Robert and I are both fans of Jack Wakshlag, the head of research at Turner Broadcasting. Once again, he's in the news speaking the truth that you never hear from the broadcast folks, that advertising supported cable has been and continues today to be the biggest threat to broadcast television, not DVRs or online viewing.
Compare his estimated loss next season for broadcast television of 10.5% of adults 18-49 to this season's losses and gains.
Turner Broadcasting's top research spinner, Jack Wakshlag, says the big four broadcast networks will see their ratings among the coveted 18-49 audience drop as much as 10.5% next season, almost twice the attrition endured in that demographic over the last several years. He lays some of the blame on Leno.
According to Wakshlag, Leno will cause a chunk of the under-50 crowd to flee, and many of them will go to cable instead of other broadcast networks.
more where that came from at the Los Angeles Times.
If that’s true, then this hurts the other networks more than NBC. If NBC can make money on Leno, and the other networks don’t see an uptick, then NBC wins!
Amen to that. Whatever crackpot decided to give the horrendously unfunny Leno 5 hour-long slots during the week should have themselves committed.
Leno 5 nights a week=the death of NBC primetime. This time next year, NBCW will have been formed, catering exclusively to democrat 18-35 females. XD
Leno is pretty funny to me. He’s my favorite comedian. But with that being said, there is no way in hell I’m watching his new show 5 nights a week. I’ll maybe watch one or two shows.
There just isn’t much competition at 11:35pm as opposed to 10pm
Am I the only one that’s a huge fan of Leno moving to 10? Since I never watch anything at 10 anyway, I’ll be able to watch Leno at 10, TDS at 11, either Conan or Colbert at 11:30, Conan for the rest of The Tonight Show if I watch Colbert at 11:30, and then Craig Ferguson.
It will be a drag to have to choose between Colbert and the start of Conan’s Tonight Show, but that’s better than having to choose between Conan and Ferguson in the past.
We have committed to never watch an episode of Jay Leno and we don’t have cable so we will be watching your competition NBC.
I’m 36, and I like Leno. He’s much better than Letterman, who just seems angry all the time, and has gotten very political lately.
I agree. Wasn’t that Obama guy on his show?
Craig Ferguson tops Leno and Letterman, no contest
While this is a far more reasonable claim than every other claim about Leno, I find it very amusing that every exec says Leno is going to benefit them the most.
While this is a far more reasonable claim than every other claim about Leno, I find it very amusing that every exec says Leno is going to benefit them the most.
I’m spinning in my grave at the number of people who think this hack is funny.
How much longer will it be before weekly ratings tables have a long list of competitors for the #1 spots and headlines like “USA tops 18 – 24, TNT close behind, CBS and ABC battle History Channel for overall viewers” start appearing?
I am guessing that while a large chuck of folks may go to cable some will stay on the big nets, at least initially, so there may be some uptick at ABC, CBS, and Fox, but not as much as they might hope. NBC, on the other hand, will learn about phyrric victories with Leno x 5 — yes, cheaper to make and more profit potential but probably much lower ratings as well. A few more “victories” like that and remaining a top 10 network starts to become a question.
I know Leno has fans (otherwise he would not even be on television) but I ceased to be one of them years ago. Most nights I did not even chuckle (forget about laugh) at his jokes. I also gave up on Letterman. Too many of his jokes were recycled with only a name or place changed. Both have moved away from being funny and toward mean-spirited viciousness couched as comedy (other folks I am sure feel otherwise). Frankly, it saddens me to say these things about Leno and Letterman because I did once enjoy watching both of them. However, when you can watch an entire show and not find more than 2 minutes of entertainment, it’s time to move on.
I think people will only go to the cable instead of the other broadcast networks if there is something they want to watch more on the cable networks. I don’t consider: “Hm, I don’t want to watch Leno, so I’ll avoid all other broadcast and only look at cable channels”. I think other broadcast networks have a good opportunity to put up shows against Leno that will easily steal the audience.
Leno’s demographic is 18-35 female democrats???
I’m in the target demo and personally I don’t have any interest at all in seeing the new Leno thing. I want to see new projects, new scripted projects. Not all this talk and fluff crap the nets churn out now. If I wanted to see Leno I would have watched the friggin’ Tonight Show.
The only thing worse than putting on Leno 5 nights a week would be putting on Letterman 5 nights a week (hasnt been funny since the 80s).
It is an interesting experiment however. I am curious as to how it will turn out.
I want to see new projects, new scripted projects
Because that worked so well for the networks this year? Even CBS is only 1/5 with The Mentalist being their only successful new scripted show. NBC may have renewed Parks and Southland, but their ratings are hardly great, and may not even be profitable. You can’t keep trying the same thing and expecting a different result. And the fact that people will choose to watch cable over ABC/CBS isn’t Leno’s fault, is ABC/CBS’s fault.
Cable execs have predicted this drop in networks ever since they’ve had original programming. It means nothing. it’s just propaganda to get more ad dollars. Hell, the networks do it too. Leno moving to 10 doesn’t destroy network 18-49s. If NBC wasn’t in 4th place for the past 3/4 seasons, they wouldn’t even be MOVING Leno there.
If the economy keeps going this way, nobody’s going to be able to afford even basic cable (and with the digital conversion coming in, if you live in a major city near all the TV stations you almost don’t need it anyway), so the networks will win. Or everyone will just start reading again.
I have to agree that the move to cable is really up to not even ABC/CBS, but ABC—if A1849 wanted to watch endless CSI spinoffs and copycats, they’d be doing that now. If ABC was smart about developing for the 10pm hour—and let’s face it, Castle and The Unusuals were at least interesting even if they didn’t catch on—it’s theirs for the taking.
Also cable’s been programming to the 10pm hour for some years now. Sure, there might be more sampling because of Jay, but I’m not sure about mass exodus. Predict a slight uptick in cable, but ABC to be the real winner here. Or, god forbid, CBS might actually get younger as NBC ages like an aging thing.