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ABC Oddsmakers: Renewal Chances For Castle, Cupid, Ted, Samantha...

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May 12th, 2009

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ABC's advertising upfront meeting is Tuesday, May 19 (here is the rest of the upfront schedule). Their new fall schedule will be announced no later than that date, so this is the last installment of the ABC Renew/Cancel Index before decision time.

Without further ado, here are our final predictions of the likelihood of renewal for all the ABC scripted shows that still hang in the balance. I'd bet that not everyone agrees with us. Feel free to post your guesses in the comments.


Program Bill Robert
Castle 80% 76%
SAMANTHA WHO? 80% 75%
SURVIVING SUBURBIA 65% 75%
BETTER OFF TED 15% 8%
CUPID 10% 0%
THE UNUSUALS 5% 0%
IN THE MOTHERHOOD 0% 0%
SCRUBS ?* 50%

* I wasn't even going to put Scrubs in the list, because reports all along had been that it was in its final season. Now we hear, unconfirmed, that ABC is bringing it back. Your guess is as good as mine.
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This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:

Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.


PROGRAM Net  STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD)  Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating Renew/ Cancel index Status
IN THE MOTHERHOOD ABC 1.6 2.65 0.60  
ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P ABC 1.7 2.65 0.64 final season
CUPID ABC 1.7 2.65 0.64  
ELI STONE ABC 1.7 2.65 0.64 canceled
THE UNUSUALS ABC 1.7 2.65 0.64  
BETTER OFF TED ABC 1.8 2.65 0.68  
PUSHING DAISIES ABC 1.8 2.65 0.68 canceled
DIRTY SEXY MONEY ABC 1.9 2.65 0.72 canceled
SCRUBS-WED 8PM ABC 1.9 2.65 0.72 final season?
BOSTON LEGAL ABC 2.2 2.65 0.83 final season
LIFE ON MARS ABC 2.2 2.65 0.83 canceled
UGLY BETTY ABC 2.3 2.65 0.87  
Castle ABC 2.4 2.65 0.91  
SAMANTHA WHO? ABC 2.4 2.65 0.91  
SURVIVING SUBURBIA ABC 2.6 2.65 0.98  
Private Practice ABC 2.9 2.65 1.10  
BROTHERS & SISTERS ABC 3.4 2.65 1.28  
LOST ABC 4.2 2.65 1.59  
GREY'S ANATOMY ABC 4.7 2.65 1.77  
Desperate Housewives ABC 5.2 2.65 1.96  

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Notes:

To remove clutter from the table, I have included only the day/timeslot with the most airings for According to Jim and Scrubs.

The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.

How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.

Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.

 
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