ABC's advertising upfront meeting is Tuesday, May 19 (here is the rest of the upfront schedule). Their new fall schedule will be announced no later than that date, so this is the last installment of the ABC Renew/Cancel Index before decision time.
Without further ado, here are our final predictions of the likelihood of renewal for all the ABC scripted shows that still hang in the balance. I'd bet that not everyone agrees with us. Feel free to post your guesses in the comments.
| Program | Bill | Robert |
| CASTLE | 80% | 76% |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | 80% | 75% |
| SURVIVING SUBURBIA | 65% | 75% |
| BETTER OFF TED | 15% | 8% |
| CUPID | 10% | 0% |
| THE UNUSUALS | 5% | 0% |
| IN THE MOTHERHOOD | 0% | 0% |
| SCRUBS | ?* | 50% |
* I wasn't even going to put Scrubs in the list, because reports all along had been that it was in its final season. Now we hear, unconfirmed, that ABC is bringing it back. Your guess is as good as mine.
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This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN THE MOTHERHOOD | ABC | 1.6 | 2.65 | 0.60 | |
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P | ABC | 1.7 | 2.65 | 0.64 | final season |
| CUPID | ABC | 1.7 | 2.65 | 0.64 | |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 1.7 | 2.65 | 0.64 | canceled |
| THE UNUSUALS | ABC | 1.7 | 2.65 | 0.64 | |
| BETTER OFF TED | ABC | 1.8 | 2.65 | 0.68 | |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 1.8 | 2.65 | 0.68 | canceled |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 1.9 | 2.65 | 0.72 | canceled |
| SCRUBS-WED 8PM | ABC | 1.9 | 2.65 | 0.72 | final season? |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2.2 | 2.65 | 0.83 | final season |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 2.2 | 2.65 | 0.83 | canceled |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 2.3 | 2.65 | 0.87 | |
| CASTLE | ABC | 2.4 | 2.65 | 0.91 | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 2.4 | 2.65 | 0.91 | |
| SURVIVING SUBURBIA | ABC | 2.6 | 2.65 | 0.98 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 2.9 | 2.65 | 1.10 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 3.4 | 2.65 | 1.28 | |
| LOST | ABC | 4.2 | 2.65 | 1.59 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 4.7 | 2.65 | 1.77 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 5.2 | 2.65 | 1.96 |
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Notes:
To remove clutter from the table, I have included only the day/timeslot with the most airings for According to Jim and Scrubs.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
I think Samantha Who is toast. When they pulled it from the schedule I viewed that as a bad sign. I know they have 7 Episodes ready to go, but they can write them off sometime this summer. And I think the show deserves to be canceled the way it bombed without a Dancing With the Stars lead in.
sam Who and Castle i am would like to see back
CASTLE 75%
SAMANTHA WHO? 60%
SURVIVING SUBURBIA 30% (the new ‘Crumbs’, if anyone remembers that show, also got good ratings after ‘Dancing’)
BETTER OFF TED 88% (all indicates the high-brass love it, probably a limited 2nd season)
CUPID 3%
THE UNUSUALS 10%
IN THE MOTHERHOOD 0%
SCRUBS 65%
With 7 episodes in the can for both Sam Who and Better Off Ted i really wouldnt be surprised if ABC ordered 6 more episodes of each to get to 13 try it out and if they fail they only really spent money on 6 episodes not a full 13
Surviving Suburbia wont be back. ABC is just using it to have a comedy on their network, and treating it like crap. Too bad, because I liked it.
Tommy, every show that gets removed from behind DWTS bombs. The facts are that SW? held the DWTS lead-in better than any other show they’ve put there. If they bring it back, which I think is probable, I bet it goes back behind DWTS in the fall. If not there, probably in a comedy block with Cougar Town and whatever other new sitcoms ABC decides to greenlight.
I hope Castle gets renewed!!
I can see an argument for bringing Samantha Who back and pairing it with DWTS again. It did well when it aired in that spot, so why not try it again? It doesn’t matter if it can’t stand on its own if it does alright behind that show.
I really wouldn’t be surprised to see Scrubs come back. It has to be a goldmine for ABC in syndication.
CASTLE is currently in renewal talks. It’s highly likely to get renewed. SCRUBS is also in renewal talks and I think the “reboot,” plan is what they’re talking about there.
I think ABC will use Dancing With the Stars to launch a new Comedy. ABC doesn’t know how to treat comedies so the idea of a real comedy block as good as one sounds will likely not happen.
CASTLE 90%
SAMANTHA WHO? 10%
SURVIVING SUBURBIA 80%
BETTER OFF TED 0%
CUPID 0%
THE UNUSUALS 40%
IN THE MOTHERHOOD 0%
SCRUBS 65%
Castle is a sure bet to return especially after last night’s performance but it needs to be programmed right not going against CBS procedurals next season. Same thing with The Unusuals as it never had a chance from day one going against NY and L&O, I wonder if they put it in a different slot would the numbers improve?
Surviving Suburbia is a sure bet to return as long as it does a solid job during the summer on Wednesdays after Wipeout and The Goode Family. It has syndication value written all over it.
Samantha Who? is a sure goner and after In the Motherhood got yanked along with it that pretty much sealed its fate.
Scrubs ended last week and ABC should keep things that way. It does horribly in syndication and even got yanked off of TV Land for the low ratings but knowing them they’ll find a way to renew the dead low-rated sitcom.
Apparently ABC is strongly considering/leaning toward renewing Better Off Ted. If so, they deserve tons of credit for giving a low-rated but critically acclaimed gem a second chance. I’m sure it won’t work out in the end as these things rarely do but, again, the effort is appreciated.
Here’s hoping the early rumors pan out!
Nick C, just out of curiosity, where do you get your information from? (Not doubting, just wondering).
Castle fans will kill me for saying this (don’t, I’m a fan too), but if it gets picked up, I hope it’s only for 13 episodes. I’m not saying it should be cancelled after that. Just that I think American tv networks should start following the British tv model and only make a tv season 13 episodes long. That way the story gets told without filler episodes being added in, and then if the show isn’t performing well, the network can bring in another show at midseason without cancelling it and let it have another 13-episode season next year.
Castle is entertaining enough but really the only great thing about it right now is the cast and the chemistry between the characters and the humor. The mysteries themselves range from pretty interesting to downright dull and predictable. From what I’ve seen of the show so far, it does NOT do the serious episodes well – the kidnapping episode, the episode of the murdered prep school kid. It really pops when the mystery isn’t so dark and the B-plot is more fun (the episode where Castle ex came back). They need to make more of those kinds of episodes, and I think it’ll be tougher to keep the mysteries fresh if they have to churn out 22 episodes a year instead of 13.
According to Nathan Fillion, Friday seems to be the day for the “Official” decision on Castle.
Shely, while it’s a good idea in theory that if you have shorter seasons you end up the less “duds”, I think the percentages probably work out the same. Stories that seem great on paper sometimes just don’t translate well once they are filmed. So, out of 22 episodes you might 4 duds and out of 11 you might have 2…
Well, it’s not just because of the percentage of good v. dud episodes that I support shorter seasons. I just think it makes more sense anyway; that what British shows do and it works out pretty well for them.
Castle
—85% Recent improvements and a slew of other hour long failures almost ensure a 13 ep pick up.
Samantha Who?
—75% My feeling is that they will pick this up because they seem to like it, and they don’t have anything better.
Better Off Ted
—55% This makes the least sense, but it got numbers close to Scrubs, and they *seemed* to want that one back with cast departures, so…
Surviving Suburbia
—35% Decent ratings, but they don’t seem to be behind it. Could they realize its another ATJ? They finally cut the cord with that one, so I doubt they want to relive a situation like that again so soon.
The Unusuals
—0% ABC may want a cop drama as many suggest… but this ain’t it.
Cupid
—0% Retention doesn’t help when your demo is mid 1s… or when you can brag about beating The Unusuals retention.
In The Motherhood
—0% Nope.
Castle – 100%
True Beauty – 99%
Better Off Ted – 80%
Scrubs – 60% (Note to ABC. The show is OVER. LET IT GO.)
Samantha Who? – 35%
Surviving Suburbia – 25%
The Unusuals – 1%
Cupid – 0%
In the Motherhood – 0%
Homeland Security USA – 0%
According to Jim – 0% (finally)
“Castle” and “True Beauty” are no-brainer renewals. ABC launched no hits this season. These two were the closest things to hits they did launch. I guess that just shows that Monday 10:00 is a good time slot for them.
“Better Off Ted” pleased the “Scrubs” audience and scored all the same demos with the same appeal to advertisers. ABC has gone so many years without a funny comedy. It’s time to fix that. They’re not better off without Ted.
“Scrubs”… ugh. Well, whatever. As long as “Ted” comes back with it.
“Samantha Who?” is the network’s second-best comedy (which is saying little), but I’ve heard they’re paying through the nose for it. Treating it as badly as they did this season (20 episodes but 13 aired, with a nearly 4 month hiatus in the middle of the season) doesn’t exactly send me the message that they’re looking to bring it back. Maybe if McPherson develops amnesia or something.
“Surviving Suburbia” is complete trash. It’s my understanding that ABC got it for a bargain basement price, but you get what you pay for. As noted in the comedies already, ABC does seem to agree with us that it’s complete trash. I thought it would get a 13-episode pickup a month ago. I don’t now.
“Cupid” I don’t think is a bad show for its particular genre (rom com), but ABC clearly cancelled it before it premiered. (And it’s bombed.)
“The Unusuals” is a bad show for any genre. It took me 4 sittings to make it through 1 episode. I don’t think there is one single thing in this show that works. (And it’s bombed.)
“In the Motherhood”… let’s just say no-talent writing producers Jennifer Konner and Alexandra Rushfield and no-talent non-writing producer Stu Bloomberg should all send personal notes of apology to David Lang for screwing up his web series this badly. And then all of them should have their careers aborted. A stillborn waste of airtime.
“Homeland Security USA” was an OK show but didn’t perform well (obviously, since it was “American Idol” cannon fodder). One season is sufficient.
“According to Jim” is… finally done.
I think it would be amusing if Bill and Robert were running ABC. They would of course renew “Surviving Suburbia” and cancel “Better Off Ted” — and then every critic in the country would have a field day with them.
Riff, I have to agree with your 99% rating for True Beauty.
My guess is another limited run behind The Bachelor inbetween the fall and spring DWTS.
Why mess with success?