Not that it surprised anyone at all, but Fox announced the full season renewal for Fringe this week.
With CBS, I'm sure Robert and I will be all over the map on our guesses of show renewal prospects, not so with Fox. There is absolutely no drama in their existing show renewal and cancellation announcements.
Certain to be canceled: Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles, Dollhouse & Sit Down, Shut Up.
Certain to be renewed: Bones, Family Guy, Lie To Me, House.
'Til Death has done terribly, and has been off Fox’s schedule since October, Sony Pictures has reportedly made Fox such a sweet deal for future episodes that Fox has bought another entire season, proving that at a low enough price that even a ratings black hole is worth suffering through.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES (FRI) | FOX | 1.25 | 2.67 | 0.47 | |
| DOLLHOUSE | FOX | 1.5 | 2.67 | 0.56 | |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 1.6 | 2.67 | 0.60 | canceled |
| SIT DOWN SHUT UP | FOX | 1.7 | 2.67 | 0.64 | |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 1.8 | 2.67 | 0.67 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 2.1 | 2.67 | 0.79 | final season |
| American Dad | FOX | 2.7 | 2.67 | 1.01 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 2.8 | 2.67 | 1.05 | final season* |
| Bones | FOX | 2.9 | 2.67 | 1.08 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 3.1 | 2.67 | 1.16 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 3.5 | 2.67 | 1.31 | |
| Lie To Me | FOX | 3.5 | 2.67 | 1.31 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 3.6 | 2.67 | 1.35 | |
| 24 | FOX | 3.7 | 2.67 | 1.38 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 4.7 | 2.67 | 1.76 |
-
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
Note that the Fox average used above is its final Season to Date average prior to American Idol (see below).
Notes:
*King of the Hill: Fox declined to renew King of the Hill, but has enough new episodes so that they will be airing well into 2009, through early fall by some reports.
Prison Break is in its final season.
Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles: The numbers above are for only its Friday airings that began on February 13, 2009. FYI, It's 13 episode 18-49 average on Monday this season was 2.726 million (which is an average 18-49 rating of 2.1).
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
I wonder when and how Fox is going to air ‘Til Death. Every summer Sunday at 7:00 and 7:30?
demonhog, I’ve written it before: ‘Til Death Independence Day Marathon!
There will only be drama if Fox renews Dollhouse. That won’t happen.
Can’t wait to see FOX’s front up presentation
I hope Sit down Shut Up stays around – better than Seth’s stuff
To the TSCC fan(s) who come here to be ridiculed and/or depressed, this might make you a little happier: Summer Glau (Cameron) has been approached by the producers of the upcoming Terminator movies (5 and 6) about possibly appearing in those movies. (This comes straight from an interview of Summer at FedCon in Germany)
Yes, I’ve read that interview with Summer. Equally important for her fans, she’s up for a new movie which she really wants to do and is merely waiting for TSCC cancellation to be confirmed before accepting.
Nobody needs to worry about Summer being out of work. She’s really popular and has been working pretty steady for years.
Maybe Fox could do a one off Special to end both series….
Terminator (SG) v The Dolls
I can see the Press Release now…..
“In an unprecedented double Series Finale watch the excitement as Summer Glau discovers that The Dollhouse is a secret organisation developed by Skynet to test implant technology into Human Terminators. Watch the exciting conclusion as the invades the Dollhouse and fights with the Dolls to the death. PG 9pm EC and C”
In fairness, though I’ve enjoyed both shows, neither has lived up to it’s potential or expectation so far IMHO.
@Richard Steven Hack
“Nobody needs to worry about Summer being out of work. ”
Does anyone ever? When they cancel a show that I like I worry for ME – not them.
I’m still optimistic for Terminator’s renewal. I just wish I could give a valid or positive reason as to why.
Question is will Kiefer Sutherland be in jail again and interfere with Season 8?
CraigUK, heh, Cameron would eat all the Dolls for breakfast, then ask John for pancakes (HER recipe, not Sarah’s!) LOL
Kermode: I worry about Summer being out of work because then I won’t see her as often. So yeah, I worry for ME, not her.
She spent the last week or two I guess in Europe with her two sisters on a vacation since she had to attend the Starfury convention in England a week or two ago and FedCon in Germany this past weekend. Even though she had a bad cold, she showed up for FedCon anyway, still looking chipper as any of the Dollhouse Dolls. A real living Doll as it were.
No surrender TSCC fans! If we give up, Skynet and TvByTheNumbers win!
I wish King of the Hill was coming back. That’s the only show I watch on Fox. Family Guy has been going downhill since season 3, and isn’t even that funny anymore.
OMG, Summer in T5/T6????!!! YES!!!!!!!
Now THAT’s what I’m talkin’ about!!!
(and for those who know who I am, I give you my greetings. Yeah, I still come here every so often for possible GOOD news like this.
)
Eliza just twittered that Dollhouse HAS NOT been cancelled.
Ted, that doesn’t mean it has even a sliver of a chance at renewal. It’s gone.
Ted, poor Brooke Shields kept up the farce that Lipstick Jungle wasn’t dead for so long it became an embarrassment.
Ted’s account isn’t all that accurate. Several days ago Eliza did tweet the truth (that they haven’t been told the show is canceled yet). But today, after getting off the phone with Whedon her message is the desperate-ish plea:
Just hung up w/Joss-man listen up:if u want/need/desire more WheDush~Dollhouse finale 2morrow night 9p FOX. Tell your f*!in friends. xo
I don’t see her going all Brooke Shields on us.
I didn’t mean to imply Eliza was going Brooke Shields on us. (For her sake, I hope not.) Simply that messages from show actors cannot be relied upon as fact.