The late night wars are on, at least based on the early metered market ratings that measure the number of homes watching. There, Late Show with David Letterman charged back into the lead with a 3.5 preliminary rating. The Tonight Show and Conan pulled a 3.0 rating on Thursday night.
Fortunately for NBC, it's the age demo numbers that matter, and not total viewers. While final numbers for this week's late night shows won't be available until next Thursday, Conan thumped Dave in the age demos last week, but how much of that was fueled by the early interest when the show debuted is not clear -- it will get more clear when we see the data for this week next Thursday.
However, not wanting to wait around, NBC has sampled 21 of their markets for the demo, which, according to James Hibberd NBC believes is a good forecasting tool, and there, Conan Beat Dave last night among adults 18-49 with a 1.5 adults 18-49 rating to Letterman's .9 rating. Not the wide margins of last week, but still a significantly wide margin in the numbers hold up. The age demos drive advertising, and are the most meaningful.
The household numbers are not really all that meaningful in terms of how the shows are doing, at least in terms of ad sales and revenue. But, those household numbers are available earlier and make good fodder for news stories and, of course, blog posts even if they are not very meaningful. It looks like even with the household numbers cited here, NBC and Conan are besting CBS and Dave where it really matters.
Letterman isn’t all that funny to me, but I actually have started to slowly turn to his show since Conan took over for Jay. Both Jimmy’s still take the cake. And Fallon had a great show last night, good monologue and segments. He is usually funny but does have the occasional lame joke, but the crowd was really behind him last night.
What was Leno getting in the 18-49? About a 1.4? It’s not the big improvement NBC was expecting.
I can’t stand letterman or Leno. In different ways, they’re both aholes in my opinion. Letterman’s just a jerk… Leno’s more of a dbag. “have ya seen this? Have ya heard this?” ugh.
Conan and Fallon are great.
I think that Letterman beat Conan because of that feud that Letterman is having with Alaska Governor Sarah Palin which has been all over the news. So as soon as this goes away, I think Conan will be on top. Conan’s show last night was great!
Could this article be any more biased? How many times did he repeat how total viewers are insignificant or “didn’t really matter”?
Unless you are a network executive, total viewers “really matter” and Dave completely destroyed Conan twice this week… something Dave couldn’t do to Jay for over 8 months.
You can spin it all you want, but NBC isn’t happy about losing their leadership position to The Late Show. The undisputed leader in total viewers for the better part of 50 years (The Tonight Show) is becomming #2 very quickly. Not good, no matter how you try and spin it.
There has going to be a lot of back and forth between Conan and Dave in the next few months. In the overnights, Conan lost Tuesday, won Wednesday, and lost Thursday. I think a lot of it has to do with guests. Last night, Conan had Norm MacDonald and Jim Gaffigan. While I personally think Norm and Jim are hilarious when they’re with Conan, it was hard to compete with Letterman’s guests last night. Dave had Denzel Washington, the Jonas Brothers, and a Top 10 list featuring Regis Philbin.
I think there’s a pattern here. Conan lost Tuesday when Eddie Murphy was on his show (who used to be a huge star, but is sort of irrelevant now), versus Julia Roberts on Letterman. Conan won Wednesday when it was Dane Cook on his show, versus Kathy Griffin on Letterman. And Conan lost last night, I think in major part due to the starpower of Letterman’s guests. I think the best test of how Conan is really doing with viewers came on Wednesday’s show, because at least in my opinion, Kathy Griffin and Dane Cook are pretty equal in famous-ness.
Conan had much better guests in his first week, and it seems Letterman’s stepping up his game. Conan’s talent booker needs to do a better job, because in these early weeks when former Leno viewers are trying to pick between Conan and Dave, they’re going to flock to the person with bigger-name guests. Yes, Conan is killing in the 18-49 demos but he has to at least try to retain some of Leno’s viewers.
Also, is it just me or has Conan had a lot of guests on his show who aren’t promoting anything? Gwyneth didn’t have any movies coming out- she just talked about her website. They talked about Iron Man, which came out last year, and the fact that she’s filming Iron Man 2, which comes out next year. Norm doesn’t seem to be doing much of ANYTHING these days. Tom Hanks and Anna Friel both came on Conan AFTER their movies premiered.
Also, Letterman is benefitting a lot from his feud with Sarah Palin right now.
Actually, what I meant to say is that Conan beat Letterman on Wednesday, but he did it narrowly- his overnight rating was 3.1 versus Letterman’s 3.0. My point was that when the guests on both shows are equal in popularity, I think Conan or draw with Dave or edge him out in overnight ratings.
I know Jay spanked Dave for years, but Conan is going to need time to build that audience again. Sure Conan has his former crowd of fans from 12:30 carrying over, but on Late Night, Conan only ever pulled in 1/2 to 2/3 of the audience Jay did at 11:30. People don’t react well to change, so I think Conan deserves a few months to have a chance to win people before he gets written off. People of course are going to go over to Dave for awhile, because he’s what’s familiar. A lot of people have never seen Conan before. Conan is the kind of host that grows on you.
And as for this article being biased, demos are what matter to networks. Household ratings are important, but right now NBC cares more about the demos.
Tonight should be a good test for Conan. He has Jamie Foxx on his show and Letterman has Sandra Bullock on his. I think they’re both pretty famous.
Denzl Washington and the Jonas Brothers were on Letterman. That would provide an intereseting mix of viewers. The Sarah Palin saga can’t be hurting either which is why it is mind boggling that on the Today Show today she kept up her feud with Dave, claiming that she wouldn’t go on his show to boost his ratings. What does she think she IS doing by calling him out once again? (If I were her kid, the 14 year old that the joke was not about, I would be upset, not by the so called joke but by the fact that my parents would not let it go.) Governor Palin’sself promotion certainly isn’t protecting her children’s privacy. She admitted that she had not seen the “offensive” material in an interview I saw, that the radio personality told her about it. No wonder she keeps referencing the 14 year old. I saw the show and it was obvious from the jokes that they were (or are since they keep repeating them because she won’t let this go) about the 18 year old daughter. They may be at bit in bad taste, but most jokes directed at people are in somewhat bad taste, that is what makes them jokes. Maybe Dave ought to include a new bit: the Daily Apology. Might be funny.
Letterman’s joke were in poor taste and he should have apologized (more sincerely than he did), but of course Palin, as in everything she does, has to be over the top and turn a minor felony into a capital offense. My biggest complaint with Letterman is that he gave Palin a reason to spout off her mouth yet again. Good God, the lady needs to go back to Alaska, do her job as Governor, to the extent she can, and just take care of business. I am so tired of her and her nonsense.
Jim, I totally agree with you. I’m angry with Letterman for helping put this woman back in the spotlight again.
To that end, Letterman’s writers should have done their research to see which of her daughters was with her in NYC. I think that if Bristol had been with her, and that was clearly the daughter Dave made the joke about, Palin wouldn’t have been able spout off like she has. I mean, both Sarah and Bristol Palin have made Bristol into a public figure. Sarah Palin made Bristol’s pregnancy into a political issue and paraded her around at the RNC. Bristol has appeared by herself on the cover of People. Like it or not, Bristol is a public figure. She’s not just a politician’s kid in the way that Palin’s other children, or Sasha and Malia Obama are. Is a joke about someone’s kid classy? No, but Bristol is either almost of age, or is already of age (I can’t recall which), and has turned herself into a public figure.
I believe Dave when he said he thought Bristol was the one with Sarah Palin in NYC, not 14 year old Willow. Doesn’t change the fact that I’m still mad at him for giving Sarah Palin a platform again!
Basketball and Colbert. I’m sure Conan will win today.
It helps that David is in a heated feud with Sarah Palin right now. Sarah is unwittingly helping him with her appearance on the Today Show. Now we all will wnat to hear David’s reply. Although I could see a time when CBS may tell Mr.Letterman, enough.
i think the Lakers Magic games on ABC is hurting Conan’s numbers. like tuesday, the basketball game on ABC went into Conan’s show and he lost those two nights. i think it’s because conan’s viewers are young and many were watching the game that went into OT.
So Conan loses when basketball is on? That’s all you had to say in this post. I didn’t even watch Conan last night, because of the basketball game. Let’s not act like Dave is really beating him, because the NBA takes a big chunk from Conan. When the playoffs are over, Conan will win the vast majority of the nights.
what the hell was “comedian” norm mcdonald doing on conan last night? that fool defines the term unfunny.
The reason the NBA hurts Conan is because the audience that is marketed towards Conan also watches the NBA. It’s not science it’s really simple to figure out that older viewers are switching to Dave. But the thing that you have to understand is that Conan is their to attract new viewers…which he is doing.
That’s why Conan can lose in the overall ratings but still be in a better advertising position then Dave. it’s all about 18 – 49
Seriously, there are Jimmy Fallon fans?
And Norm McDonald is awesome.
Wow, this article’s pretty biased. I realize blogs aren’t necessarily bound to journalistic integrity, but still, the site’s been really neutral in the past. Why the sudden change? The fact is Letterman beat Conan in the household ratings, which the networks definitely do take notice of. We all know the key demographic of 18-49 is important, but why try to downplay the overall numbers?
Anyway, as for my opinion on the numbers, this doesn’t bode well for Conan. It’s only his second week, and he shouldn’t have leveled out like this until around week three or four. I have a hard time believing Letterman, who averaged a 1-1.1 in 18-49 back when his households were averaging in at 2.7, only got a .9 on a night where his household was a 3.5. I’m sure Conan’s still winning the age demo, and he’s certainly in no danger of going off the air (seriously people, don’t be so extreme, Conan’s not going anywhere), but NBC can’t be happy.
Name guest matter and especially if they are popular. I watched Letterman and enjoyed Denzel Washington and suprisingly The Jonas Brothers also. Dave has a repor with his guest and Conan to me at times doesn’t seem to be listening to his guest and is too quirky. So Letterman get my viewership at 11:35pm and Ferguson was hilarious last night also.