Once again, I’m sure that Conan will get his act together, but I think it’s safe to say his debut has been disappointing. Just look at his numbers.

You also have to give Conan a break because perhaps his greatest comedic gift is coming out with his Howdy Doody face, putting on a sweet smile and then doing really foul stuff. And the move to 11:30 cost him the masturbating bear and the duck who eats his own shit and that whole world.

So give the man a little patience, he’s fighting with one hand tied behind his back until he figures out how to replace that end of the spectrum.

Conan will add new routines and drop old ones and maybe revamp the writing staff and at some point, when it doesn’t feel desperate, they’ll adjust the look. And then we’ll see. It would be crazy to bail on Conan the first year. The only thing is, we’re talking about NBC, so crazy isn’t out of the question.

And as good as these three guys are as hosts, when you talk about the quality of the writing, the thing you have to concede at the outset is that none of these guys have a staff in the league of The Daily Show or The Colbert Report. If you don’t care about seeing celebrities and just want late-night comedy, you don’t even look at the broadcast networks.

I think Conan’s show is about 30% more funny than his New York gig. I’m not liking how Andy fits in, but I like that he’s back. His monologue is definitely the best there is if you’re a goofball like myself.

I think that demographics will prevail, not total viewers. 50 and 60 year olds aren’t buying the things advertised on Letterman.

Oh and Jay’s new show? Talk about beating his “best bits” into the ground. For the love of God try something new.

Could not agree more.

“A fact that surprised me when I heard it: I still think of Conan as the goofy newcomer, but he’s the oldest person to take over the Tonight Show by four years. Jay was 42 when he started; Johnny was really young. Conan’s already had a great run as a host, but the flip side of that is, he has to start worrying about feeling like he still has new things to say.”

Yeah, but he’s also the same age Letterman was when he got the Late Show. Although then again, he also hosted Late Night longer than Letterman. So yeah you’re right, Conan’s old.

To me, it’s about moving forward with the material and leaning less on ancient bits like The Year 3000. But the feel of the show should go back and recapture some of the warmth and informality of his old setting. It just doesn’t work to open with this ice-blue and art-deco-wood set and then have Howdy Doody walk out. Conan needs something that goes with his stupid silly comic style.

A fact that surprised me when I heard it: I still think of Conan as the goofy newcomer, but he’s the oldest person to take over the Tonight Show by four years. Jay was 42 when he started; Johnny was really young. Conan’s already had a great run as a host, but the flip side of that is, he has to start worrying about feeling like he still has new things to say.

And I do think that Jay’s show will be profitable, yet lower the overall numbers. But I’m just registering my prediction, I don’t need to beat anyone into believing that.

Ferguson manages to tie (or edge out by an insignificant amount) Fallon when their lead-ins are equal. I think that’s interesting. Fallon’s definitely gotten a lot better, but I think he’s still too much of a kiss-ass to his guests. He makes even Conan look rude. Regardless, depending on your opinion of how much the lead-ins effect the late-late night numbers, Fallon actually looks more impressive than Conan. Conan, in his final months, was tying Ferguson while Late Night’s lead-in had almost two million more viewers. Now Fallon is tying Ferguson when their lead-ins are equal.

I just don’t understand why everyone’s getting their knickers in a twist over a show that has yet to air and blaming it in advance to hurting Conan’s ratings. What NBC needs to worry about is that Conan isn’t comfortable in his new format, and his former viewers are apparently feeling alienated, they can’t embrace the new guy taking over Conan’s old job, and they’re jumping ship to CBS in late-late night–THAT’S where the real drain is taking place even though those ratings aren’t as important to the bottom line. And all of that is happening RIGHT NOW with Jay Leno off the air.

The model is how Jay’s Tonight Show handled it. He came out with something that was too much a carbon copy of Johnny’s show, then made a set of changes that revamped the look and feel, made it feel more like a comedy club, and that fit Jay just fine.

Conan’s guys are probably hoping they can get a month or two after Jay comes on to get a complete idea of what they think is wrong and what they want to do. In a way, the biggest problem for them will be if Jay’s show blows up on the launch pad, because then it will force NBC to make the huge decision right away, to decide if they want to switch back before Jay goes somewhere else. If Jay lasts, Conan will get time to do a Conan 2.0 and see if that works better.