I enjoy seeing the weekly ratings for the Tonight Show, The Late Show and Nightline since Conan O'Brien took over the Tonight Show, before the switch I never much cared about them because they were boringly repetitive. Same with our readers, judging by the number of page views those posts have received.
Grasping for something to write about in the dog days of summer, the TV media has set upon the late night battle with a vengeance. I'd decided to let it all go until sometime this fall to see how things settled out, but the wacky idea that NBC would move local news to 10pm and put Jay Leno on at 10:30pm (originated from an ex-NBC employee via the Washington Post) made me decide write something now about all the current silliness.
It's Way Too Early To Draw Any Conclusions About Conan's Tonight Show!
- It's summer - low broadcast viewership everywhere. Until people are watching broadcast again in September, predicting the future on summer numbers is silly.
- Michael Jackson's death - gave Nightline a big boost, as well as plenty of cable and syndicated late night options. That won't last forever (although it seems like it might).
- Jay Leno moving to 10pm - is going to scramble everything on broadcast after 10pm, and while many think Jay@10 is a negative for Conan, I'm adopting a wait and see attitude. Regardless, it's a huge change with unknown effects.
These things are not going to happen:
NBC is not going to move Leno back to 11:35 this season. No chance. Whatever the downside of keeping Leno at 10 and Conan at 11:35, a move this season would be far worse. Next season anything can happen.
NBC is not going to give the 10-10:30 period to local affiliates and put Jay @10:30. First of all, it would be a huge logistical change for the local affiliates. Second, that kind of move is very difficult to reverse. They can take Jay out of 10pm in future seasons and put dramas back in, but not if they've already given it back to the local affiliates.
Could Conan ultimately prove to be a failure on the Tonight Show? Sure. I'm not predicting anything at this point. I'll wait to do that sometime this fall when the tea leaves are a lot clearer.
You’re right to withhold a verdict until the fall. However, one important factor you’ve omitted in your analysis is the poor quality of Conan’s Tonight Show. I was a fan of his performance on Late Night but he has been woefully miscast as the host of a big tent show. You can see the terror in his eyes and it’s off-putting. I have never been a big fan of Letterman but I am watching him now. I’m not alone, apparently.
Conan is great!
I agree as well that this story has a long way to go – late night is a true marathon, and Conan certainly has the talent to turn things around.
I brought up this point in another thread, but thought it would pertain here as well:
It’s very interesting to compare Conan’s move to the very similar transition Letterman made in ’93. David Letterman was saddled with going to a network with a horrible record in late night and spotty station clearances. and made the transition look easy – the show was firing on all cylinders right out of the gate. Sure, Leno came back to take the lead after a few years, but Dave should be given an enormous amount of credit for his graceful move to 11:30, especially compared with the way we’ve seen Conan handling it.
I don’t think Conan has terror in his eyes, he seems confident to me. But his personality isn’t big enough to fill that big stage. Also, it’s clear he’s much more NY and much less LA.
Conan’s problem is he’s a clown, not a ringleader, and clowns are only as good as their last joke.
Bill, it is too early to deliver a verdict but I think that what’s surprising everyone is this-EVERYONE predicted Conan would do better than Jay among 18-49s. NOBODY was worried about the 18-49s. But for the past few weeks, Conan’s been doing worse than Jay in the 18-49s.
What were Jay’s 18-49′s a year ago?
Bill,
thanks for the article. I have to admit that while this transition has been tough on Conan it has been good for you guys. Good points in your piece.
As for Conan’s terror, I think it’s clearly from pressure. Letterman doesn’t have any pressure. He was second place forever and never at risk of losing his job. He’s playing with house money.
Bill, how much of a leash do you think NBC would give Conan? You mention at least one year is definite, but do you think they would let him fulfill his contract or would that be pushing it if the ratings are still bad? I think letting him fulfill his contract would be good PR, but then again maybe the loss in advertiser revenue would be too much for NBC. Thanks for the article.
I’m a young person and I find Conan to be a little too hyper for me. I’m giving him a few more months to calm down before I check back in on his show.
In the meantime, I’m perfectly happy watching The Daily Show and The Colbert Report. I think that’s Conan’s main competition among young people, not Letterman.
Am I the only one thinking that Conan & Jimmy is more of a move for the future, rather than right now?
Both shows have a huge online presence, & attract a far younger audience, the kind of audience that will still be within the attractive demo’s for a few years, as well as being more attractive to the even younger people who will be turning into 18 years olds in the near future.
However, I agree with Rose, the Daily Show/Colbert is Conan’s main competition for that audience – hence why the online presence is so important.
I like Conan, but he’s no Leno.
I completely agree with Tyler. I personally don’t think NBC thought Conan would match Jay in the ratings, rather I think they were simply scared of losing him since he was shopping around for offers from other networks. Letterman will most likely retire at the end of his new five-year contract, and this could be an opportunity for Conan and Jimmy to build a core audience before attracting a wider audience once Letterman is gone.
And I think it’s ridiculous to spell doom for Conan right now. Although Letterman is narrowing the gap, The Tonight Show is still bringing in the money, and in the end, that’s what matters to NBC.
I think the Jay Leno Show might actually be a good thing for Conan since the focus and pressure will be on Jay come September, and that should help him ease into his role as the host of an iconic show.
Stewart and Colbert will compete with Conan’s audience, but will never win, since I don’t think cable stands a chance against a network, even if it is NBC.
I cannot even remember the last time I saw their shows. It might be a decade even. Bores me to tears.
My boyfriend and I were watching Conan the other night and trying to figure out why he’s so awkward in interviews – he’s never able to make the interview feel conversational! It always seems like he’s very painfully cueing the guest as to what anecdote they should tell next. My boyfriend pointed out that he has a cheat sheet in front of him and is constantly looking at it to see what question he should ask next – sometimes before the guest has even stopped talking! Look for it… as the guest finishes up their story they cut to a two-shot – Conan is laughing at the guest’s joke – and his eyes are focused down… on a piece of paper on his desk. It feels VERY uncomfortable.
Leno and Fallon are the only likable late night talent. Letterman is almost senile acting and so emensly not funny its unbareable…. and Conan? Hes just downright obnoxious and annoying. The others. I really havent even seen their shows.
I am not a late night tv fan really, but when I do watch, I am the key demo for the networks 18-49 … and I have to say a couple of things: 1) Conan is much more funny and interesting and REAL than Jay ever could be 2)I tune into Conan once in awhile and stay for awhile; I never ever tuned into Leno and stayed — insult to my intelligence 3) I always chose Dave over any of the others, but Conan has me before Dave if and when I sporadically check out late night 4) NBC — the network — is abysmally bad — failing in every time period/day/zone/genre — the people running NBC have no vision, no imagination 5) We should be, everyone should be discussing Zucker’s firing and necessary long overdue demise, not Conan’s!!!!!
Kenneth hit the nail on the head. Conan is a clown, not a ringleader. Everybody loves a clown but not every night and that’s what is going wrong with the Tonight Show. That is also why Dave hasn’t soared to the top as he too is a clown, just an old one. People like Johnny, Jay, Steve and Jack were true ringmasters, top in their craft. I’m not putting Conan down as even ringmasters need clowns or the show doesn’t go on.
Jack, I couldn’t have said it better
For those who’ve believed that somehow Conan should’ve come in and mastered the Tonight Show instantly, well I’m sorry, that’s insane. You have to remember that Dave actually guest hosted the Tonight Show under Johnny Carson many times, even before he moved to New York and became the host of Late Night. Letterman was already used to a big stage when he left NBC for CBS and started the Late Show. Conan didn’t do that and as a result he’s essentially starting cold. He has to figure out how to balance out what made him funny at 12:30 with the audience he has at 11:30. If he’s given time he’ll do that–remember Leno didn’t hit his stride with the Tonight Show until he got the Hugh Grant interview, and that was a bit into his run.
I agree with Meli.
It’s almost impossible to think that Conan would match Leno’s ratings in his first year. Give the poor guy some time before readying and carving out his tombstone!
Uh. Who cares? Get lives people. There is MUCH MUCH more to life than TV.