NBC has announced its 2009-10 schedule. Of course, the addition of The Jay Leno Show every weekday at 10pm has dramatically changed its schedule vs. Fall 2008.
Note that NBC went 0-5 with its new Fall 2008 shows. Not a single new Fall 2008 show returns for 2009.
Compared to 2008 NBC has the same number of new shows (if you consider Leno as a single show), far more new show time, and far more unscripted show time. Although all the numbers are driven by Leno.
NBC is only scheduling 8 hours of non-repeat scripted programming a week in the Fall. That could be the same amount that the CW schedules in its 5 nights a week.
Here is a look at its Fall 2009 Schedule vs. its Fall 2008 Schedule by the Numbers.
New Shows
2009 (5 shows, 7.5 hours): The Jay Leno Show (5 hours), Trauma (1 hour), Parenthood (1 hour), Community (1/2 hour)
2008 (4 shows, 4 hours): My Own Worst Enemy (1 hour), Kath & Kim (1 hour), Knight Rider (1 hour), Crusoe (1 hour)
Unscripted Shows
2009 (12 hours): The Jay Leno Show (5 hours), Biggest Loser (2 hours), Dateline NBC (1 hour), Football Night in America (1 hour), Sunday Night Football (3 hours)
2008 (9 hours): Biggest Loser (2 hours), America's Toughest Jobs (1 hour), Deal or No Deal (1 hours), Dateline NBC (1 hour), Football Night in America (1 hour), Sunday Night Football (3 hours)
My Ratings Forecast
The dominant factor in any NBC comparison is how well The Jay Leno Show does. Last Fall the Tonight Show did a 1.4 demo rating at 11:30pm. For prognostication's sake, I'll assume that Leno at 10pm can do a 2.0. Even comparing against new episodes from last fall, Leno's likely to do better on Wednesdays and Fridays. He'll do relatively better once repeat time for scripted shows starts.
With that in mind, NBC's Monday looks to be about even. Tuesday a negative. Wednesday looks to be a net positive, potentially big. Thursday's a net negative, potentially big. Friday a net positive. Saturday and Sunday even. Overall, any move up or down is all going to be due to Leno's success level.
For information on other broadcast TV Fall 2009 schedules click here.
| Day / Time | 2008 | 2009 |
| Monday | ||
| 8-9p | Chuck | Heroes |
| 9-10p | Heroes | Trauma |
| 10-11p | My Own Worst Enemy | The Jay Leno Show |
| Tuesday | ||
| 8-10p | The Biggest Loser | The Biggest Loser |
| 9:30-10p | ||
| 10-11p | Law & Order:SVU | The Jay Leno Show |
| Wednesday | ||
| 8-9p | Knight Rider | Parenthood |
| 9-10p | Deal or No Deal | Law & Order: SVU |
| 10-11p | Lipstick Jungle | The Jay Leno Show |
| Thursday | ||
| 8-8:30p | My Name Is Earl | SNL Weekend Update Thursday |
| 8:30-9p | Kath & Kim | Parks & Recreation |
| 9-9:30p | The Office | The Office |
| 9:30-10p | 30 Rock | Community/30 Rock |
| 10-11p | ER | The Jay Leno Show |
| Friday | ||
| 8-9p | Crusoe | Law & Order |
| 9-10p | America's Toughest Jobs | Southland |
| 10-11p | Life | The Jay Leno Show |
| Saturday | ||
| 8-9p | Dateline NBC | Dateline NBC |
| 9-10p | Knight Rider (Encores) | Trauma (Encores) |
| 10-11p | Law & Order:SVU (Encores) | Law & Order:SVU (Encores) |
| Sunday | ||
| 7-8pm | Football Night in America | Football Night in America |
| 8-11p | Sunday Night Football | Sunday Night Football |
Shows in BOLD are/were new, shows in italics are unscripted, 2008 shows in strikethrough did not return.
The shows scheduled to premiere in mid-season or later are: Chuck, Day One, 100 Questions, Mercy, The Marriage Ref and Celebrity Apprentice.
It's not worth the time to compare mid-season schedules. Changes are almost certain between now and January.
Kath and Kim was never on Tuesdays.
TheOne, that was a strange copy/paste that escaped me. Fixed.
Freaking Jay Leno. he needs to give it up. there are good shows that are getting canceled because he doesn’t know when to move on.
Boycott Leno on Monday, watch “Castle”
Nathan Fillion and Stana Katic are much more worth it.
Jay Leno was only picked up because NBC did not want Leno to move to another network and compete against Conan.
I have no plan on watching him, because I personally don’t care for the late night talk shows. Of course, considering how cheap the cost of producing that show must be, the ratings will have to be really bad for it to be considered a failure. I think, however, that it will move more viewers to other networks in the long run, because Jay’s show seems to be in a style that was better suited for the 1970s.
I’m actually most interested to see what Leno does on Thursday since I think in terms of the ‘flow’ of the night Thursday is his best slot. And as things stand I suspect Monday is going to be a negative for NBC.
As far as the schedule goes, my only planned watching in the fall on NBC as it stands right now is Thursdays – Office/Community. I’ve sat through two terrible seasons of Heroes waiting for that show to get back on track, and now that it’s not paired with Chuck, I have no desire to continue watching it. Especially since it’s up against How I met your Mother (presumably) I have a feeling that Heroes on Monday in that time slot will be dead come mid-season.
why didnt they just call it “leno” ?
Thanx for these analysis! THIS is what makes TVbythenumbers.com worth the effort (and more than that), NOT promotions of specific shows (Chuck or others).
Have there ever been so many hours of late night talk programming on? I count 3.5 for NBC, 2 for CBS, and 1 for ABC daily. Are there are enough high profile guests to go around? Are NBC’s shows going to be competing with each other for guests such that Leno ends up hurting Fallon?
Leno’s got to hurt Conan’s ratings. I can’t see how he doesn’t.
I think Wednesdays had a lot of room for improvement last year, and I think that it will improve.
Mondays could be a potential negative
Tuesdays are doomed to negative
Thursdays look that way as well, with SNL Thursdays
Friday definitely looks like a positive to me
It totally doesn’t matter, but I think Saturdays will be better, cuz I’m expecting Trauma to do better than Knight Rider.
Sundays will be the same.
@ Katarzyna
I think that’s a gross mis-use of the word “boycott”.
A boycott is when you go without something you would normally get/watch as a matter of principle. Watching Castle instead is hardly a boycott, it’s just choosing to watch something you enjoy more.
Is it a boycott when I decide to watch “The Office” instead of “CSI”? No.
You all need to relax! It is good that they are keeping Chuck on Monday nights at 8pm rather then bouncing it around the schedule. Heroes will do better at 8pm so it doesn’t go up against Dancing with the Stars. And we don’ want Chuck on before or during the Olympics. Let NBC run it’s adds for Chuck during the Olympics & during the fall to draw more viewers.
We should be happy to have our show back. A lot of good shows were dumped this year so let’s just relax & enjoy.
I agree with the analysis completely. Spot on, except I doubt the “potentially big” net negative on Thursday. I expect that the Thursdays comedies will remain relatively stable. Office/30 Rock are identical to last year, and unless Community tanks, it would be hard pressed to do worse than Earl. Parks is already tracking far ahead of K&K, and that is during the Spring rather than Fall, a definate disadvantage.
So really, the only Thursday swing (unless Office/30 Rock go down year-to-year for some reason) is the ER > Leno switch. I don’t think that would be a massive drop, although I’m sure it will be noticable.
As Ed McMahon (from the REAL Tonight Show) used to say to Johnny Carson: “You are correct, sir!” (re: chucksmom’s comment). Relax, enjoy, we weren’t axed!
@johnthemon
You’re right. Perhaps “ignore” is the better word here… “boycott” was the first which came to my mind, and English is not my native language.
Law and Order on at 8:00 HM! I thought the 8:00 hour was supposed to be the family hour. When did Law and Order become a family show!?
Was Deal or No Deal canceled or just not on the fall schedule? Sorry, if it was said in another post- I don’t really feel like digging through them…
128 I agree that the comedies on Thursday will probably hold steady (actually I think they’ll do better because I’m expecting big things from Community) but if you assume (as Bill did) that Leno averages a 2.0 at 10 then the drop from Leno to ER is more than a point, that’s a pretty big drop that’s going to drag the average down.