Fox's advertising upfront meeting is Monday, May 18 (here is the rest of the upfront schedule). Their new fall schedule will be announced no later than that date, so this is the last installment of the Fox Renew/Cancel Index before decision time.
Without further ado, here are our final predictions of the likelihood of renewal for all the Fox scripted shows that still hang in the balance. I'd bet that not everyone agrees with us. Feel free to post your guesses in the comments.
So much for timing, while preparing this post the Hollywood Reporter is out with the fact that Fox has renewed Lie To Me. Take my word for it, Robert and I both had it at 95%.
Update: Ok, I should have gone 100% for Bones, but then what would you have had to nitpick about? 
| Program | Bill | Robert |
| Bones | 95% | 92% |
| DOLLHOUSE | 1% | 0% |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | 0% | 0% |
| SIT DOWN SHUT UP | 0% | 0% |
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This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES (FRI) | FOX | 1.25 | 2.67 | 0.47 | |
| SIT DOWN SHUT UP | FOX | 1.4 | 2.67 | 0.52 | |
| DOLLHOUSE | FOX | 1.5 | 2.67 | 0.56 | |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 1.6 | 2.67 | 0.60 | canceled |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 1.8 | 2.67 | 0.67 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 2.0 | 2.67 | 0.75 | final season |
| American Dad | FOX | 2.7 | 2.67 | 1.01 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 2.7 | 2.67 | 1.01 | final season* |
| Bones | FOX | 2.9 | 2.67 | 1.08 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 3.1 | 2.67 | 1.16 | |
| Lie To Me | FOX | 3.4 | 2.67 | 1.27 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 3.5 | 2.67 | 1.31 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 3.6 | 2.67 | 1.35 | |
| 24 | FOX | 3.7 | 2.67 | 1.38 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 4.7 | 2.67 | 1.76 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
Note that the Fox average used above is its final Season to Date average prior to American Idol (see below).
Notes:
*King of the Hill: Fox declined to renew King of the Hill, but has enough new episodes so that they will be airing well into 2009, through early fall by some reports.
Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles: The numbers above are for only its Friday airings that began on February 13, 2009. FYI, It's 13 episode 18-49 average on Monday this season was 2.726 million (which is an average 18-49 rating of 2.1).
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
What possible reason is there not to put Bones at 100%?
Nice to see this: “FYI, It’s 13 episode 18-49 average on Monday this season was 2.726 million (which is an average 18-49 rating of 2.1).”
Which ought to shut up some of the TSCC fans who don’t understand that Monday’s ratings and viewers for the show sucked, too.
Bill, there’s a one percent difference between you and Robert on Dollhouse. What’s that line? “A difference that makes no difference IS no difference”? LOL!
Julia: They’re like me – they like to keep at least a small percentage of skepticism about anything and everything. Certainty is for dead men walking.
Well at least you gave Dollhouse a 1% chance of returning, Bill. LOL!!!
Wait, when was House officially renewed? I know the chances are clearly 100%, but has it been officially announced by FOX yet?
Rick, there is a multi-year deal with Hugh Laurie in place now, so we decided it’s effectively renewed.
Right! I forgot about that. Thanks Bill
Bones
—100% Its a sure thing.
Dollhouse
—0% No.
Terminator: TSCC
—0% Heck no.
Sit Down, Shut Up
—0% I think if Fox could have, they would have moved it to 6pm.
Sit Down Shut Up is now completely off the schedule and being replaced by King Of The Hill repeats. It’s canceled.
Also, you guys are crazy. Dollhouse deserves at least a 3%!
@RSH
Nothing but next Monday is going to finally shut those guys up and then of course, any of us who saw this five miles out and three months ago, were just a lucky guess LOL
I had “Lie to Me” at 96%. So there!
Bones – 100% (Slam dunk)
Don’t Forget the Lyrics – 70%
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader – 70%
Secret Millionaire – 70%
Osbournes Reloaded – 5% (Didn’t perform badly, but a major source of embarrassment for the network. And affiliates don’t want to air it. Though I do think they’ll burn off the remaining segs at some point.)
Hole in the Wall – 0% (More like Hole in the Schedule)
Dollhouse – 0% (Bad show, no viewers)
Sit Down, Shut Up – 0% (Bad show, less than no viewers)
Terminator – Minus 47562139.8% (Bad show, drove away all its viewers)
The only question marks to me are the 3 reality shows. They could go either way. They should all be brought back for another go-round — “Secret Millionaire” for another December run and the Friday shows as backup to help plug holes that are not in the wall.
And, yeah, I think you can say the trainwreck that was “Sit Down, Shut Up” is… tantamount to cancelled. Ba dum bum.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rt0hQWVnSVw
Save TSCC!!!
yeah i dont see how bones isn’t at 100% here
The hollywood reporter said they also picked up ‘Human Target’.
The Fringe finale tonight was very interesting. Three major reveals!
I’m no longer concerned about Abrams screwing up season 2! Because it’s clear that the “other dimension” looks pretty much like this one. So I don’t have to worry he produces some totally whacked out crap that looks cheesy. Also cuts down on the cost of the CGI!
I spotted the reveal about Peter as soon as Walter talked about something he loved being taken from him. The tombstone confirmed it. But I didn’t see that one coming beforehand.
There was a Star Trek fiction – actually two novels – done years ago where somebody figured out how to perfectly clone people using a mind scan – sort of like the Dollhouse technology – coupled with a transporter scan to produce perfect clones of people. They had two Kirks, and two Spocks running around, etc.
I think this is where Fringe is going. We’re gonna see other dimensional duplicates of people like Walter, Olivia, etc. Who knows WHICH William Bell she met tonight? If it was OUR William Bell, what happened to the OTHER one? Major problems of identity, conflicts of interest, etc.
Hopefully it won’t get as complicated as Lost, though.
I didn’t like that they took out David Robert Jones in the finale – and didn’t explain much about what the teleportation did to him. That was the only weak part of the finale I can see at this point.
I read yesterday somewhere that SDSU is already officially cancelled ..am I wrong ?
There hasn’t been an official announcement that I know of, but Fox pulled it from this week’s schedule. That seems like a pretty clear statement given the fact that they’re not even showing the sixth and final episode of the season.
I think FOX ahould renew both TSCC and Dollhouse for 1 more season. TSCC gets critical acclaim. With the movie coming out there might be some interest in the show. i think they should do 13 eps. if only not to piss of the terminator fans. Dollhouse they should do the same if they both Flop after ep 13 then get rid of them.
13+13? How much the cost ? For what ? Very low performers ? Who pay the bill, the fans?
Bones at 95% and 92%?
Steve, they couldn’t care less about pissing off TSCC fans since there are relatively few of them compared to shows that make money.
Again, the movie will do nothing for the show. WB would like a show to be on TV between movies but only if it makes money and doesn’t make people dislike the Terminator name.
As for Dollhouse, it’s ALREADY flopped after 12 episodes – what would 13 more do? Unless Whedon seriously revamped the series. Even then it’s got bad rep now, same as TSCC.