An article in today's NY Times not only contains some numbers about the early days of Conan O'Brien's Tonight Show, but also lots of excellent network PR spin!
One of the big questions facing Conan O’Brien was this: How can he succeed with the older “Tonight Show” viewers? The answer: by making them younger.
In Mr. O’Brien’s first month as host, the median age of “Tonight Show” viewers has fallen by a decade — to 45 from 55, a startling shift in such a short time. This audience composition means advertisers can now address almost exclusively young viewers on “Tonight,” and NBC is already contemplating a shift in how it sells the show.
In network television, where audiences tend to age up consistently, this is an eye-popping development. But the shift is not all good news for NBC. One way Mr. O’Brien has lowered the age is by losing many older viewers.
For TV advertising, we know that a younger audience is generally better, so thats good news, right?
“The Late Show With David Letterman” has already posted one week in which it drew more viewers than Mr. O’Brien, who reached the smallest audience in “Tonight” show history, just 3.3 million viewers, about two million fewer than Jay Leno’s average as host.
However, smaller audiences are worse, so that's bad news, right?
Sadly, neither of those quotes really gives enough information to be particularly useful.
(The next week Mr. O’Brien bounced back and edged past Mr. Letterman in total viewers, 3.7 million to 3.5 million. It was an unusual week as the death of Michael Jackson elevated a third competitor, “Nightline” on ABC, to most-watched status with 3.9 million viewers for its half-hour.)
Nightline is certainly making hay while the Jackson death frenzy shines, but I'd completely disregard weeks like last week as being predictive of anything though.
The numbers in late night have been tossed around with unusual aggression as NBC and CBS jockey for the spin’s high ground. If cash follows youth, as it often does in television, NBC may not care much.
“Conan’s performance is, honestly, extraordinary,” said Alan Wurtzel, the president for research at NBC, adding that the show had overwhelming strength in the youngest demographic, viewers 18 to 34. “These kinds of transitions are hard, especially with an iconic program like the ‘Tonight Show.’ ”
Now that's just some good, honest spin right there. Paycheck earned.
For its part, CBS argues that NBC’s claims about demographic superiority are strained, pointing to several weeks of declines for Mr. O’Brien in many audience groups. “Conan’s strength is almost entirely in men between 18 and 34,” said David F. Poltrack, the president for research at CBS. “We’re gaining in other categories.” Mr. Letterman, for example, is up more than 50 percent among viewers over 50.
Nicely parried Mr. Poltrack, except for that last line. Did you actually mention viewers over 50? Pardon me, but that sounds disturbingly like the bottom of a barrel being scraped.
On the sidelines, advertising executives are taking a skeptical approach. Generally they concede that dominance in younger viewers remains a big advantage, while also questioning whether “Tonight,” always the “big tent” in late night, risks becoming too much a niche show, as Mr. O’Brien seemingly thins the herd of older viewers.
“The idea of buying network TV was to get those big boxcar ratings,” said Steven J. Farella, the president of the media buying agency TargetCast TCM. “They don’t usually get boxcar numbers anymore, but we don’t need minivan numbers.”
I don't know if I've ever written about this, but have you ever seen a quote from an advertising buyer that wasn't skeptical? These guys are always negotiating, even to NY Times reporters!
The argument in marketing offices is likely to continue. “We really don’t know anything yet,” said Shari Anne Brill, the senior vice president and programming director for Carat USA. She said the preseason ad sales period, known as the upfront, had not yet taken place; and, she said, there is the unresolved question of how Mr. Leno will fare when he moves into the weeknight 10 p.m. period for NBC.
“He could potentially eat some of Mr. O’Brien’s young,” she said.
Winner, winner, chicken dinner! Best quote I've seen on the subject yet. And I completely agree, anyone making conclusions so early in the process is an idiot.
John Rash, senior vice president of the Campbell-Mithun agency, said, “All audiences have value, but the 18-to-49 audience has more value. You will make higher profits if you win with that audience.” He added, “You can still say you’re the No. 1 show if you are more profitable.”
That is exactly what NBC is doing. After one week the network sent out a hyperventilating press release declaring Mr. O’Brien the “new king of late night.”
True enough on the value of the 18-49 audience, but I agree that NBC's spin belies a bit of nervousness.
Mr. Poltrack scoffed that the claim was preposterously premature, pointing to falloffs in succeeding weeks among groups like women 18 to 49. In his first week, Mr. O’Brien was up in that group from Mr. Leno’s performance by 32 percent; by the third week, he was down 28 percent.
Mr. Poltrack said the gap had especially narrowed among viewers 35 to 54. “I think eventually we will win that category,” he said.
Poltrack, always ready with the numbers to prove his point (as opposed to NBC's Wurtzel, note the differences in their quotes). I like that. He also pulls the discussion towards things that CBS might win, even if they're losing everywhere else.
One NBC executive, who asked not to be identified when citing what is usually confidential information, said the show had been selling about 65 percent of the commercials during “Tonight” on its 18-to-49 rating, and 23 percent on viewers 25 to 54, and only 12 percent on the youngest category, viewers 18 to 34.
But Mr. O’Brien has been so overpowering in that last group that NBC can still be expected to shift more money toward that demographic — and to try to charge advertisers a premium for it, the executive said.
Of course this "executive", whoever it was, spoke on the direct orders of NBC PR. Were we born yesterday?
That may meet with resistance. Several ad agency executives said that young men could be reached more readily than in the past on Web sites and cable channels like Comedy Central and Spike, so networks deserve less of a premium for attracting them.
Some of that is probably negotiating talk. But Mr. Farella said he would worry about making “Tonight” look like a cable show.
“I don’t think that’s O.K.,” he said. “The goal of a broadcaster is still to be exactly that.”
Mr. Farella's dues in the skeptical ad agency club are completely paid up!
Mr. Rash said the changes in the “Tonight” audience were to be expected. “Jay Leno was younger than Johnny Carson, but he was from the same modern comedian construct, whereas Conan O’Brien is perfectly postmodern in his approach,” he said. “That may be alienating to older viewers. But he has to play to his strengths. Television and politics are the same: it’s a mistake to ignore your base.”
Hardly seems skeptical enough. Mr. Farella, please have a talk with Mr. Rash.
Mr. Wurtzel argued that Mr. O’Brien had no intention of turning “Tonight” into a niche show.
“I think we’re going to see growth,” he said. “The show has to calibrate. Conan is reshaping the profile of the show’s audience. It’s going according to plan.”
Calibrate? Reshaping? Vague and wish-washy. CBS's Poltrack would have thrown up some numbers, even as a smoke screen.
Both he and Mr. Poltrack offered one consistent analysis using exactly the same words: “Let’s see where we are in September.”
Indeed.
NBC’s current target audience and Conan’s audience are pretty much the same. (18-34 suburban males), this is why they are so happy about it to some extent.
I think Conan will still show a younger audience for a long time, until he tries to mature himself in his comedy, then we will see those median age number go up slowly.
However I am surprised that young women 18-49 are fleeing from Conan, what’s up with them, I know a lot of young women who like to watch Conan, maybe the ones that I know are just the minority of their group or what?
“‘Jay Leno was younger than Johnny Carson, but he was from the same modern comedian construct, whereas Conan O’Brien is perfectly postmodern in his approach,’ [Rash] said.”
This statement is entirely free of any (intentional) content, right?
I still love the fact all this mess that NBC started is because they were cheap and didn’t want to pay Conan more and didn’t want Leno leaving the network.
If I was Leno I woulds screw NBC and leave at the end of his new contract and take over the Late Show.
“One of the big questions facing Conan O’Brien was this: How can he succeed with the older “Tonight Show” viewers? The answer: ”
The answer: He couldn’t.
Conan The Barbarian reminds me of Howdy Doody. Letterman hasnt been funny since 1987. 11:30pm is now a dead zone.
The only question now is how will Leno do at 10pm.
My guess is that Conan’s audience will both age and shrink as the years go by. This country’s demographics will grind down the 18-34 audience, and the continuing shift to cable will whittle away the total viewer numbers.
But Conan will probably do okay because the broadcast networks will still aggregate audiences better than the cable competition, at least for the next decade or so.
I’m kind of in awe of this story. This has to be one of the great pieces of network spin of all-time.
This is like saying you’re thrilled that your grandmother died because your whole family just got younger!
This whole Leno situation (including the late night lineup changes) is simply a death throe of a major broadcast network. Within 5 years (maybe 3) the network just won’t “be”.
Combine death throes with inconsistencies and you get termination. Anyone else remember Zucker’s press release that NBC’s 8PM hour would be reality-only programming. That NEVER happened. Or, maybe, the “Thursday-expection” was expanded to all other nights too.
And, as for Zucker, NBC has nose-dived since he took over in so many ways. It’s astounding how someone can make such a mess and continue in his position.
A cable company, like Turner, should buy it, spread NBC’s programming “brands” into the combined cable networks, sell the stations to other broadcasters (cuz NBC still owns some really strong stations), then call it a day.
drac, you should calm yourself. Remember, quality is almost never exemplified by the Nielsen ratings. And NBC generally exhibits far higher quality than the other broadcast stations. The only problem they have is their stupid reality shows, the stubbornness of viewers to ignore NBC, and a lack of faith in their own quality dramas/comedies. Yea, bigger problems, but in the long run, I’d rather have the better shows than have the temporary attention of the fickle audience.
Bill/guys at TV by the numbers,
This isn’t exactly a comment on television or late night so much as a comment on your website, which I wanted to tell you is phenomenal. Your insight on what’s actually going on, and taking the totality of what’s happening in TV and applying it to your thoughts on each individual aspect is dead on and it’s genuinely appreciated. Although in the comments section I do see a lot of things said that are said without clear thought taken (there are great comments too), that is never the case with a post or response.
Thank you for putting together such a great site and such great articles for TV nerds and fanatics like me. I was introduced to this site about a month ago and basically, it feels like it was designed for me.
Thank you, and keep up writing these articles with beautiful ambiguity of your feelings on content, and incredible understanding of what information is real, and what information is being misunderstood.
Thanks Jeff!
Nice takedown
Even by NYT standards, it is a thumbucking column/article though. Bottom line is the last line:
Both he and Mr. Poltrack offered one consistent analysis using exactly the same words: “Let’s see where we are in September.”
I think that I would rather see where they are in October. Leno and NBC are sure to get an intial period of inflated ratings.
demonhog, I agree. This is such a big change for NBC that I think it will take quite some time to settle out.
Mark says: “However I am surprised that young women 18-49 are fleeing from Conan, what’s up with them, I know a lot of young women who like to watch Conan, maybe the ones that I know are just the minority of their group or what?”
As a woman within that age range, Conan holds no appeal to me. I religiously watched Carson, easily transitioned into Jay (he used to guest host lots during Carson’s last years), but I just can’t take to Conan. I find his style too immature to be entertaining. Since he is a “love him or hate him” kind of comedian, I doubt if many viewers who jumped ship after his first week will jump back onboard even if he matures. The only way I see him getting older viewers is to have his current viewers age right along with him. Interestingly, at 46, he is no spring chicken himself.
I’m 48, so I know I only have one more year before I am thrown into that demographic that NBC seems to think doesn’t matter anymore. I’ve gotta say, when I read NBC’s spin that only young viewers count, it ticks me off. Don’t advertisers realize how much wealth is controlled by older viewers? Anyway, after many, many years of enjoying late night television, I’ve finally given it up for good. But, I will be happy to see Jay again when he returns this fall.
Love your website! Thanks!
Wow, that was a pretty intense PR battle. Thanks for posting. Honestly, CBS can’t be displeased since they’re finally catching up with the Tonight Show in SOME categories (older and overall viewers), but if we’re to measure the “winner” by who makes a bigger profit, we’ll probably never know who the “winner” is. I mean, do they release profit numbers?
It should not surprise anyone who has watched Conan, just one time, as to why the younger male audience is his…his humor is that of an immature boy…the Bart Simpsons of this world (whom he wrote for) love him. I’m surprised he isn’t picking his nose…he would if he could I’m sure, as part of his routine. Since women mature sooner than men it is no wonder the females run and don’t walk away from this ridiculous child like entertainer. Late night has hit the wall…I just wonder how long it will take NBC to realize what a sorry choice they made?
“Immature boy”? I’d really like to hear something to support that claim. People who don’t like Conan like to throw “immature” around a lot, and it pretty much makes no sense to me.
This demographic shift raises a question I have had for a long time. If demographics are the most important measurement of viewership, and older viewers are not lucrative, even in large numbers, then how could The Tonight Show, with its unusually high median viewer age, have been the most profitable show on NBC for all these years? I understand that it is relatively inexpensive to produce, but advertisers must still have been paying a lot of money to have their commercials on that show.
I’m a 21 yr old woman and I watch conan almost every night. Conan probably appeals to people my age more because we’re still young enough to enjoy being silly or as others see it immature. Letterman seems like the opposite to me, he always seems cranky to me, as if he stopped enjoying his job 10 yrs ago. And in my opinion conans interviewing style makes up for his silly comedy, that’s when you see how intelligent he can be when he wants.
And to the woman who wondered why viewers my age are so valued … You have more money, but you most likely also have a mortgage, children, and credit card debt. I have none of those so nearly all my income is disposable.