The CW's advertising upfront meeting is Thursday, May 21 (here is the rest of the upfront schedule). Their new fall schedule will be announced no later than that date, so instead of trying to shoehorn in another Renew/Cancel Index post next week this is the last installment of the CW Renew/Cancel Index before decision time.
Without further ado, here are our final predictions of the likelihood of renewal for all the CW scripted shows that still hang in the balance. I'd bet that not everyone agrees with us. Feel free to post your guesses in the comments.
| Program | Bill | Robert |
| THE GAME | 5% | 3% |
| PRIVILEGED | 0% | 1% |
| REAPER | 0% | 0% |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS | 0% | 0% |
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This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY | CW | 0.2 | 0.79 | 0.25 | canceled |
| VALENTINE | CW | 0.3 | 0.79 | 0.38 | canceled |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS | CW | 0.6 | 0.79 | 0.76 | |
| THE GAME | CW | 0.7 | 0.79 | 0.89 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 0.7 | 0.79 | 0.89 | |
| REAPER | CW | 0.9 | 0.79 | 1.14 | |
| 90210 | CW | 1.1 | 0.79 | 1.40 | |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 1.1 | 0.79 | 1.40 | |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 1.1 | 0.79 | 1.40 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1.2 | 0.79 | 1.52 | |
| Smallville | CW | 1.4 | 0.79 | 1.78 |
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Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
I find it odd that you have The Game’s chances higher than Privileged, even though there’s been a bunch of talk lately that Privileged has a good chance of returning. I know the ratings say otherwise, but being Dawn Ostroff and the CW I think these rumors are probably fairly accurate. She dumped their highest rated show because it “didn’t fit the brand.” Who says she wouldn’t renew a low rated one that does fit?
Josh, I went 5% on The Game on the tiny chance its 1 hour dramedy transformation that was pitched somehow works. Sort of like betting 00 on the roulette wheel.
If you’ve been reading the site for awhile, you know that I consider all that Privileged renewal talk complete BS.
I wonder why so many people in the media got on a Privileged renewal kick recently. Its numbers were terrible in the fall, back when the CW was doing a lot better than it was now. Why would they want to bring it back when, by all accounts, they have a great pilot crop. I could see if it was dirt cheap, but with how pitiful the network is now, you’d think it’d be wiser to invest a little money in something new that might have a better chance at garnering a wider audience. I doubt Privileged would fare much better if it returned.
Is it true that BET already put an offer out there for The Game?
It’s going to be PRIVILEGED or BODY POLITIC.
Privileged – 70% (their only show with a shot – which will probably be, at best, 13 episodes held in reserve)
The Game – 25%
Everybody Hates Chris – 25% (should be 100% but isn’t because The CW is run by people who are functionally-retarded)
Reaper – 0% (Grim Reaper has claimed it)
Stylista – 0%
13: Fear Is Real – 0%
The CW Seeing Their 7th Birthday – 0%
When all is said and done, I’m sure Ms. Ostroff will have succeeded into turning this cess pool into “The Pretty White Kids with Problems” Network. No ethnic minorities or shows with appeal for guys need apply.
i hope none of them wont pick up[although i ma fan of privileged & thr game] to give a better chance for body politic!!!!!!
I want more REAPER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
how is reaper dead if its doing better than 902… whatever the rest of that number is.
This message-board talk of Body Politic is about the funniest, most absurd, obvious campaign of series staffers and/or Veronica Mars nutjobs I’ve ever seen. What could possibly make you believe that 12-year-old girls would watch a show about politics?
The new set of shows sound promising…especially the model drama being teamed up with America’s Next Top Model. And the vampire show…
I prefer Body Politic more than Privileged….
Unfortunately, Chris Rock has stated a couple of weeks ago that this will be the final season of “Everybody Hates Chris”. So I guess that chance of renewal should be 0% by default. The Game is still in limbo so we can only hope for the best.
Bill, I agree with your 5% on The Game and also with Rob’s 1% on Privileged. I hope The CW turns The Game into an hour dramedy for 1 more season however the chances are low. Also I would always say 0% for Privileged, but like my recent thought on Dollhouse, with the report of the summer reruns, Privileged has a slight chance to come back, maybe for midseason. If anyone watched Chris’s finale, you would agree that the series is done after 4 seasons and 88 episodes (the end also confirmed by Chris Rock), and Reaper just has no chance whatsoever, unfortunately
PRIVILEGED 40% (Who can predict what Ostroff will do? Surely no one rational. Possibly used as repeat filler.)
THE GAME 5% (Only if converted to an hour long dramedy.)
REAPER 0%
EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS 0%
I really want Reaper to get another season. Smallville and Reaper are the only shows that I watch in this network.
TV Guide is reporting that there’s a very good chance of Privileged returning and ending up on Fridays in the fall.
As much as I love you two, you’re going to have some egg on your face if this does indeed happen as much as you’ve harped on the fact that there was no way that show was returning.
Shawn wrote, “Unfortunately, Chris Rock has stated a couple of weeks ago that this will be the final season of “Everybody Hates Chris””
What he actually said was, “It might not be a bad way to go.” Did Rock go into this season expecting it to be the last? Of course not. Has he gotten the memo that Dawn of the Dead Network wants to ditch it so she can fill the time slot with yet another vapid, unwatchable tween drama that has zero interest to anyone but 12-year-old girls (and 50-year-old executives with the mentality of them)? I think it’s safe to say he has.
And, Tom, I’ve found the best way to predict what she will do is to predict what makes sense. She will then do the opposite.
You might have to remove the Sunday shows from the average. They don’t belong to the CW and I doubt that they will have any bearing on the other shows being cancelled. That was it might make it more palatable the over 0.25 point lead that Reaper has over their average and still cancellation.
Funny thing is, the CW execs are still teasing affiliates that Everybody Hates Chris could still return at midseason. Exasperating.
Nice, so if Supernatural and Smallville are gone by the end of next season and One Tree Hill it’s not going to last forever either, then what will be the future for the CW? Gossip Girl, 90210?. Please..