This is the final Renew or Cancel Index for the 2008-9 Broadcast TV Season (September 08 - May 09). The Index will return again to predict the fate of your favorite broadcast scripted shows in September, 2009.
The results, as they say, are in. The end of the 2008-9 broadcast TV season has left its typical trail of canceled shows, but also some surprises in the shows that were renewed for next season. Along with the final numbers for the season, I'll propose some caveats that I'll apply to my predictions next season.
For the 2007-8 season, the Renew/Cancel Index line fell quite dramatically at 0.92. The future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. If a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
For this season (2008-9) the results were far less clear. Many shows that were renewed fell far below an Index of 0.92, The New Adventures of Old Christine (a Wednesday show) was renewed with an Index of 0.67. Dollhouse (on Friday) was renewed with an Index of 0.56. Likewise, some shows with Indexes well above last year's line were canceled: My Name is Earl (1.05), Reaper (1.14), Worst Week (1.00). The strategy of culling your low performing shows to try and raise your ratings average results took a back seat to other factors this season.
Reasons shows were renewed when they fell far below the "Renew/Cancel Index" line:
1. Friday time slot: Less is expected from shows on Fridays.
Dollhouse (see also #4), Numb3rs, Ghost Whisperer.
2. Syndication economics: Either the producer is willing to accept a cheap deal to achieve enough episodes for syndication, or a production company/network corporate pair is willing to accept lower ratings/advertising revenues in exchange for future syndication profits. Seems to apply only to comedies?
'Til Death, Scrubs, Ugly Betty, New Adventures of Old Christine
3. Subsidy from a 3rd Party
Friday Night Lights (DirecTV), Flashpoint (CTV)
4. No systematic explanation
Gary Unmarried. Did CBS want to keep the same 2 comedies trying for the elusive second comedy block?
Better Off Ted. Did the 6 episodes already paid for factor into the cost factor for next season?
Dollhouse. It's not just Friday at work here. Rumor is that the budget is being cut to reality show levels.
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Reasons shows were canceled when they fell far above the "Renew/Cancel Index" line:
1. Plum time slot, Average ratings: Retentionistas Revenge? That will have to wait for another post 
Worst Week, Eleventh Hour, Surviving Suburbia, Samantha Who?
2. The Jay Leno Show Time Grab (unlikely to be repeated)
My Name is Earl, Medium (although picked up by CBS), maybe Kath & Kim
3. Wrong Show On the Wrong Network (unlikely to be repeated)
Reaper
4. Producer fatigue?
King Of The Hill. Producer fatigue is the conventional wisdom, and I admit, I've got nothing else.
With that, here is the final Renew/Cancel Index list for the 2008-9 broadcast TV season.
June, 2009 edits: Inspired by our relationship with Nielsen, we are removing older, archived, Nielsen data from the site. The tables below are the same as the one published in May, 2009, except the show and network season to date adults 18-49 ratings have been removed. However, the Renew/Cancel Index which was calculated using the removed numbers is the same as before. For reference, the season average 18-49 ratings were ABC: 2.64, CBS: 2.88, NBC: 2.25, CW: 0.78, and Fox: 2.67.
Canceled/Not Returning, Renewed, Both.
| PROGRAM | Net |
|
|
Renew/ Cancel index |
| EASY MONEY | CW | 0.25 | ||
| JERICHO | CW | 0.38 | ||
| VALENTINE | CW | 0.38 | ||
| CRUSOE | NBC | 0.40 | ||
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 0.47 | ||
| SIT DOWN SHUT UP | FOX | 0.52 | ||
| KINGS | NBC | 0.53 | ||
| DOLLHOUSE | FOX | 0.56 | ||
| FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS | NBC | 0.58 | ||
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 0.60 | ||
| IN THE MOTHERHOOD | ABC | 0.61 | ||
| ACCORDING TO JIM-TU 9:30P | ABC | 0.64 | ||
| CUPID | ABC | 0.64 | ||
| ELI STONE | ABC | 0.64 | ||
| UNUSUALS, THE | ABC | 0.64 | ||
| EX LIST, THE | CBS | 0.66 | ||
| FLASHPOINT | CBS | 0.66 | ||
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 0.67 | ||
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 0.67 | ||
| BETTER OFF TED | ABC | 0.68 | ||
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 0.68 | ||
| OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 0.70 | ||
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 0.71 | ||
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 0.72 | ||
| SCRUBS-WED 8PM | ABC | 0.72 | ||
| LIFE (WED) | NBC | 0.73 | ||
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 0.73 | ||
| NUMB3RS | CBS | 0.73 | ||
| HARPER'S ISLAND | CBS | 0.76 | ||
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS | CW | 0.76 | ||
| UNIT, THE | CBS | 0.80 | ||
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 0.80 | ||
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 0.83 | ||
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 0.83 | ||
| GHOST WHISPERER | CBS | 0.83 | ||
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 0.87 | ||
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 0.89 | ||
| GAME, THE | CW | 0.89 | ||
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 0.89 | ||
| COLD CASE | CBS | 0.90 | ||
| CASTLE | ABC | 0.91 | ||
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 0.91 | ||
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 0.93 | ||
| Law And Order | NBC | 0.93 | ||
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 0.94 | ||
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 0.97 | ||
| SURVIVING SUBURBIA (limbo) | ABC | 0.98 | ||
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 1.01 | ||
| American Dad | FOX | 1.01 | ||
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 1.01 | ||
| Chuck | NBC | 1.07 | ||
| MEDIUM | NBC |
|
1.07 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 1.07 | ||
| Parks and Recreation | NBC | 1.07 | ||
| Southland | NBC | 1.07 | ||
| Bones | FOX | 1.08 | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | 1.10 | ||
| CSI: NY | CBS | 1.11 | ||
| REAPER | CW | 1.15 | ||
| Simpsons | FOX | 1.16 | ||
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 1.18 | ||
| NCIS | CBS | 1.18 | ||
| Big Bang Theory, THE | CBS | 1.22 | ||
| Mentalist, THE | CBS | 1.22 | ||
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 1.25 | ||
| Lie To Me | FOX | 1.27 | ||
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 1.29 | ||
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 1.29 | ||
| Family Guy | FOX | 1.31 | ||
| 24 | FOX | 1.35 | ||
| FRINGE | FOX | 1.35 | ||
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | 1.36 | ||
| 90210 | CW | 1.40 | ||
| Gossip Girl | CW | 1.40 | ||
| One Tree Hill | CW | 1.40 | ||
| 30 Rock | NBC | 1.42 | ||
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 1.47 | ||
| E.R. | NBC | 1.51 | ||
| BACHELOR, THE | ABC | 1.51 | ||
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1.53 | ||
| CSI | CBS | 1.56 | ||
| LOST | ABC | 1.59 | ||
| HEROES | NBC | 1.60 | ||
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 1.63 | ||
| HOUSE | FOX | 1.76 | ||
| OFFICE | NBC | 1.78 | ||
| Smallville | CW | 1.78 | ||
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 1.82 | ||
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 1.97 |
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How did we come up with our Index? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox’s 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the “cancel” range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. For NBC, I removed the effects of the Super Bowl week entirely from its 18-49 season to date average. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network’s average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger.
Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles: The numbers above are for only its Friday airings that began on February 13, 2009. FYI, It’s 13 episode 18-49 average on Monday this season was 2.726 million (which is an average 18-49 rating of 2.1).
Life moved to Wednesday beginning November 5. The numbers above are its Wednesday only STD 18-49 average as calculated by me. For past reference, the 4 Life episodes that aired on Fridays averaged 2.043 million adults 18-49.
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UNSCRIPTED SHOWS FOR ALL NETWORKS
For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. Since we, and you, don't care much about unscripted shows, and the Index isn't all that good in predicting their future, I don't worry about predictions, but here is the data for reference.
Here is the final list of unscripted show results from the 2008-9 broadcast season.
| Program | Net | Renew/ Cancel index |
| HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7P | FOX | 0.37 |
| IN HARM'S WAY | CW | 0.38 |
| HOLE IN WALL-SUN 7:30P | FOX | 0.45 |
| GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD 830P | CBS | 0.45 |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 0.49 |
| GAME SHOW IN MY HEAD | CBS | 0.49 |
| AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 0.49 |
| CHOPPING BLOCK | NBC | 0.53 |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL | NBC | 0.53 |
| HOWIE DO IT 8:30 | NBC | 0.53 |
| HOWIE DO IT 8P | NBC | 0.53 |
| 48 Hours Mystery | CBS | 0.56 |
| DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 0.56 |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 0.57 |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 0.57 |
| Dateline SUN-7PM | NBC | 0.58 |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 0.58 |
| COPS | FOX | 0.60 |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 0.61 |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 0.64 |
| 13 - FEAR IS REAL | CW | 0.64 |
| Homeland SECURITY USA | ABC | 0.64 |
| Supernanny | ABC | 0.64 |
| MILLION DOLLAR PASSWORD | CBS | 0.66 |
| Dateline FRI | NBC | 0.67 |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 0.67 |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 0.71 |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 0.72 |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P | FOX | 0.75 |
| Kitchen Nightmares | FOX | 0.79 |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P | ABC | 0.79 |
| MOMMA'S BOYS | NBC | 0.80 |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 0.83 |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 0.84 |
| PRIMETIME:WHAT WOULD U DO | ABC | 0.87 |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED | NBC | 0.89 |
| STYLISTA | CW | 0.89 |
| 60 Minutes | CBS | 0.94 |
| SUPERSTARS OF DANCE | NBC | 0.98 |
| FOX NASCAR SPRINT CUP PST | FOX | 1.01 |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 1.02 |
| Amazing Race 14 | CBS | 1.08 |
| Amazing Race 13 | CBS | 1.11 |
| TRUE BEAUTY | ABC | 1.14 |
| BACHELORETTE, THE | ABC | 1.14 |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P | ABC | 1.25 |
| SURVIVOR: TOCANTINS | CBS | 1.32 |
| HELL'S KITCHEN | FOX | 1.35 |
| FOX NASCAR SPRINT CUP | FOX | 1.38 |
| APPRENTICE 8 | NBC | 1.42 |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 1.42 |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 1.44 |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 1.46 |
| Biggest Loser 6 | NBC | 1.47 |
| OT, THE | FOX | 1.65 |
| Biggest Loser 7 | NBC | 1.69 |
| Dancing with the Stars | ABC | 1.74 |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 1.87 |
| AMERICA'S Top Model - 6 | CW | 2.29 |
| AMERICA'S Top Model-5 | CW | 2.42 |
| NBC Sunday Night Football | NBC | 2.89 |
| American Idol-TUESDAY | FOX | 3.40 |
| American Idol-WEDNESDAY | FOX | 3.44 |
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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.
All ratings are Live+SD.
It’s interesting that NBC had five shows, Chuck, MNIE, Medium, P & R, and Southland that all had the same index but got different results. All things being equal it would seem that potential played a part in P & R and Southland’s quick renewal, age seemed to work against MNIE (although it didn’t with the other bubble show L & O) cost and schedule fit worked against Medium (that and the fact that they had an alternative allowing them to take a hard stance in negotiations) and Chuck had other factors in it’s favor (sponsor support).
It would be interesting to know what the factors a network considers when the ratings are equal, what is the tie breaker, obviously money, but money up front (cost), money down the road (syndication), potential money (upside vs downside).
Shouldn’t Castle be listed under “no systematic explanation”?
ken, one of the things I think I should have included in the post, which I may edit in, is that the rules for the Index assume we don’t have access to any more data (like internal discussions) next season than we did this season. Everything about my process has to necessarily use information that is (substantially) public information.
shelly, I think both Cold Case and Castle fell into the “right on the line” category, and I don’t think it was inexplicable that they were renewed, nor would I have found it particularly surprising if they were cancelled.
Im pretty sure the fan campaign sealed the deal for Chuck, without it, subay wouldn’t have thrown money at it….
DJM, there were reports that Subway approached NBC before the campaign.
Bill, Surviving Suburbia is NOT cancelled nor is ABC burning off episodes. ABC is just airing some new episodes and they have until September to determine the shows fate. http://www.thefutoncritic.com/news.aspx?id=8118
I have some explanations for the series with no explanations
1. Better off Ted – Once again ABC has no comedies this year except 4 new ones on wednesdays and there Scrubs/Ted block for tuesday. ABC seems to really like the duo despite low ratings but they are desperate for a working comedy block, Remember no new comedy since Hope & Faith has gotten a 3rd season on ABC (Samantha Who? was close this year).
2. Gary Unmarried – Similiar to the ABC scenario, Gary though low rated was likely renewed because CBS really wants to develop their second comedy block a little more. Plus they can afford an hour of low ratings with all of there other high rated shows. I had originally thought that Gary would be scrapped and Rules would air in the fall alongside Christine, but it seems CBS likes Gary. Its funny that in the past CBS would cancel a moderately rated, post Two and a Half Men series (Out of Practice, Courting Alex, Worst Week) but keep the low rated Gary.
3. Dollhouse – The best reason for FOX keeping Dollhouse is for a second chance. Terminator got it, and if FOX axed Dollhouse after a season naturall fans would be pissed. Also consistency in the time period, may help out for next year. However dont expect Dollhouse to go beyond its original 13 episode order.
Dan, I have added (limbo) next to Surviving Suburbia. It may not be entirely dead, but by the standards of the list if you’re not on an announced schedule, you’re canceled. And your reasons for the 3 shows that survived against the odds are as good as any, but my problem is its pretty much impossible to systematically apply those kinds of reasons to other shows in the future with only publicly available knowledge.
No I know, theres no way to systematically apply those answers, I was just giving my opinion on those 3 surprise renewals. I thought the list was good, BTW. I also agree that its unlikely for Surviving Suburbia to return but it’s ABC so anything is possible. It’s also weird to see Jericho on the list, but it did air reruns in CW primetime so I guess it should be counted
And originally Suburbia wasn’t on the announced schedule but it seems ABC wants to give the series another chance (possibly for midseason). That makes Samantha Who? the only series that was axed that I originally thought would be renewed (now its part of ABC’s summer burnoff series), and King of the Hill is actually returning next year for 6 episodes, but after that its done.
Bill, didn’t you take out the week of the Superbowl for NBC? If you leave it in, according to the last posting of the season’s demo numbers, the NBC 18-49 would be 2.53 (3.34/1.32) right? Then those five NBC shows would have an index of 0.95 instead of 1.07 and they would all be right on the bubble, making it completely explicable that some were cancelled and some were retained.
FarmGirl, you are correct. And I realize I forgot a lot of my boilerplate. I will add it when I am back.
Oops and I forgot to do some extra things too. Will fix.
Update; Boilerplate added along with explanation of NBC Super Bowl week bump removal.
GHOST WHISPERER – Number 1 show on Friday. Number 1 and Number 2 best breasts on TV.
NUMB3RS – Numb3r 2 show on Friday. Although it was reportedly “almost” cancelled.
‘TIL DEATH – blackmail
SCRUBS – Steve McPherson is a fan; one of the few ABC shows that scores young adult male demos
OLD CHRISTINE – Nina Tassler pet project. Also, she wants to spite me.
GARY UNMARRIED – There certainly isn’t much explanation for this one. I actually thought it had great chances of returning early in the season, and then not as great towards the end. Creatively, it was falling apart, cast members kept getting let go, and then creator Ed Yeager was pushed out. And then CBS shot 7 comedy pilots. Who knew they’d only pick up 1? I mean, if the show can find its way back, there is potential for growth, just not with it still stuck behind that Julia Louis Dreyfus trainwreck. But, hey, Paula “Showkiller” Marshall deserved to finally have a show live long enough to see its 2nd birthday. You know the old saying. Seventh time’s a charm!
WORST WEEK – Viewers went out of their way to change the channel on this. Not that this site understands things like that.
ELEVENTH HOUR – Why, I guess Nina must be a RETENTIONISTA! Maybe we can rename the term in her honor? Retentioninanista. (Actually, the show was expensive and worthless.)
SAMANTHO WHO? – there is a quote from McPherson in a recent article in which he states it is not economically practical to have single-camera comedies that cost over $2 million an episode. I’m pretty sure he was talking about this. Since he didn’t, you know, cancel “Scrubs.” Even though “Scrubs,” you know, did a series finale. I’ve been told ABC was paying a lot of money for it, and though the producers tried to cut costs, they couldn’t cut $500,000 per ep. The fact that ABC requested a 500k cut per episode tells you everything you need to know…
MY NAME IS EARL – Expensive, a bad fit for the network it was on, owned by another network’s studio, a network chief who decidedly is not a fan… and the saddest cancellation of the season for me given the way it ended. Especially because it was really starting to look like it was going to get a 5th season. But it has nothing to do with Leno. NBC made a license fee offer to 20th. 20th rejected it. Maybe it was an insulting offer (maybe it wasn’t — the show’s lost audience every season it’s been on). They gambled and they lost. And who gets screwed? Current and future audiences who get to see the show end with “To be continued.” If TBS can’t afford to give it a curtain call, then 20th certainly owes the world a straight-to-DVD wrap-up movie. I’ll be first in line to buy it.
REAPER – If ABC Studios wanted better treatment, they should have made sure it ended up on ABC. ABC has certainly played favorites with a lot of their in-house stuff. Now they know how it feels.
BETTER OFF TED – Am told it got 13 episodes picked up on top of the 6. Has big fans within ABC, and is way too good a show to cancel after only a month. Besides, it more or less did what was asked of it. “Worst Week” did not. We still don’t understand that, I know. We probably never will.
Hey guys, (Bill and Robert)
I was wondering what you’re take on The CW’s move of Smallville could mean for the show’s future.
A lot of fans are speculating that because it was moved to Friday, it might not return for a 10th season.
Since it is their top-rated, scripted program, I just wanted to know what you guys thought of The CW’s decision as far as the numbers and data are concerned.
Re Numb3rs “almost cancelled”: If it gets to the point where the ratings for Numb3rs on Friday are no longer profitable, why not just more it to another night instead of cancelling it? It would likely do as well as any other crime drama they have.
CBS has the highest rated shows on Friday Nights, which includes Ghost Whisperer, so why would they cancel the hit television show?
Riff, I may not always agree with you, but I am always entertained. And that’s even more important
You seem to talk about shows on the CW. Why don’t you include shows on FX, TNT, and USA. I think some of the best shows on tv are on those networks.
doug, we don’t get the level of data for cable shows as we do for broadcast (even tiny CW). Sadly.