considering what kind of ratings this hyped up crap shows like ‘Gossip Girl’ and ’90210′ have.
why body politic have slim chances?????
Veronica Mars was one of the lowest rated shows on television.
Yeah, I’m not getting this story… None of those shows mentioned air on Sundays anyway and it isn’t like they need to find a home for any of the shows they are currently “leasing” space to on Sundays anyway… Or is “Jericho” getting resurrected again?
Bottom line – how has this announcement that the CW abandoned Sunday changed anything? They haven’t been programming for Sunday for quite awhile now, save for some pre-primtime repeats.
I love the show. But Reaper returns? Not a chance in hell!
“I love the show. But Reaper returns? Not a chance in hell!”
I think there are other reasons Reaper isn’t going to be returning – poor performance isn’t one of them. Well, poor performance “for the CW” isn’t one of them. It isn’t that far behind their “huge hits” 90210 and Gossip Girl. Yes, it’s possible the built-in mini-audiences for Lily and Melrose Place can outperform Reaper. But, I doubt much else they throw out there will do better.
But, I don’t see why a similar 13 episode mid-season order would be so out of the question.
@ GEORGE 11
Because CW has given away Sunday nights, ‘Lily’ and ‘Melrose Place’ are locks… ‘Vampire diaries’ (with the Twilight frenzy) seems solid also, and I can’t imagine the CW picking ‘Body Politic’ before ‘beautiful life’.
@ Michael
‘Veronica Mars’ as a show was/is superior in every aspect (story, writing, especially acting) to ‘Gossip Girl’ and ’90210′… but, it wasn’t networks pet (no rolling stone cover and heavy promotion for VM) and it died. My point is – the CW didn’t care about the show, they probably thought it was to complicated for their targeted audience. Granted, Rob Thomas did everything he can in the 3. season to make the axing easier.
Just my 2 cents.