When Orlando won to go up 3-1, I wondered if ABC should have started worrying about the TV ratings of the NBA Finals. Well, ABC's worst nightmare of a Lakers elimination was avoided, but now that the Cavaliers have been eliminated the much hoped for Kobe-LeBron battle will have to wait for another year.
We've had a lot of discussion on the site about what the TV ratings might be if the matchup was this or that, but now that the Lakers/Magic matchup is set it's time to throw down your guess for the average viewership for the entire NBA Finals series.
Our table of the historical NBA Finals ratings might be helpful.
As I have written many times, the number of games in the series is a very important factor in the final average, really the only one left much to chance now that the teams are known.
Unfortunately, I didn't have handy tables of game by game viewership numbers for the 2008 (although you are welcome to hunt around on our site for them) or 2007 series, but here are the overall and game by game averages for 2006 and 2005. Note that you can't calculate the series average exactly from these game averages because of the different telecast times.
2006 Miami v. Dallas
(overall avg. 12.972 million)
| Game | Avg. Viewers (million) |
| 1 | 11.514 |
| 2 | 12.410 |
| 3 | 12.246 |
| 4 | 11.561 |
| 5 | 14.318 |
| 6 | 15.710 |
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2005 San Antonio v. Detroit
(overall avg. 12.544 million)
| Game | Avg. Viewers (million) |
| 1 | 10.569 |
| 2 | 10.624 |
| 3 | 10.643 |
| 4 | 10.881 |
| 5 | 13.091 |
| 6 | 13.471 |
| 7 | 18.997 |
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This year's matchup isn't nearly as interesting to casual fans as last year's was (which averaged 14.91 million), so I'll guess 13 million average viewers.
Take your best shot at a guess in the comments.
Sorry, no prize like our Burn Notice contest, just bragging rights 
i have the Lakers in 7. game 7 should get 20 million. there are a lot lakers fans and they’ll obviously tune it. also, there’s a lot of lakers haters and they are confident the well-playing Magic can beat the lakers and nothing would thrill them more than seeing the hated kobe, phil jackson and lakers go down again. so i think a lot of the haters will tune in. off hand, i think the series will attract an average of around 14.5 million viewers.
It obviously depends on how many games the series goes. Knowing the Lakers they could easily win this series, but will probably make it tougher than it needs to be. I’ll say they win in 6, 13.2 million viewers.
I’ll recklessly overweight the one guaranteed NHL overlap and go 12.87.
Nba Playoff’s was breaking records left and right. Just Look at The Magic vs Boston Series and Magic vs Cavs Series. This will be a exciting series will go at least 6 games. I Think this Finals will have Higher Ratings Than Last Year. Last Year’s Finals Rating were very dissaponting and I Think This Year’s Finals will do better.
lakers in 5 and 15.5mil average
if cavs were at the final i would say 15mil average, with orlando vs lakers 12mil… if there is a game 7, over 20mil… too bad its not kobe vs lebron…
I think it’ll be close to last year’s Finals as the NBA has built pretty damn good momentum throughout the last couple of seasons. To elaborate on a commenter’s point above, there are a ton of Laker (read; Kobe) haters out there who want to see them fall again. To take it further, having watched the Cavs in this last series, there was no way that they would have avoided being swept (or even taken out in 5) if they took on the Lake Show. The Magic has the better total roster than Cleveland and will give the Lakers fits.
This series is going at least six and I figured the numbers will be just short of last year’s. Styles make fights and this is a pretty good example.
No matter what, I hope all us of commenting are going to watch. The sport should always be bigger than a hype machine.
I would’ve watched kobe/lebron. Now I’ll tune in into games 6 and 7 if it makes it that far and if it doesn’t intefere with hockey.
11.5 million unless it goes 7.
I will say a little over 15 million. Like I noted before the Lakers will be a big national draw.
14.3 million average
Yeah I think the Series will get 10.0, Better than last year’s 9.3!
as i said before three big story lines for this series. 1) kobe going for his fourth championship without shaq for the second time. 2) phil jackson going for his tenth championship…for the second time. 3) the coming out part for dwight howard. world take notice. this guy is the real deal.
average rating: 14.5
Magic in Six, and here are the reasons.
First Magic are 2-0 vs. the Lakers in the regular season, not that it really matters, but the Cavs were 3-6 vs. the Lakers, Celtics, Magic and the Nuggets.
Match up problems that I see for the Lakers are pretty similar to the match up problems i see with the Lakers. Dwight Howard may not be as dominate againist whoever the Cavs had at tryin to guard him, but the difference here is that Hedo and Rashard Lewis can both spread the floor. Thus, the same dilemma that the Cavs had the Lakers will have, who are you going to guard Lewis at the 4 position. You could have Pau, but than he could just go around him and that would force Pau to 25 feet away from the basket, which you know he’s not comfortable at. You could start Lamar Odom and matchup and put Ariza on the bench and have him come off the bench, that would serverly hurt their second unit though. Fisher and Bynum are not playing the best in the world right now, so if Orlando wins three of the matchups (PG, PF and C), than either Kobe ha to go insane or Ariza or Odom would have to be 20ppg scoreres, which I don’t see.
Remember the series when the Warriors beat the Mavs, it’s all about matchups, the Mavs had no answer for Baron Davis, Devin Harris and Jason Terry were too weak so he could just bully over them, and if they put Howard on him, than they could exploit another matchup. Also, having Dirk guarding Stephen Jackson was a disaster. There, they really only had 2 matchups advantages, and the Mavs pretty much got blown out that series.
oh final rating, probably 13 million, and it was the match up problems I see with the Cavs, not the Lakers.
12.879 Million
Uniden says:
“12.879 Million”
Mods!
Lakers will sweep the Magic hurting interest, I’m going with 11.2
I guarantee that if Orlando wins, Shaq will gloat for no legit reason.
There is a thing called the “Laker Affect”. Anytime the Lakers play in ‘The Finals’ ratings are traditionally higher than non-Laker finals w exception to MJ’s Bulls teams in 90′s. Cable ratings throughout WCF, ECF have been great, I expect trend to continue. My prediction: 10.5 average
Most TIRED phrase of 2009 playoff analysis: “It’s the match-ups!”