So the NBC affiliates commission a study to see what people may do with Leno at 10pm, whether it will hurt their local newscasts or not. But why bother? They're not going to prevent the Leno at 10 show from happening, and once it's on the air they'll have immediate real numbers as to what people are doing, not goofy poll numbers. And if it's just a PR move, what's their objective?
The NBC affiliates board was very pleased with the results of a comprehensive study it commissioned to find out how to best retain local-news viewers coming out of the Jay Leno 10 p.m. program, which launches in the fall.
The survey of some 3,000 news viewers in the 25-54 age group showed that “north of 50%” said they were interested in watching Leno, according to NBC affiliate board chairman Michael Fiorile.
Of that majority group, more than half said there was a “very strong likelihood” that they'd stick around to watch late news after Jay.
Fiorile would not share specific numbers, as the affiliates had not yet seen the results. But he said he was pleasantly surprised by them.
“It's a high percentage,” he said. “If you hold onto more than 50% of your lead-in, you're doing pretty good.”
via Broadcasting & Cable.
booooring…who screws leno
Thinking more about it, the older demo that watches Leno would be more likely to stick around and watch the late news vs the younder demo that would be watching a traditional scripted primetime broadcast in that slot. My two cents for what its worth (proabaly one cent)
This survey is pointless. Most people I know have their viewing habits in regard to local news outlets set in stone until something drastic (like an anchor leaving or a pattern of badly botching stories) happens. Most people I know also look at the clock and see it is coming up on news time so they just flip the television on and wait for the news, letting whatever is on there drone in the background while they do dishes, take a shower, prep for bed, etc.
The only reason I can think of to do this is to head off more noises from the stations about the perceived white flag that NBC is waving in regard to the 3rd hour of weekly viewing. The CW recently went through a mini-revolt, if memory serves, regarding the continued practice of Sunday night movies instead of original programming and, ultimately, the CW returned Sundays to the affiliates. Maybe NBC is afraid of the same sort of revolt with Leno. However, if this is true, it would be a temporary reprieve at best since, as is stated, real numbers will come in to (dis)prove the value of the lead-in of Leno to the local news.
In that vein, “north of 50%” could mean anything from 50.01% upward. Until survey numbers are out, I don’t put stock in that statement. Btw, I am not one of those in the “north of 50%” — I long ago gave up on him. I applaud his choices to help others both publicly and privately but I gave up on his comedy material years ago. Ironically, I did tune in out of curiosity during the strike to see what he would do and, apparently, he did most of his own material in the monologues (something his union was not happy about). He was far funnier than what he has been been doing before and since with hired writers. Go figure.
SW,
I agree with you regarding Leno’s material pre-strike, strike, and post-strike. It was all on his shoulders and the pressure was on and he came through. But it would be impossible for him to continue to write quality material by himself for any extended period of time. Remember he is in front of the same audience every night, most comedians repeat the same material over-and-over for an entire year or more. Maybe the solution is to have a constantly revolving group of writers to keep fresh ideas and material in the room so that nobody gets complacent… I doubt the WGA would ever allow that though.
People still watch the news?
This is a little bit more “proactive” than “reactive.” If the affiliates conduct some research now, they can get a feel as to what might happen, and plan for the various scenarios accordingly. However, if the affiliates wait until they have “hard numbers,” they are essentially waiting to REact, after the fact. Numbers, as in Nielsens, are not much more than electronic polls. Human error is still possible in the button-pushing of people meters. Why not poll now, and see how the leading measure (predictive polling) compares to the lagging measure of ratings?
This survey could potentially be helpful if it’s being done market-to-market. They know they won’t stop Jay but they need to learn how much work they’ll have to do to retain viewership for the news. This is just solid planning by the affiliates. It would be stupid to sit back and not analyze the potential impact of the new nightly model. They need to have an educated guess as to whether or not Jay will consistently bring in news viewers or if they’ll have to bump up promotion campaigns locally. I for one, respect my particular local NBC affiliate news more than the rest. I won’t be watching Leno, but I will turn it back for the newscast. This is the information they are looking for.
“If the affiliates conduct some research now, they can get a feel as to what might happen, and plan for the various scenarios accordingly.”
The thing is, what’s there to plan for? The news is the news, and it’s going to be on the same time as it always is, what else can you do with it? I don’t see how they’d really promote it any more or any differently than they do now. What can they do to draw more people to the news, start having the reporters strip or something?
But yeah the fact is I think pretty much everyone has picked a local newscast that they always watch (or none at all) already so I really doubt that a weaker lead-in will have any noticeable impact on their numbers.
” Most people I know ” sounds less reliable than ” north of 50% ” even, to me. Donm’t swim with the sharks in a giant chum bucket.
That’s right, donm’t.
Mumbo, they can plan for how they will be selling advertising. If they can’t convince their advertisers that ratings will stay about the same, their rates will drop. But if this survey had shown that no one will be watching Leno they know that if they sell ads at the current rates that they will have to do a ton of make goods, and will adjust accordingly.
I might be seeing this from a different perspective? I’m the type of person who, in the rare cases when I watch broadcast news, just watches whatever channel I was watching before. I have no “favorite” local newscast. If I *must* see the news (weather forecast, some major event, etc…), then I’ll usually watch Fox affiliate at 10, because 11 p.m. is too late for me.
As for planning and promotions, perhaps affiliates are deciding whether or not to more news teasers in their 8 p.m. or 9 p.m. hours, whereas before those were prevalent at 10 p.m.? I have no idea how that works.
kathy, i work in live news
though, i don’t watch the news myself outside of work. i’m just glad we’re not an NBC affiliate and get to keep our 9 pm slot for news 
i never thought leno was funny.. will not watch, but can’t wait for conan to start up again.
I believe they are doing it because there are people at the affiliates who feel they either need to prove their opinion that this is write or wrong. Its an dispute settler, not actually research. This is the reason behind every time my company does market research anyway.
I hope it fails so bad that they have to go back to scripted shows in mid season.
You commission a study if you want to try and get Zucker and BS thrown out. If the numbers from the study came back and showed the affiliates would be severely hurt from the change, then they have a right to say “these guys are idiots and are hurting GE.”
Nick, I’m not sure how Leno hurts GE. It hurts the affiliates, of which I believe 10 are O&Os, but considering the money the network is saving, I think the money those O&Os will lose is negligible. What does GE care about the countless affiliates that are going to be completely screwed over by Leno and Friday Night Lights and all the other shows where network is at least breaking even, but the ratings are barely even registering?
Julia, because they’re business partners. I could see a class action lawsuit from the affiliates if this fails.
First rule of evaluating surveys is to see who commissioned them. If their survey then bolsters their position, question it. This is just PR work to try to convince NBC affiliates that Leno will not tank and take the network with him. It is meaningless … except to show how desperately concerned NBC is about keeping their NBC affiliates in line. And that’s the real nugget you can take from this.
I can see a class action lawsuit being something that GE would be worried about, but I think there are far greater reasons for GE to can Zucker and Silverman than Leno.