Ok, it's more than five months until Super Bowl XLIV, and still a ways before CBS will announce its plans, but commenter Forg got this ball rolling early in another post not really dedicated to the topic. But though the season has not yet begun, it’s never too early to talk about this topic.
It’s one of my favorite topics because it’s one where even reasonable people can disagree and second-guess before and after, no matter how it goes down.
This year might be more interesting because at least on the surface it seems like CBS has so many options. Generally, the simplest way to look at this is that CBS will want to make as much money as possible. However, if it thinks it can make (numbers completely made up) $12 million dollars with an hour of The Big Bang Theory & Two and a Half Men, and only $11.2 million with The Mentalist, they might want to go with The Mentalist if they think the big promotion will bring a longer-term benefit. But you can also bet they would not go with any shows that would make millions less.
One thing we can be sure of is that CBS will want to program a full hour. Whether that’s with two episodes of the same comedies, two episodes of different comedies, a one hour drama, or even Survivor (the second season of Survivor premiered after Super Bowl XXXV, so I threw it onto the poll below more as a nostalgic choice!) they will get an hour out of it.
From a pure dollars standpoint, I would probably go with a Two and a Half Men/The Big Bang Theory combo. Besides the money, the other benefit is that both of those shows air the next night. Last year, when NBC aired a one hour episode of The Office after the Super Bowl might lead one to believe that no matter how big the promotion on Sunday night, the effects are long-forgotten by Thursday night. I’m not so sure, though, in CBS’ case whether that’s really true though. It seems a show like The Mentalist which did great in its first year could still benefit from additional exposure. Two and a Half Men has so much exposure between original and syndicated airings, there doesn't seem to be any long-term benefit of promoting it.
CBS really does have a lot of choices though and that's good if you're CBS.
One thing to note is that it’s a bit different for FOX and CBS when they have the Super Bowls than when NBC has it. Due to NBC’s Sunday Night Football arrangement it is in the Super Bowl rotation. However, when it comes to playoff games, all NBC gets is a wild card round. But FOX and CBS get the NFC and AFC conference championships. While not as big as the Super Bowls in terms of viewing they are bigger than just about everything besides the Super Bowl, including American Idol.
When FOX last had the Super Bowl, it promoted Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles after the conference championship, and House after the Super Bowl. But that was a wacky year due to the writer’s strike. This time around, CBS is going to have a lot of options. And if I’m working at CBS, I think it’s a very good position to be in. Except in the eyes of the fans, CBS probably can’t go wrong no matter what it does.
8/30 Update: Here's the ratings history of post-Super Bowl shows through 2008. In 2009, The Office was seen by about 23 million viewers.
[poll id="26"]
Considering that they aired Criminal Minds last time they had the game, I have no doubt they’ll schedule an episode of The Mentalist this year, though I think it’ll depend on how the early weeks of their fall lineup play out. Personally, I’d like to see them introduce a new show that night (nobody’s done that since Fox tested American Dad in 2005), maybe one that breaks out of the CBS crime drama mold.
Being a fan of the show, I would love to see a one-hour special of How I met your mother… It’s now on its own in the 8pm hour (Accidentally on Purpose will bomb, for sure) and it needs the exposure.. Big Bang is doing just fine. It’s already beating Two and a half Men in the repeats. The same goes for The Mentalist – it’s beating CSI:.
I’d say run The Mentalist. CBS seem to be grooming it to take over for the aging CSI. Why not hype the heck out of it.
How much additional exposure can a new TV show get behind NCIS and now CSI? I know CSI ratings were down, but you’re talking two of the largest shows audience-wise on TV.
After the Super Bowl, viewers need some levity. I voted for TBBT even though we’re trying to guess what Redstone’ll do. Knowing CBS, we could see something old instead of a fresher show. Wouldn’t surprise me to see CSI with a Grissom/Sidle return or the first in a 3-part NCIS collaboration to conclude Tuesday night.
TBBT and Gary Unmarried combo
:-X
I think airing The Mentalist after the Super Bowl could have the same effect that the post-Super Bowl episode of Grey’s Anatomy had for that show. It’s already a hit show, they could turn it into the most-watched on television if they play their cards right.
Their comedy block is already doing very well. I’d go with The Mentalist.
With CSIs ratings slipping without Grissom, I wouldn’t be surprised if they aired CSI to give it a bit of a boost
Live coverage of a big pile of “Gary Unmarried” tapes being set ablaze
mentalist is a show thats already at the top
other shows that are in their 3rd year are not a very good idea.
They should play their best show out of the new season of this year.
Which I think should be Accidentaly on Purpose. Sandwhiched by Big Bang Theory for solidaty.
I originally thought The Mentalist but that series has already established its high ratings. Possible contenders are NCIS: LA which I think CBS definitely wants to keep around for years. They already did survivor and NCIS and HIMYM are too old to even think about putting in that spot.
SURVIVOR!
I Think the should put the premiere of Survivor 20 (all stars) or TBBT
I don’t think the should use The Mentalist, with Criminal Minds in that timeslot CBS didn’t win anything, so it will be a mistake, but i think is The Mentalist will be their choice
I guess they will honor Survivor and air the special AllStar Season (S20 time flies, doesn’t it?) after the super bowl. They could possibly introduce a new host and reinvent the game to start it’s syndicated run or just reinvent it in case Jeff Probst wants to quit. Either way, it would probably make the most profit in the long run even though Survivor’s ratings have been steadily decreasing.
The Big Bang Theory (to grow even BIGGER) or Survivor for an All Star Season.
Survior would be an amazing after the super bowl show. Especially with a 99.9% chance of having everyone’s favorite survivor RUPERT!! come back to the show. After Survivor, they can air some show that gets fairly low ratings.
@Gabe, Survivor has been doing well. I know it isn’t anywhere near the 30+ million viewers they got, but I would take 12 million viewers over 5 million viewers any day. Jeff is signed on until season 20. I highly doubt CBS or Mark Brunet will replace Jeff anytime soon. He’s probably waiting to see how the show does; if it loses its fanbase, he will probably quit, if it stays the same or picks up numbers, he will probably sign on for more.
I’ll be shocked if it’s not Survivor 20(aka All-stars 2).
The Mentalist would be a waste unless they move to to 9PM the following Thursday, BBT doesn’t need it now following 2.5 Men, HIMYM not high enough ratings to justify the spot & NCIS skews way too old.
Wouldn’t it technically be All Stars 3? The one season was Fans vs. Favorites.
I think they will wait and see how the new shows perform. If NCIS:LA performs as planned and Three Rivers doesn’t totally bomb and gets a full season renewal, they may move NCIS: LA to Sunday at 8:00, and the Super Bowl would be the perfect platform to help the move. Then, they could put Miami Trauma after NCIS, and you would have two nights with a very similar flowing schedule:
Sunday
60 Minutes
NCIS LA
Three River
Cold Case
Tuesday
NCIS
Miami Trauma
The Good Wife
Scheduling a new show after The Super Bowl is never a good idea. If you look, most networks try to avoid that.