I saw where David Goyer, the man who wrote The Dark Knight and along with Brannon Braga brings Flash Forward (based on a book by Robert J. Sawyer) to ABC said something like “We’d be thrilled with half the rabid fan base of Lost,” at the TCA press tour presentation.
I expect Flash Forward will premiere pretty well in the Thursday at 8pm tim eslot. Personally, I’m looking forward to Flash Forward more than any other hour long scripted drama debuting in the fall, but I have not seen the pilot yet.
Flash Forward doesn’t need to open as strong as The Dark Knight did at the box office, and if half the rabid fan base of Lost watches at the same time, that might work out, but it’ll need more than half the viewers Lost actually got last year. Half of season one and season two viewers might work out, but having only half the viewers Lost had by season five would put Flash Forward on very shaky ratings ground.
Marc Guggenheim, who was an executive producer with Eli Stone is the executive producer of Flash Forward. Understandably, Marc’s experience with Eli Stone left him somewhat jaded when it comes to any obsession over ratings. I don’t agree with Marc’s take on ratings entirely, but I think he offers some meaningful perspectives. I’ve seen him on the record about not loving the industry’s obsession with ratings, to the point where people obsess over preliminary overnight ratings that don’t even take DVR viewing into account!
"Network television is in the throes of a major evolution, or devolution, or whatever you want to call it. But it's a crisis, really. And the crisis rises from the fact that people have choices in how they consume their product,” said Guggenheim in an interview with Newsarama.
[…]
"With serialized shows, there are a lot of people who are waiting for the DVD box set to come out," Guggenheim said. "Imagine if comic book companies didn't pay attention to how many trades they were publishing, but rather only paid attention to month-to-month sales," Guggenheim said. "In fact, I'll go you one better. Not even month-to-month sales. They're only paying attention to how Amazing Spider-Man sold on the Wednesday it came out as opposed to the following Thursday, Friday or Saturday, right? So that's the problem. You have a lot of people who are either 'waiting for the trade' or picking up their comic book on Thursday, Friday or Saturday."
[…]
"But there's another factor here, which is perception," Guggenheim pointed out. "Nielsen is the company that has the monopoly, and I use that in the most pejorative sense, has a monopoly on reporting ratings. Nielsen comes out with preliminary ratings the very next morning. They're called overnights for that reason. That's the first data point that you get. And that is purely live viewing on the first night – no DVRs, no iTunes, no internet. Then over the course of the new two to three weeks, additional data comes in, and it includes internet and it includes DVRs. But here's the problem. Those overnights have set the tone. Those overnights have created the perception."
Hmmmm. I suppose Marc must conclude TV by the Numbers is part of the problem, not part of the solution.
There may be something to it in the sense that we perpetuate the reality (rather than the myth) that advertising is bought and sold based on viewing and while we don’t see the C+3 (commercial ratings, as opposed to program ratings, live + plus 3 days worth of DVR viewing) the L+SD preliminary overnight numbers have been an excellent proxy in most cases of the Live+7 (week’s worth of DVR program ratings).
I could learn a ton from Mr. Guggenheim, and there’s probably very little I can teach him. But there’s this: DVR ratings are included in the preliminary overnight numbers – and should be much more indicative of the Live+7 number for Flash Forward than they were with Eli Stone. Generally speaking 8pm, when Flash Forward will air, and 9pm shows have a much higher percentage of the week’s DVR viewing occur on the same night than shows that run at 10pm like Eli Stone did.
Almost all Nielsen numbers that are regularly cited include at least the same night DVR viewing. The preliminary overnight numbers, as well as the final numbers that come out later in the day and are used in the weekly reporting all include DVR viewing up to 3am after the show aired. The only time we even ever bother to look at the purely live numbers at all is when calculating total DVR viewing.
Let’s take a look at Lost’s numbers for season five. They include a rerun or two, and reruns are DVRd much less, but it still makes for a good indicator. Lost averaged 7.941M live viewers, 9.525M live+SD viewers and 11.279M live+7 viewers. That means on average, including a rerun or two that drag the average down, Lost averaged 3.338M DVR viewers per airing. BUT, 1.584M of those watched on DVR the same night the show aired.
Factoring out the rerun or two, typically half of Lost’s weekly DVR viewing occurred the same night the show aired and would have been included both in the preliminary overnight numbers, and the final weekly numbers.
Those percentages looked much, much different for Eli Stone. These numbers only include airings between 9/22/08 and 5/20/2009, so the final episodes of Eli Stone that aired in the summer are not included here. Eli Stone averaged 5.883M live viewers, 6.177M live+SD viewers, and 7.088M live+7 viewers. That’s 1.205M weekly DVR viewers on average with only 294,000 of them or 24.4 percent watching the same night. Things change all the time, but it’s reasonable to conclude that the % of DVR viewing for Flash Forward that is counted the night the show airs should track much more closely with Lost than with Eli Stone.
The numbers that really matter the most for Lost last season are its adults 18-49 ratings. Of all the ABC shows, Lost experienced a bigger boost on a percentage basis due to DVR viewing than any of them. Some of that is because it aired very few in-slot repeats, vs. say, Grey’s Anatomy, which aired more in-slot reruns during the season and are counted in the season totals I’m looking at. And even with the repeats, Grey’s had the better overall 18-49 numbers for the season with Live, L+SD and L+7.
Lost averaged a 3.3 adults 18-49 rating with live viewers, when same day DVR viewing was factored in that shot up to a 4.2 rating, and when a full week’s worth of DVR viewing was counted in, it went up to a 5.2 rating. That’s a huge increase over live viewing – 55 percent, but compared to the live+SD numbers the increase was 22 percent.
Some shows with lower ratings like Dollhouse might do better on iTunes, Hulu, etc than others. And DVD sales do matter. We don’t, for example, know how well Dollhouse sold yet during its first week (we’ll see those numbers Monday night or Tuesday) but we do have enough data already to figure it probably didn’t sell anywhere near as well as True Blood, which sold over 500,000 copies in its first week.
Lost also gets a ton of online viewing, and though its DVDs are released late in the year in early December, has huge DVD sales, even on an annual level . Last year it sold over $30 million worth of DVDs in just the last few weeks of 2008.
One thing I’d like Mr. Guggenheim to consider is that it’s not the ratings themselves, regardless of when they’re released, or that they’re released by a company with a monopoly on ratings that create the perceptions. A show’s ratings don’t occur in a vacuum. What creates the perception is relative performance when compared to other shows!
We know how Lost did in the past. We know how Eli Stone did when it went head-to-head with CSI: NY. More importantly now for Marc, we’ll know how Flash Forward compares to Survivor, and Bones and Parks & Recreation (and ok, The Vampire Diaries). We’ll know how it compares to Grey’s Anatomy and how it’s doing relative to the rest of ABC’s schedule.
We’ll know that pretty much after the first episode, and while we won’t know online viewing, or the full DVR viewing or DVD potential yet, we’ll have a pretty good view of how the show is doing. And we won’t need any of that other stuff to form a very valid perception.
We don’t need any new data to know that Flash Forward needs to do better than Ugly Betty. It won’t do that if it’s only finding half of Lost’s season five viewing audience. Ugly Betty had a seasonal average of a 2.25 adults 18-49 rating for live+SD viewing (the 2.25 are 18-49 ratings points out to hundredths, not millions of viewers). If it doesn’t do better than that, ABC isn’t going to be thrilled.
Again, I think Flash Foward will come out of the gate strong. But I haven’t seen the pilot yet, so I can’t offer any opinions on the show. ABC is promoting the hell out of it though, so hopefully it premieres with better than a 3.0 rating with adults 18-49. Especially with serialized shows it’s necessary to come out of the gate strong these days and then hang on to as many viewers as possible.
Sure, that’s just a perception, but the old adage of perception is reality didn’t get to be a cliché for nothing. If Flash Forward was airing Fridays, I’d claim all bets are off. Obviously, my perception was not reality when it came to Dollhouse! But Flash Forward is a well-promoted show airing on Thursdays, the most important night of the week advertising-wise and not on Fridays, where magic can still happen even when the ratings aren’t magical.
The Flash Forward clip looked soooo boring.
I doubt any of those people have what it takes to make something good. Of course that’s *my* good – they just want ratings. And who knows, perhaps they’ll get them *g*
I saw the first act during the upfront presentation and wasn’t overly impressed, but later I saw an extended preview that hooked me. It’s still not my typical show, so I’m not sure if I’ll stick around long term, but I was definitely disappointed that I didn’t get to see the pilot in June when I thought I was going to have the chance to.
I did find it interesting that Goyer said most of the mysteries will be wrapped up at the end of season one, but they need three seasons to tell the story. I wonder how that will really work. The flash forward is to April 29, 2010 (which just happens to be the day May sweeps start
), so most of it should be wrapped up by then, but I guess they can stretch out over two seasons the question of what caused the flash forward.
I’m more excited about the premiere of Flash Forward than any show since Lost debuted. They can count on my viewership, even if Nielsen’s sampling doesn’t capture it.
Robert, I’m not sure how you got from a to b. In this article you offer all this evidence that proves exactly what Marc was saying and then somehow come to the opposite conclusion. When you look at Eli Stone’s over night numbers, or other 10 o’clock (11e) shows, they capture a much smaller percentage of the actual viewers over the week. But the Overnight numbers get much more press than weekly numbers. The show is perceived to be doing worse than it actually is. And if you look at the dvd numbers that you post on this site, the sales vary wildly from the ratings. Shows like Lost get beat in the ratings by crime procedurals like csi or ncis, but it crushes those shows in dvd/blu-ray sales. The takeaway from Marc Guggenheim’s comments remains true. Too often a shows performance is judged on small pieces of data sampling compiled by one source that doesn’t take into consideration all the ways in which it can be profitable.
Quinn, I think you missed the point. As Robert said, you have to compare how a show is doing relative to other shows. Eli Stone was doing just as poorly after 7 days as it was live, when you compare it to all the other shows’ Live+7 ratings. So it doesn’t really matter which numbers get the press.
And you have to remember that the press doesn’t have access to most of the data outside of the ratings. If the networks wanted the media to take other things into consideration (things that they themselves obviously are) they need to actually share numbers for all the other factors. All the media can do is report on what is available.
Well, ABC certainly is pimping it to death so if it doesn’t deliver it won’t be from lack of trying on their part. It’s the only new ABC show I’ve seen any promos for on the network so far, save for the occasional one for Cougar Town. It’s like they’re ignoring all their other pilots.
Lost sells more DVDs than NCIS, but NCIS a lot more in syndication revenue, a bigger revenue source than DVDs for now. Serial shows get dinged in syndication. I too am looking forward to Flash Forward, but if it does worse than Ugly Betty (or only as well), it’s not going to last, certainly not with that cast ($$). I hope that doesn’t happen, but if it does, I don’t think the judgment will be “unfair”, and I don’t believe we’ll need more than a month or so of data to figure out what’s going on.
And for all of LOST’s DVD sales, it was also ABC’s fourth highest rated show with adults 18-49 trailing only Desperate Housewives, Grey’s and one of the flavors of Dancing With the Stars.
I don’t view Marc’s comments as either entirely true or entirely false. My opinion is that in almost (but not) all circumstances, you can tell a lot from a little bit of data. But ABC had a lot of data to consider when Eli Stone was canceled, not just the overnight numbers. Its overnight ratings weren’t good, but neither were its final ratings, or its live plus seven DVR ratings. People, including producers of shows, will cite being #1 on iTunes, but at least last season, 25,000 downloads would get you to number one so its still small stakes, especially for big budget shows.
I don’t buy into the notion that the perception about ratings impacts viewer behavior. Most viewers, even of shows that struggle in the ratings, don’t care about the ratings at all, so I don’t think the ratings impact viewer perceptions. They will impact network perceptions, and that might impact promotion, time-slot, etc, but I doubt that will change.
I think Marc’s point of view will go over well with the fans of shows who DO care about ratings, especially lower rated shows. In fact, I think they’ll pretty much hang on Marc’s every word, because like Marc, the decisions wind up seeming so unfair to them. That’s an area where I disagree. I don’t think it is unfair given the landscape. But either way, influencing fans who do care about ratings doesn’t matter much in terms of changing things.
As long as advertising is the primary revenue driver, it’s the advertisers Marc has to influence, not the networks or the fans. The ad buyers are very data driven. You could have multiple sources of data for that, but even if Nielsen didn’t hold a defacto monopoly, it wouldn’t change advertisers’ desire to look at the numbers.
The extended preview was really good. If the show is around that quality, it’ll probably be the best new series this season. I saw previews for most of the other dramas as well and nothing touched this one.
FlashForward is the most hyped show of the new season. It’ll do just fine. It’s a quality show like Modern Family that I worry for.
Flash Forward looks pretty good, but doesnt look like it could last long.
I just looked up the novel in Wikipedia. The concept of the novel is mildly interesting to me, since there is an immortality project involved (which apparently has nothing to do with the flash forward which is an effect of the Large Hadron Collider and a cosmic ray pulse.) Also the flash forward in the novel is 21 years, while the one in the TV show is six months.
I also checked out the promo trailer on Youtube. I can’t tell from that whether it will be any good or not, but I suspect since ninety percent of the novel is about the human consequences of the flash forward that the series is going to have a hard time expending three seasons telling the stories AND keeping them interesting. In short, this isn’t a science fiction show, it’s a human interest series which means it will look like a bunch of other shows crammed into one.
Pass. Although I liked seeing Sonya Walger again, an alumni from TSCC.
Also checked out Fox’s “Human Target” promo while on Youtube. That was fun, especially since Tricia Helfer is in the first episode apparently. The fellow who played Olivia’s dead FBI boyfriend on Fringe is the lead character. Might be a fun show. Looks more interesting than the Rick Springfield original of some years back.
Sounds alittle like a Jericho-ish type show.
I read it was originally pitched to cable, HBO, i think.
What else is there to look forward to of all the new shows.
V premieres in Winter only 13 episodes.
NCIS LA, I’ll watch but still another procedural, and i watch alot of police procedurals.
I might watch Mercy, because weak slot Weds 8pm.
More reality and Jay Leno created less scripted shows.
I hope Flash Forward succeeds. It’s a drama that’s not medical or crime-related, so that’s always a plus in my book, and I’m a huge fan of Lost so of course I’m interested.
The thing is, the “half of the rabid Lost fanbase” would be in addition to any new viewers that this series may draw. I mean, not everyone who’s going to watch Flash Forward is a Lost fan. I imagine quite a few of them would be, but there will be people who gave up on Lost after a season or two as well as people not interested in Lost at all tuning in as well.
It seems to be in the same ballpark as Fringe, so hopefully, like Fringe, it does well and turns out to be a pleasant surprise.
P.S. At least they didn’t make the terrible mistake of putting Flash Forward in the post-Lost timeslot. That thing is a death trap.
Then again, we don’t know what moves will happen in the midseason, when Lost returns, so…
I’m looking forward to Flash Forward. Thursday’s will be great with Flash Forward and Fringe. I’ve been looking for a reason to stop watching CSI live on thursday and now I finally have one.
As far as ratings. I think that ABC desperately needs this show to succeed, especially with males. Isn’t Lost the only show on ABC that draws any sizeable male audience? Please correct me if I’m wrong because Lost, and I suppose Flash Forward, are the only shows I watch on ABC. With Lost ending, ABC could lose a lot of males and completely turn into the broadcast version of Lifetime.
Forgot to say earlier that putting any new show after Lost will almost always be a losing proposition IMO. That kind of timeslot has very high expectations and new shows, no matter how good, need time to build because almost none of them are hits right out of the gate. ABC would do so much better off to put an established show after Lost instead, one that already has some sort of built in audience already.
I think Flash Forward will be this year’s The Nine – heavily hyped and critically favored but ultimately too muddled and not enough of a premise to carry on an hour-long show each week. But then, V is the show I’m looking forward to, not this show.
FLASH FORWARD LOOKS AWESOME!!!!
Nobody expected Lost to be as big as it was, but the same is true of Desperate Housewives, Grey’s Anatomy and DWTS, all of which busted out of the gates in 2004/2005. That’s the point – 90% of the time, you really don’t know what is going to hit and what won’t.
American Idol, for instance, opened its run in 2000 with a a mediocre 8 million viewers.
Private Practice opened its run in 2007 with 16 million viewers. Now, the only reason it’s still alive is because it got shoved post-GA.
Will FF be a hit? Nobody will know until the Friday morning after it premieres, and even then not really until January or February of 2010.
Doug, I agree you won’t really know if it is a hit until the winter. However, Lost premiered to over 18 million, DH premiere had over 21 million, Grey’s to over 16 million. That didn’t mean they were going to be hits, but I think with the scripted shows you generally get an idea of what’s possible right out of the gate.
Dissenters are certainly welcome to to take the wayback machine to the days when hardly anyone was watching cable in 1982, when the worst performing broadcast network shows still had huge “share” and bring up the Cheers premiere
Or the Seinfeld pilot in July 1989…
Private Practice is a bit of an odd case due to the WGA strike. And it’s alive not just because it got shoved post-GA, but because it had decent (not huge) demo performance once it was shoved post-GA. If it had a 2.0 w/18-49 instead of a ~3.0, I don’t think it would be around to do battle with The Mentalist…
Sorry but I have to disagree with you, Robert. Yes, there are those shows that strike a cord from the beginning but they’re rare, particularly because timeshifting makes getting big live numbers so much harder these days – DH, Grey’s, etc. are the exceptions. But think about something like House, which got bad ratings its first season and was almost cancelled till word of mouth kicked in next season and its viewership jumped from 6 million to something like 17 million at one point. Same with Seinfeld which got terrible ratings at first till word spread around. Some shows need a little more TLC from the networks to reach the most audience they can and the network has to believe in them and not pull the plug right away.
But with a post-Lost timeslot, it’s clear that ABC has high expectations and isn’t going to be very patient if FF doesn’t deliver immediately, though they might be a tad more patient with it than other pilots because it seems to be the network’s “favorite child” this fall (the show they’ll bend over backwards to make work even if ratings keep sliding…see Alias or Castle).
I’m very excited about “Flashfoward”, but the show i think will be more like ABC’s new “LOST” is the mid-season replacement “V”. But both shows look very good to stick around for.