Alex Ben Block has a story on The Hollywood Reporter (in this case via Reuters) about the savvy move on NBC's part to keep Jay Leno and stick him in prime time five nights a week. The article suggests that all Leno needs to do is rate a 2.0 among adults 18-49 and he will be golden. But I don't think it has to do that well, and even being silver or bronze might be OK with NBC. We won't know until the fall when it actuall happens.
But the article goes into some detail about the advertising sales, and the differences in the way ads will be sold for Leno in primetime versus late night, and also addresses Leno's need to lower the age of its median viewer. NBC's dramas had a median age of 47, but the Tonight Show had a median age of 54.
It's an interesting article with more than a couple of numbers, I recommend reading the whole thing.
LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) – If there's something advertisers, analysts and even most critics agree on when discussing the fall's launch of "The Jay Leno Show" five nights a week, it's that NBC has made a savvy business move.
"Economically it makes a lot of sense, because certainly Jay is a lot cheaper to produce than the Monday-through-Friday primetime lineup," says Steve Sternberg, executive vp audience analysis for Interpublic's Magna Global, a division of global ad agency Interpublic, which buys TV advertising time from the major networks. "And if you think about it, they haven't had a major hit in a while at 10 p.m."
The cost of an hour drama typically approaches $3 million, while an episode of Leno is expected to be closer to $400,000 -- a weekly saving of $13 million at a time when NBC Universal and its parent, General Electric, have been working hard to cut costs. (NBC declined comment for this story.)
It’s worth a shot. I think most people should look at it that way. People complain about NBC giving up five hours a week of programming, but the few shows they had success with in that slot (Law and Order: SVU and um….umm….) can easily just be moved elsewhere. If they can make money and worry about providing 10 good hours of primetime TV first, then they can try and tackle fifteen.
NBC has said publicly they don’t expect Jay to beat new episodes of ABC and CBS dramas but they expect him to beat repeats. That may have just been posturing though, because I think the show is likely financially successful even if it loses to the repeats.
I will run some repeat averages for competing dramas before next fall when we jump into the Jay Leno Show stuff with both feet.
Two things made me chuckle:
Because all these years on The Tonight Show, they’ve dialed the laughter back intentionally!
Jay, he’s all about the humor that isn’t funny the next day. Or is it that he’s all about the humor that’s never funny?
“CBS procedural dramas as “CSI: Crime Scene Investigation” and “Law & Order: SVU” will win the slot at 10 p.m.”
that’s a typo right?
djm, perhaps more of a mistake/oversight than a typo, but wrong either way unless NBCU plans to air L&O:SVU at 10p on USA!
I don’t see Leno beating any program on CBS. Their shows are well produced and watchable more than once. Also seems as if some neilson viewers only know how to tune in to CBS and once on the channel seems to stay there consistantly. ABC repeats might not hold up but they might program Barbra Walters Specials or something if too big of a drop in viewers.
I predict a disaster of epic proportions.
First week, ratings close to 2.0……after that, big plunge.
I’m guessing by November, he’ll be lucky to get a 1.2 weekly average for his show….and by the end of the season, he’ll be around a 1.0 weekly average (or worse).
I also see affiliates openly revolting by January.
I’ll be curious to see how this experiment goes but I will not be watching the show. I gave up on Leno (and Letterman) a long time ago. They ceased to be funny and entertaining to me. Others folks like them, of course, and that’s fine — each to their own choices of fun.
Looks like Leno got a 4-year contract for this gig with an option by NBC to cancel after 2 years so, barring a huge cratering on this show or some unforeseen disaster, it looks like it is on for at least 2 years.
Advertisers will jump at the chance to reach the uneducated elderly!
if it is an epic fail.I wonder what they will do if their affilates go beserk.Thats Alot of airtime.
repeats?repeats of old/cancelled shows?
Maybe we will see LIFE on a better night finally?
Seinfield and Frasier making a comeback?
LMAO
LOL @ Melissa – if the Tonight Show can get a 1.3-1.4 NOW, why would it possibly sink to 1.0 when it’s on primetime. I mean, I get it – some of you dislike Jay. But making ridiculous statements like that is just silly, unless you have some solid thinking/reasoning behind why the show would plummet to a 1 in the demo. Geez.
Anyways, I personally think people will be surprised at how “reasonably” well Jay does at 10pm. I think his numbers will be very volatile day-to-day, but overall I think NBC is going to work hard to make this show a reasonable success. Hate to break it to y’all, but not EVERYONE is interested in watching CSI: or another repetitious crime show/drama every night.
@Anonymous, beacuse it’s going from the weak competition of late-night, to the primetime competition of not just ABC and CBS….but of all the various cable stations with original programming at 10 PM, as well as local news on various stations (including FOX affiliates).
I don’t think those who watch Jay at 11:30 because it’s a habit after watching the 11 local news, will choose to watch him earlier over other programming.
Anonymous, it’s also not THE TONIGHT SHOW, Jay keeps claiming that.
I think it will be interesting to see what the format of Leno’s new show will be like and how many elements from the Tonight Show he will bring along to it (Headlines, Jaywalking, etc.). All I know so far is from articles I’ve seen and I suspect those a blending of educated guesses, rumors (confirmed, denied, and unknown), and a work-in-progress, with a comedy emphasis (skits? games?) being the main consistency. I will be watching with interest to see how this new venture plays out in the ratings. I don’t currently watch him (haven’t for a long time) but I’ll be fair about it and sample a few episodes when he is back.
Is it true that NBC comitted to a 4 yr deal with Leno? I had heard that he was garanteed 1 full year and after that they would decide.
i don’t think the ratings will be that bad
the numbers will probably change according to whose a guest
Michael: NY Times, among other sources, reports it is a 4-year deal with a 2 year option. In other words, 2 years of the show, then a decision. Nothing I’ve found indicates what would be done if the show really fails in regards to a buyout on the first 2 years of the contract.
SW, in the trailer for Leno’s new show says all the comedy bits like Headlines and Jaywalking will be in the new show. There will still be an opening monologue and they’re adding a new comedy segment at the end of the show.
http://www.thefutoncritic.com/news.aspx?id=8076 (at the bottom)
Thanks SW. So that means a garantee from my household to watch ABC and CBS at 10pm for the next 2yrs. Watch CSI Miami and Tape Castle on Monday. Watch the Forgotten and Tape Nip/Tuck or Good wife on Tuesday. Watch Eastwick and Tape CSI NY on Wednesday. Watch The Mentalist and Tape Private Practice on Thursday. Watch Numb3rs on Fridays and either atape of Dollhouse or Ugly Betty, My slogan…..Anything But Leno at 10pm.
Good to know, Jon K. Thanks for the info.
I also will steer clear of NBC@ 10pm… Overall, I just dont find him that entertaining. (I will however be tuning in to watch the final tongiht show w/ Jay, just for posterity’s sake!)