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CBS Oddsmakers: Renewal Chances For Christine, Cold Case, Gary, The Unit...

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May 12th, 2009

CBS's advertising upfront meeting is Wednesday, May 20 (here is the rest of the upfront schedule). Their new fall schedule will be announced no later than that date, so instead of trying to shoehorn in another Renew/Cancel Index post next Tuesday this is the last installment of the CBS Renew/Cancel Index before decision time.

Without further ado, here are our final predictions of the likelihood of renewal for all the CBS scripted shows that still hang in the balance. I'd bet that not everyone agrees with us. Feel free to post your guesses in the comments.


Program Bill Robert
Criminal Minds 100% 100%
CSI 100% 100%
CSI: MIAMI 100% 100%
CSI: NY 100% 100%
GHOST WHISPERER 100% 100%
How I Met Your Mother 100% 100%
NCIS 100% 100%
Rules of Engagement 100% 100%
THE Mentalist 100% 100%
NUMB3RS 95% 90%
OLD CHRISTINE 90%* 90%*
FLASHPOINT 80% 75%**
WITHOUT A TRACE 60% 65%
COLD CASE 40% 33%
ELEVENTH HOUR 35% 20%
GARY UNMARRIED 25% 20%
THE UNIT 5% 10%
WORST WEEK 5% 10%
HARPER'S ISLAND 0% 0%

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*on CBS, 100% on CBS or ABC.

** somewhere on the schedule, 49% on Fall Fridays. 

This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects.  Here are the others:

Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.


PROGRAM Net  STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD)  Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating Renew/ Cancel index Status
THE EX-LIST CBS 1.9 2.90 0.65 canceled
FLASHPOINT CBS 1.9 2.90 0.65  
OLD CHRISTINE CBS 2.0 2.90 0.69  
GARY UNMARRIED CBS 2.1 2.90 0.72  
NUMB3RS CBS 2.1 2.90 0.72  
HARPER'S ISLAND CBS 2.2 2.90 0.76  
THE UNIT CBS 2.3 2.90 0.79  
GHOST WHISPERER CBS 2.4 2.90 0.83  
COLD CASE CBS 2.6 2.90 0.90  
WITHOUT A TRACE CBS 2.7 2.90 0.93  
ELEVENTH HOUR CBS 2.8 2.90 0.96  
WORST WEEK CBS 2.9 2.90 1.00  
CSI: NY CBS 3.2 2.90 1.10  
Criminal Minds CBS 3.4 2.90 1.17  
NCIS CBS 3.4 2.90 1.17  
Big Bang Theory, THE CBS 3.5 2.90 1.21  
Mentalist, THE CBS 3.5 2.90 1.21  
How I Met Your Mother CBS 3.6 2.90 1.24  
CSI: MIAMI CBS 3.7 2.90 1.27  
Rules of Engagement CBS 3.9 2.90 1.34  
CSI CBS 4.6 2.90 1.59  
Two and a Half Men CBS 4.7 2.90 1.62  

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Notes:

Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. 

The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.

How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.

Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.

 
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