Jay Leno gets the cover of Time Magazine for the September 14, 2009 issue in a cover story written by James Poniewozik. It's a long article (hey, it's the cover story!) but a good read.
If The Jay Leno Show succeeds — where succeeding means not getting more viewers than the competition but simply increasing NBC's profit margin — it suggests a TV future in which ambitious dramas become the stuff of boutique cable, while the broadcasters become a megaphone for live events and cheap nonfiction. "If the Leno Show works," says former NBC president Fred Silverman, "it will be the most significant thing to happen in broadcast television in the last decade."
But it's more than about Jay Leno, it's also delves deeply into the issues facing the television industry, particularly the broadcast networks. It somewhat skewers NBC, while allowing it to spin its side of the story. But also gives you the other side of the coin:
NBC's competitors' response: Speak for yourselves. To them, NBC is self-servingly spinning a collapse of its own making as a symptom of industry-wide problems. "It might be an accurate picture for them, but that doesn't mean it's an accurate picture for everybody," says Kelly Kahl, senior executive vice president of prime time for CBS, the top network in overall viewers. "We don't like being painted with the same brush." CBS will face off against Leno with the imposing likes of CSI: Miami, and right now, it likes its chances. "We have successful shows at 10. We dominate 10 o'clock. It's a good business for us now and a business with the potential to get better."
Some people are predicting an early demise for The Jay Leno Show and think NBC might be forced to quickly change the schedule and at least reduce the number of nights a week it airs. We think that's nonsense and Bill is on the record that it is ridiculous to think NBC won't stick with Leno in prime time for the full season at least.
So one of the more interesting nuggest of the article for me was:
NBC says it's committed to airing The Jay Leno Show five nights a week for at least two years, good ratings or bad. The network gave Leno years to find his legs in late night, but in prime time, success is measured in scant weeks. The Jay Leno Show will almost certainly get a huge tune-in at first; research shows its awareness among viewers is twice that of a well-promoted new show. Does that mean it's a slam dunk? Ask Katie Couric.
There's lots, lots more, and I recommend reading the full article.
This is what I refer to as “nothiing TV”! What I dont get is with Jay Leno, tonight show and the late show you have 3 hours of talk television back to back…barring the 30 min news. Is it me or is that alittle weird! CBS is going crush NBC further….
The first of many new articles about Jay Leno and the pending fall debut of his show have arrived, eh? NBC is still on the spin cycle but writer of the article points out NBC’s record of success on page 2 in the 1st line of paragraph 2, in a succinct, clear, and accurate way. Too bad Zucker is still living in a land of delusion regarding what is really going on. NBC needs to fire him. He’s about as helpful as Captain Ahab was to the Pequod.
I have no idea if Leno will be successful or not in this endeavor. I have my opinion (so does everyone else) and that opinion points toward a Katie Couric swan dive into the abyss (feel free to agree or disagree, the future will (dis)prove my thoughts on it). If it is a hit (and frankly I will be surprised) then so be it. If it is not, then NBC is going to be in for a LOT of public ridicule and embarrassment over blowing up the Tonight Show with Leno in favor of Conan, as well as a lot of “I TOLD YA SO!” choruses from folks who felt this idea was less than intelligent in the first place.
Robert is right. Read the article. It’s an interesting read both for what it says and for what you can read from between the lines. Many things in it have been said or speculated before (and there are viewpoints that are definitely backed with grinding axes by some of the quoted folks) but it’s organized and enhanced in a way that brings much of the Leno-5-days-a-week debate (as well as NBC’s vision of its future, both by themselves and by others) into a pretty clear focus. Disclosure: I avoid reading Time magazine like a locust plague. This article, though, was worth the read.
I guess my only comment is, of course they’re committed to Jay for 2 years. If they had something or somethings better, they’d be in the new fall line-up. NBC has the weakest primetime. They’ll have a difficult time replacing the crappy shows surely to get cancelled without having to worry about filling 5 hours a week for a Leno replacement.
Jokingly, I think Zucker must have dirt and photos of everyone a GE. How else has he kept this job? Any other mortal would have been canned long ago.
ZUKER is a retar! he needs to be fired now, nbc is one of my favorite networks, but now this is getting really embarising
Anyone who reads Poniewozik’s blog on Time.com has seen this article in bits and pieces over the last year, but I would correct him on one thing: It’s not just NBC that has had no luck with 10pm over the last few years, it’s arguably all the nets.
ABC hasn’t had a 10pm hit in literally years (the only surviving 10pm scripted shows are Castle & Private Practice, both of which are all lead-in, and neither of which even aired at 10pm a year ago (it’s 50/50 that Castle is around in 2010)).
Fox & CW don’t program the hour.
Even CBS’ record isn’t that great: Yes, CSI:Miami, CSI:NY, and Numbers are doing okay, but they are all also five+ years old. Nothing newer – Shark, Cane, Eleventh Hour, Smith, Close to Home – has had any long term success.
There’s no guarantee that the Mentalist “promotion” won’t backfire, either – CBS should have given Mentalist 9pm and pushed the aging CSI:Vegas to 10pm.
Given that DVR usage is only increasing in that time period, and that basic cable nets continue to encroach with scripted shows in that hour, programming cheaply there is arguably the better bet for the broadcast nets in the long run. I’m also surprised that the nets haven’t pushed back at the restrictions that they, and not cable, have to endure – programming X number of children’s educational programming per week, etc.
Tom, You left out Brothers & Sisters on ABC which is only a few years old.
It has a nice lead-in, but a solid audience of its own. You also left out L&O: SVU on NBC, but that definitely is also 5+ years.
I’m sure The Mentalist will still be “a hit” at 10pm so I don’t see it backfiring from that perspective, but I was a little surprised they didn’t flip TM and CSI around for this season. I think it might be that at this point CSI is just too expensive to be a 10pm show.
I was limiting myself to M-F, when Leno airs. But yes, expanding to the whole week just adds Cold Case (also 5 years old), and B&S, which is partially lead-in, but honestly counts as a hit for ABC.
SVU isn’t a 10pm show for long!
I suppose I should define “backfire” as getting ratings better than they had at the end of last season. Then again, even with slightly lesser ratings, it will net more profit from Thursday movie advertisements than it did last year on Tuesday. I still think CBS could have maximized profit by putting at 9pm, and providing the ultimatum that Vegas had only this season to get profitable.
I’m one of those people who barely watch Live TV. I’m exactly what networks and advirtiser hate. I watch what I can at my time and my descression. Things like Hulu and my HTPC have made my viewing choices my own.
I don’t really get to see the “coming next week” promos so most of my viewing is done by friend recommendations and taking a chance on a pilot or two off the internet. Would I care if places like Hulu showed more ads. No, infact all that matters to me is getting to sit down and watch a show when I can, so if it means the same 2-3 minutes of ads between my shows then i’m ok with that.
@Some Guy Named John (or any one else on this hulu kick)- can you give us a character sketch of your tv watching self? Not asking for any personally identifiable information, I am just interested in how you narrativize (make an everyday story) about your tv watching experience.
What do you think Jay Leno’s show will do to Conan and David’s shows.
I personally feel like a lot of people who use to stay up to watch it, will get their fill from 10-11 from Jay.
Jay may increase the 10pm’s numbers, but if it’s at the cost of Conan’s number’s at 12:30, it may not be totally worth it.
I also think that Jay’s target audience is more of a Conan crowd than a david crowd, and conan will get hurt more.
I think the jay leno show will get good ratings, I mean it won’t be the number one show but it will do pretty well. If NBC had hit shows that had high viewership it would help the Jay leno show. but they don’t so it’s all up to jay.
The problem with Jay Leno is that two good timeslots for NBC
About 10 years ago, NBC filled up 5 nights a week with the low-cost programming of “Dateline NBC,” and that was during better economic times as well. This is just a new version of that. Don’t fall for the NBC spin.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999%E2%80%932000_United_States_network_television_schedule for proof)
Even ABC had 4 nights of “20/20″ back then.
OKAY – for some reason the start of my sentence was said.
the problem with Jay Leno is that two good timeslots for NBC, tuesday and thursday are gone – why take the risk – if Leno fails then it will be even harder to attract 10pm veiwers for next season. Also Leno only just makes NBC look more desperate and worse – which I personally see as part of the demise of the CW.
@Ron: I’ve mentioned that myself here: between Primetime, 20/20, Dateline, 48 Hours, etc., and Fox & CW not programming the hour, scripted programming has already been in the minority over the last decade at 10pm.
And it’s already been theorized that ABC could turn their frequent 10pm news shows into the “new” stripped Nightline, which would be half news and half pre-filmed reports.
“Of course, the more networks get away from scripted programming, the more the other networks could potentially profit.” That statement is itself rooted in the old economic reality. CSI:NY won’t necessarily see more viewers this year, those viewers will just switch to their DVR / cable shows.
It’s entirely possible Leno will simply lead to network shows getting smaller shares vs. cable. But that is the reality anyway – if NBC profits more in the hour (to say nothing about their cable nets picking up the slack), then why shouldn’t they start shedding hours.
Fin, 10 PM thursday was going to be a gamble for NBC anyway
Best article so far on the subject I have read.
Echoes what I’ve been saying from the get go, particularly:
The cold fact about NBC’s Leno strategy is, it is giving up. Whether it’s a brilliant strategic retreat or a premature surrender remains to be seen. But bottom line, what was once TV’s premier network is drastically reducing its expectations: giving up the possibility of developing a lucrative CSI-size hit at 10, swinging for singles rather than the fences, seeking — wisely, for all we know — to ride out the decline of big media with a minimum of damage.
For the person saying The Mentalist will not be good in that Thursday time slot just look at yesterday’s total viewers: ten million, for a repeat that has been shown at least three times! Since the viewers for Jay and The Mentalist should be similarly demo light my guess is the scripted show will be the real winner.
All NBC is asking for is a relatively cheap warm body to draw some viewers. The bar isn’t that high.
It’s similar to CBS replacing Guiding Light with Let’s Make a Deal. They don’t really care what happens as long as “someone” is watching. Surely Let’s Make a Deal won’t get many more preferred viewers than Guiding Light did. It is all about saving money.
And why exactly can’t NBC find better programming that people will watch? They did it for decades. That is the real question.
I heard a well respected historian say once” The decline and fall of the Roman empire did not happen because it had bad leaders. It happened because its citizens did not care it had bad leaders. Now insert the words Broadcast Television for Roman empire.
I had a producer tell me not long ago, sometime in the near future, NBC will be all reality, game and sports shows. And the citizens did not care.
If Leno really tanks this season Fox should start programing something in the 10pm slot and put NBC in the cellar next season.