This is our last Oddsmakers before the NBC "second" announcement this month. My guesses are the same as last week. I'll add new guesses for Robert if he has them otherwise you can see our original guesses here.
| Program | Bill |
| Law And Order | 95% |
| Chuck | 95% |
| MEDIUM | 95% |
| MY NAME IS EARL | 25% |
| KATH & KIM | 1% |
| KINGS | 0% |
| KNIGHT RIDER | 0% |
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This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancelation prospects. Here are the others:
Our Renew / Cancel index predicts potential renewal for *next* season: Canceled/Not Returning, In Danger, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10, Renewal Announced.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 Rating (LIVE+SD) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 rating | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| CRUSOE | NBC | 0.9 | 2.31 | 0.39 | finished |
| KINGS | NBC | 1.2 | 2.31 | 0.52 | |
| FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS | NBC | 1.3 | 2.31 | 0.56 | |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 1.5 | 2.31 | 0.65 | canceled |
| LIFE (WED) | NBC | 1.65 | 2.31 | 0.72 | canceled |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 1.8 | 2.31 | 0.78 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 2.0 | 2.31 | 0.87 | canceled |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 2.1 | 2.31 | 0.91 | |
| Law And Order | NBC | 2.1 | 2.31 | 0.91 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 2.4 | 2.31 | 1.04 | |
| MEDIUM | NBC | 2.4 | 2.31 | 1.04 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 2.4 | 2.31 | 1.04 | |
| Parks and Recreation | NBC | 2.4 | 2.31 | 1.04 | |
| Southland | NBC | 2.5 | 2.31 | 1.08 | |
| 30 Rock | NBC | 3.2 | 2.31 | 1.39 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 3.3 | 2.31 | 1.43 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 3.4 | 2.31 | 1.47 | final season |
| HEROES | NBC | 3.6 | 2.31 | 1.56 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 4.0 | 2.31 | 1.73 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. I have adjusted the NBC adults 18-49 season to date average to remove the increase (of 370,000) it received during the Super Bowl week because that increase had nothing to do with the normal viewership of the network or any of its other shows.
Notes:
Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. I honestly have no idea what criteria the CW will use in keeping or not keeping Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. Because of that, and the recent renewals at other networks of poor rated comedies, I'm indicating renewal for them.
Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. This is its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Remember that plenty can change before the end of the season, particularly for the shows with indexes between 0.80 and last season’s renewal line of 0.92. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Could the renewal line be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
That’s excellent for Medium. Too bad about Kings though.
I love seeing Chuck in the green!
MY NAME IS EARL is dead because NBC just picked up a new comedy in OFF DUTY.
CHUCK is renewed.
Medium was already renewed-it was announced last week!
Skye, feel free to link any authoritative article with the Medium renewal in it. We’ll wait.
Well, I guess this is the Nick C test. All previous Chuck statements have come with qualifiers. This one did not. Hope you’re right Nick.
I thought the Hollywood Reporter was reliable, but I see what you’re saying…
http://www.reuters.com/article/industryNews/idUSTRE5422OG20090503
Skye, we saw the same sort of story on May 3, but since NBC said nothing about Medium on May 4 in its announcements, my opinion is that story cannot be counted on 100%. Still, we both think Medium *will* be renewed, so it’s a small difference.
I’m starting to see how all of this works. Thanks for the response, though I was happier when I thought it was a done deal!
From the NBC Board.
All you “Daily Show with Jon Stewart” fans, “Chuck” just got a shout out as Jon did his don’t cancel “Chuck” pitch. Go thank him, and catch it on it’s re-airings on Comedy Central.
first I heard of any attempts to renew Earl in that reuters article…
Why do you ask Skye for a reliable article, but not Nick C?
Lots of people have asked what makes Nick C reliable, but no one ever answers. And I bet no one will answer this either.
Skye’s response “Medium was already renewed-it was announced last week!” was that the Medium renewal had *already* been announced. That’s very different from anything Nick C has ever said on the site.
And since I follow TV news more closely than you can possibly imagine, I wanted clarification to either (1) see what I might have missed or (2) as it turned out, see the same sort of non-announcement I had already read.
NBC must be kicking themselves for renewing Southland so soon. I predict it will get a 1.5 this Thursday going up against some stiff competition: Grey’s Anatomy season finale, CSI:NY season finale, and a decisive game 6 of the Lakers vs. Rockets series.
In behalf of all the fans, Thank you very much.
Were happy and excited to know that were going to see CHUCK’s new seasons. We look forward to it.
Thank you NBC.
Law & Order
—100% Despite horrific lead-ins all season long, it had gotten ratings slightly below mediocre. No way it doesn’t come back as a midseasoner or a replacement for a failed series.
Chuck
—90% Maybe only 13 eps, but it’ll be back.
Medium
—85% Midseasoner or replacement for a failed show is my guess.
My Name Is Earl
—30% With two comedy pickups, space is limited. Will they be able to get a good enough deal?
Knight Rider
—0% My guess is no chance.
Kath & Kim
—0% Unless they are planning two 2hr comedy blocks, then no.
Kings
—0% My guess is no chance.
Dear New World Order
I will take that bet. I think Southland will do just fine. It is a good show. It will win awards for NBC. I predict a small up tick ………………… Small but up.
-J
I wish NBC would just announce the renewal of CHUCK. Even though chances are good, I just need the official word. The wait is killing me!!!
Nick C.
How about some good news for all the Medium fans? We’re just as anxious to hear about it as Chuck fans are to hear about Chuck. So how about it? Any new developments on Medium? Have they reached a deal yet? Surely they’ve agreed on terms by now! Give us something!
Puh-leeeeeaassssee!!!