CW Oddsmakers: Renewal Chances For Reaper, The Game, Chris, Privileged

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May 12th, 2009

The CW's advertising upfront meeting is Thursday, May 21 (here is the rest of the upfront schedule). Their new fall schedule will be announced no later than that date, so instead of trying to shoehorn in another Renew/Cancel Index post next week this is the last installment of the CW Renew/Cancel Index before decision time.

Without further ado, here are our final predictions of the likelihood of renewal for all the CW scripted shows that still hang in the balance. I'd bet that not everyone agrees with us. Feel free to post your guesses in the comments.

Program Bill Robert
THE GAME 5% 3%
REAPER 0% 0%

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects.  Here are the others:

Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.

PROGRAM Net  STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD)  Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating Renew/ Cancel index Status
EASY MONEY CW 0.2 0.79 0.25 canceled
VALENTINE CW 0.3 0.79 0.38 canceled
THE GAME CW 0.7 0.79 0.89  
PRIVILEGED CW 0.7 0.79 0.89  
REAPER CW 0.9 0.79 1.14  
90210 CW 1.1 0.79 1.40  
Gossip Girl CW 1.1 0.79 1.40  
One Tree Hill CW 1.1 0.79 1.40  
Supernatural CW 1.2 0.79 1.52  
Smallville CW 1.4 0.79 1.78  



Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.

The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.

How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.

Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.

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