CBS's advertising upfront meeting is Wednesday, May 20 (here is the rest of the upfront schedule). Their new fall schedule will be announced no later than that date, so instead of trying to shoehorn in another Renew/Cancel Index post next Tuesday this is the last installment of the CBS Renew/Cancel Index before decision time.
Without further ado, here are our final predictions of the likelihood of renewal for all the CBS scripted shows that still hang in the balance. I'd bet that not everyone agrees with us. Feel free to post your guesses in the comments.
| Program | Bill | Robert |
| Criminal Minds | 100% | 100% |
| CSI | 100% | 100% |
| CSI: MIAMI | 100% | 100% |
| CSI: NY | 100% | 100% |
| GHOST WHISPERER | 100% | 100% |
| How I Met Your Mother | 100% | 100% |
| NCIS | 100% | 100% |
| Rules of Engagement | 100% | 100% |
| THE Mentalist | 100% | 100% |
| NUMB3RS | 95% | 90% |
| OLD CHRISTINE | 90%* | 90%* |
| FLASHPOINT | 80% | 75%** |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | 60% | 65% |
| COLD CASE | 40% | 33% |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | 35% | 20% |
| GARY UNMARRIED | 25% | 20% |
| THE UNIT | 5% | 10% |
| WORST WEEK | 5% | 10% |
| HARPER'S ISLAND | 0% | 0% |
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*on CBS, 100% on CBS or ABC.
** somewhere on the schedule, 49% on Fall Fridays.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| THE EX-LIST | CBS | 1.9 | 2.90 | 0.65 | canceled |
| FLASHPOINT | CBS | 1.9 | 2.90 | 0.65 | |
| OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2.0 | 2.90 | 0.69 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 2.1 | 2.90 | 0.72 | |
| NUMB3RS | CBS | 2.1 | 2.90 | 0.72 | |
| HARPER'S ISLAND | CBS | 2.2 | 2.90 | 0.76 | |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 2.3 | 2.90 | 0.79 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER | CBS | 2.4 | 2.90 | 0.83 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 2.6 | 2.90 | 0.90 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 2.7 | 2.90 | 0.93 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 2.8 | 2.90 | 0.96 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 2.9 | 2.90 | 1.00 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 3.2 | 2.90 | 1.10 | |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 3.4 | 2.90 | 1.17 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 3.4 | 2.90 | 1.17 | |
| Big Bang Theory, THE | CBS | 3.5 | 2.90 | 1.21 | |
| Mentalist, THE | CBS | 3.5 | 2.90 | 1.21 | |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 3.6 | 2.90 | 1.24 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 3.7 | 2.90 | 1.27 | |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | 3.9 | 2.90 | 1.34 | |
| CSI | CBS | 4.6 | 2.90 | 1.59 | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 4.7 | 2.90 | 1.62 |
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Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Robert, I think the chances of Flashpoint being on in the fall is a lot less than 49% since as a Canadian production it only has 13 episodes per season and wouldn’t normally be ready for fall.
But 49% that it’s announced at upfronts as being on the midseason schedule, rather than summer, sounds about right.
I really hope Cold Case has another season. And I am surprised to see Eleventh Hour that low (even though I don’t watch it).
I liked Worst Week. It’s too bad they don’t bring it back with Old Christine.
I hope both gentlemen are wrong about EH. But it would not surprise me. For whatever reason, CBS did not seem to want this show. That is too bad. I basically will go back to watching tv once a week. On Friday when I watch Numbers. I am quite feed up with never ending violence or goofy plots.
Julia captured my intent better. I was trying to differentiate between the Sept-May season and summer.
I’m confused as to why Eleventh Hour’s chances of renewal are quite a bit less than Without a Trace and Cold Case when it had slightly better numbers for the almighty 18-49 age group and it had comparable or slightly better overall ratings. I also thought that WAT and CC were more expensive to produce than EH because they have larger regular casts and CBS is supposedly trying to cut costs. Please help as I really don’t understand the way these networks think (assuming they do think).
Hmm. I’d cancel everything below a 3.0 except for Friday shows. But I don’t actually watch anything on CBS (fitting, given that I’m 18-34).
dvikib, I can’t speak for Robert, but I put EH’s chances below WAT and CC for two reasons. (1) It followed CSI, maybe the best timeslot on CBS for a drama, and its numbers were still only a bit better than WAT and CC’s, (2) EH is a freshman show, and longevity is an advantage for WAT and CC.
Without A Trace
—85% With SVU leaving, this will have a field day at 10pm.
Old Christine
—85% Stronger than Gary, and with veteran status.
Cold Case
—45% Not really a strong player on Sundays, and I think that CBS is going to really target that night in Fall.
Eleventh Hour
—30% Ending so early was not a vote of confidence in my opinion. I think CBS believes they can do better post CSI.
Gary Unmarried
—15% Weakest of the sitcoms still running new episodes.
The Unit
—10% Would potentially work with Flashpoint. That is not a reason to keep it.
Worst Week
—0% Doesn’t fit with any other comedies, has been done since March, ratings were poor given lead-in, often performed worse than a repeat of Gary Unmarried in the slot, etc.
Harper’s Island
—0% Despite its huge 10% surge in demo in its new Saturday 9pm slot versus its old Saturday 8pm slot, I think its safe to say this one is done.
Criminal Minds, CSI X3, Ghost Whisperer, NCIS, Mentalist, Flashpoint, Numb3rs, Rules Of Engagement, and Mother are all 100%
I would be really happy if each network could pick ONE evening to do all their “reality” shows or game shows. Then I’d know which night to just go and get hammered. Or even better, cancel all the “reality” shows… damn their annoying.
BTW, CBS should stand for Crime-Based Series… CSI (1,2 & 3), The Mentalist, Without a Trace, Cold Case, Numb3rs, Criminal Minds, NCIS, Flashpoint… Mix it up a bit!
Cold Case – I don’t watch it, but I think they’d probably let them finish their 7th season. Then again, if they want clean the Crime-solving stables, they have enough for syndication.
Without a Trace – Just completed 7th season, usually time for actors to readjust/re-sign contracts… production cost will most likely go up, I could see this easily getting canned to make room in the budget or for new shows. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a great show.
The Unit – No other show on the other networks like it, keeper.
CBS renewed “Breast Whisperer” a few days ago, I am told.
CRIMINAL MINDS – 100% (slam dunk)
CSI – 100% (slam dunk… though might not be next year)
CSI: MIAMI – 100% (the network’s best unintentional comedy)
CSI: NY – 100% (slam dunk)
NCIS – 100% (slam dunk — this and the spinoff)
THE MENTALIST – 100% (oh come on)
NUMB3RS – 90% (expensive but worth it)
FLASHPOINT – 85% (not expensive and worth it)
HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER – 85% (great demos with the college stoner crowd who think Andy Samberg is ZOMGHEELARIUS!!!!1, but you never know — rumors are that Les Moonves can’t stand it and the license fees of 20th shows go through the roof from Season 4 to Season 5. Would not surprise me in the least if they pull a “Yes, Dear” on it and make them beg for a measly 13 episodes while sticking a new show in its place.)
RULES OF ENGAGEMENT 80% (the 20% is because somebody at CBS clearly hates the show)
WITHOUT A TRACE – 75% (should come back – will come down to money)
COLD CASE – 75% (should come back – will come down to money)
GARY UNMARRIED – 50% and dropping every day (starting to look like Renowned Showkiller Paula Marshall will kill again)
OLD CHRISTINE – 30% on CBS, 60% on ABC, 0% if Riff ran both networks
ELEVENTH HOUR – 10% (a costly misfire that CBS obviously thought was a costly misfire)
THE UNIT – 5% (by all accounts, this show will be AWOL when CBS announces their 2010 sched)
WORST HALF HOUR – 0% (effectively cancelled back in January)
HARPER’S ISLAND – 0% (an insult to the slasher genre)
MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD – 0% (sorry, grandpas, you were just too old)
GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD – 0% (sat on the shelf for 2 years before it aired)
As always, CBS will penny pinch while thinking they can go younger, and a couple of good performers will pay the price. It’s unfortunate if “Old Christine” isn’t the show to pay. How many chances does that need?
NUMB3RS is in negotiation I’d say we’ll hear something this week.
Would Fox take The Unit since they produce it?
It’d work great paired with 24!
Having given up on Without A Trace coming back and losing out to Cold Case Bill and Robert have given me renewed hope .
However, I am confused. What about all the strong “rumours” in the past week more or less saying that Cold Case had made it? I think they seemed authentic.
I really hope CBS have the intelligence to keep Without a Trace. It still gets good ratings and is the only show I tune into on a weekly basis.
Keep the original 5 cast members, get rid of Roselyn Sanchez (last in – first out is only fair) and any other surplus recurring characters (e.g. Adam Kaufman) who take screentime from the core cast and straight away there’s a reduction in costs.
Riff Rafferty, I couldn’t agree more with you on this statement “It’s unfortunate if “Old Christine” isn’t the show to pay. How many chances does that need?”
This abysmal show has been given more opportunities when it should have been cancelled long ago.
Bill and Robert,
Have you suddenly become retentionistas with Eleventh Hour?
I think Eleventh Hour has a better chance to improve its ratings next season than WaT or CC or even CSI. Those shows won’t get any better, besides, EH is less expensive to produce. I don’t think the fact that EH had only 18 episodes is a sign that CBS didn’t want it or like it. If they hadn’t liked it, they wouldn’t have ordered 5 more episodes and if they didn’t like its results they would’ve easily sent it to another time slot to ‘kill’ it or have an excuse to cancel it.
But they didn’t.
How do you know how that EH is less expensive? CBS was in a bidding war for it last year that reportedly got quite high.