May 6: Renewal & Cancellation Prospects For Your Favorite Shows
I’ve broken each network’s data for scripted shows out into its own separate post to keep the discussions more on topic, find them at the links below.
CLICK THESE LINKS TO SEE EACH NETWORK’S SCRIPTED SHOWS:
NBC: Chuck, Medium, Law & Order Look Safe; Earl’sChances Just Got Hammered
UNSCRIPTED SHOWS FOR ALL NETWORKS
For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. Since we, and you, don’t care much about unscripted shows, and the Index isn’t all that good in predicting their future, I don’t worry about predictions, but here is the data for reference.
The Index now uses the 18-49 rating, which simply is the percentage of the US 18-49 TV adults population. (There are an estimated 132 million US adults 18-49 in TV households, so a 1.0 rating is equal to 1.32 million adults 18-49). Since we only get 18-49 demo ratings for each show on an overnight basis, that makes the values in the Renew/Cancel Index easier to compare with the overnight demo ratings results.
Update: Because of an error on my part, the season averages (and the calculated Indexes) for several of the networks in the table below were originally incorrect. They have been corrected.
|PROGRAM||Net||STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD)||Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating||Renew/ Cancel index|
|HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7P||FOX||1.0||2.67||0.37|
|IN HARM’S WAY||CW||0.3||0.79||0.38|
|GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD 830P||CBS||1.3||2.91||0.45|
|HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7:30P||FOX||1.2||2.67||0.45|
|AMERICA’S TOUGHEST JOBS||NBC||1.1||2.33||0.47|
|GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD||CBS||1.4||2.91||0.48|
|SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER||FOX||1.3||2.67||0.49|
|HOWIE DO IT 8:30||NBC||1.2||2.33||0.52|
|48 HOURS MYSTERY||CBS||1.6||2.91||0.55|
|DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI||NBC||1.3||2.33||0.56|
|HOWIE DO IT 8P||NBC||1.3||2.33||0.56|
|DON’T FORGET THE LYRICS||FOX||1.5||2.67||0.56|
|SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME||ABC||1.5||2.65||0.57|
|HOLE IN WALL THU-8P||FOX||1.7||2.67||0.64|
|13 – FEAR IS REAL||CW||0.5||0.79||0.64|
|HOMELAND SECURITY USA||ABC||1.7||2.65||0.64|
|MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD||CBS||1.9||2.91||0.65|
|AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK||FOX||1.8||2.67||0.67|
|HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P||FOX||2.0||2.67||0.75|
|FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2||NBC||1.9||2.33||0.82|
|AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS||ABC||2.2||2.65||0.83|
|EXTREME MAKEOVER:HM ED-7P||ABC||2.2||2.65||0.83|
|DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED||NBC||2.0||2.33||0.86|
|PRIMETIME:WHAT WOULD U DO||ABC||2.3||2.65||0.87|
|SUPERSTARS OF DANCE||NBC||2.2||2.33||0.95|
|SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL||ABC||2.7||2.65||1.02|
|AMAZING RACE 14||CBS||3.1||2.91||1.07|
|FOX NASCAR SPRINT CUP PST||FOX||2.9||2.67||1.08|
|AMAZING RACE 13||CBS||3.2||2.91||1.10|
|EXTREME MAKEOVER:HM ED-8P||ABC||3.3||2.65||1.25|
|FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3||NBC||3.2||2.33||1.38|
|FOX NASCAR SPRINT CUP||FOX||3.7||2.67||1.38|
|DANCING W/STARS RESULTS||ABC||3.7||2.65||1.40|
|BIGGEST LOSER 6||NBC||3.3||2.33||1.42|
|BIGGEST LOSER 7||NBC||3.7||2.33||1.59|
|DANCING WITH THE STARS||ABC||4.7||2.65||1.77|
|SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK||NBC||4.2||2.33||1.81|
|AMERICA’S TOP MODEL – 6||CW||1.8||0.79||2.29|
|AMERICA’S TOP MODEL-5||CW||1.9||0.79||2.42|
|NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL||NBC||6.5||2.33||2.80|
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.
All ratings are Live+SD.
We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.