Since the CW starts its new show premieres tomorrow, it's time to look at the the battles that loom on the night for the 2009-10 fall broadcast season. Below are the hourly lineups, including each shows 18-49 demo rating average from the 2008-9 season.
8:00
Shark Tank (ABC), 1.7 adults 18-49 demo rating for summer 2009 through 8/30.
NCIS (CBS), 3.4 demo rating
90210 (CW), 1.1 demo rating
So You Think You Can Dance (8-10p) (Fox), ~3.5 demo rating for Wed. & Thu. summer 2009 through 8/30
Biggest Loser (8-10p) (NBC), 3.3 demo rating
9:00
Dancing with the Stars (ABC), 3.8 demo rating
After Dancing finishes: Scrubs (ABC) 1.9 demo, Better Off Ted (ABC), 1.8 rating
NCIS: Los Angeles (CBS) New
Melrose Place (CW) New
So You Think You Can Dance (8-10p) (Fox), ~3.5 demo rating for Wed. & Thu. summer 2009 through 8/30
Biggest Loser (8-10p) (NBC), 3.3 demo rating
10:00
The Forgotten (ABC), New
The Good Wife (CBS), New
The Jay Leno Show (NBC), New, Fall 2009 Tonight Show averaged about a 1.4-1.5 demo rating
My Guess
I think Tuesday's night average nightly demo race is going to be very competitive. I like CBS to win if The Good Wife doesn't completely implode. They'll have a strong 8pm hour, if 9pm isn't strong I'd be shocked and one unknown hour. At the beginning of the season it's easy to see NBC in second place with the early Jay Leno Show tune in. After things settle down, I think NBC's average could drift down near Fox's 2 hours of So You Think You Can Dance.
With a weak hour to start the night, a new show at 10pm, and ratings weakness (Scrubs, Ted) at 9pm following Dancing with the Stars, I can't see ABC finishing better than 4th for the night. Of course the CW's going to be a distant fifth, but I'd guess that Melrose Place does better than Privileged did in the same slot initially, so the CW will see an uptick for the night to start the season.
Note: I make all my guesses completely unburdened by having read any reviews of any of the new shows, having seen any of the pilots, or knowing any more than the most casual details of their subject matter. Does that make mine better or worse than the typical TV writer which focuses almost solely on those? Your mileage may vary.
Fox caveat: Regardless of their other shows outcome of the major league baseball playoffs can make or break Fox's fall averages. If they get long series with good matchups their overall averages benefit tremendously. If they get short series with bad matchups, they'll suffer.
Even if Shark Tank was a good show (and it isn’t) look at the competition it is facing. Three different shows with a 3.3 demo rating or over (plus whatever drek is on Dawn’s estrogenfest).
My bet is that this is one of the first shows canceled. Experts, yea or neh?
zeker, early cancellations usually happen because of a downside surprise. Shark Tank’s certainly got plenty of ratings downside potential, but it’s unlikely to be a surprise since the summer run-up has established a track record. My guess is that while it might not come back next season (extremely hard to predict for unscripted shows) it is very unlikely to get pulled early.
Zeker, Biggest Loser usually is more in the 2.5-3.0 range for 8 pm, but your point still stands. But it’s hard to think of Shark Tank as the first show canceled when it will probably air more episodes than whatever the second show canceled airs, since it has already aired in the summer.
I read the post linking the Wposts’ reviews with initial interest and growing dismay and even revulsion. ( Off-topic, I know.) I don’t remember a review of Melrose Place or got bored before I found it, but on the off-chance of the bone or two of non politisized eroticism its the only new show of all those listed I would watch. ( Hey,I watched the worst movie of the year so far, Van Wilder: Freshman Year,just because of the ten seconds of titillation,and of course ten seconds out of 24,000 or so was all I got. ) Listening to Stl baseball with the only pseudo-male ( not that I’m pseudo, but TV programmers are ) appeal show on for eye candy – Kim, Kourtney and Khloe, three women who if included in the 72-houri package I’d gladly,if not an agnostic infidel, fly a plane into Disneyworld for. When these fools realize 50% of all those employed are women ( duh, does that mean there are 10% more men held hostage by the recession to daytime TV?) maybe TV will stop being an “estrogenfest”. Have these empty suits not yet lost enough of all they care about – do ra mi – to effect profitable programming changes in the five to ten they have left?
Darn, there’s nothing good on Tuesdays now with Fringe moving to Thursdays, I guess that means I have to actually do something productive.
Melrose Place is going to do way better than Priviledged last season. I would anticipate it premieres in the 3-3.5M range and stays around 3M.
I’d be shocked if Melrose Place got anything higher than 3-4 million viewers.
With all the promotion the CW has done, cant be surprised if Melrose Place premieres high. 90210 premiered 5 million viewers last year and the CW didnt even do as much promotion for the shows as they did this year.
If NCIS LA lasts the whole season I’ll be surprised. It has none of the elements that made NCIS work.
Well, nothing good on Tuesday… so I’ll be able to go work and do my school things.
It’s a good Idea for Fox to throw crappy reality show against crappy reality show… better than throwing Fringe anyway. Do you have Monday night somewhere?
It’ll be interesting to see if 90210 can get back the viewers it lost last season.
you would think the creators of Melrose place could come up with a different name. At least with 90210 it was slightly changed.
Now that 90210 is back in it’s 8pm timeslot and has taken more of a consistent comedic drama tone, I definitely think it can get viewers back. I’m more concerned about Melrose. I doubt it can keep the tween 90210 viewers tuned in and I don’t see fans of the original liking the twist that happens in the first ten minutes.
Jessica, that concerns me too. Im sure people are happy that Sydney is back but then she just gets killed off again which does stink.
Vetinari, while I am unburdened by ever having watched NCIS or knowing anything more about NCIS:LA than it’s a spinoff, you’re in the tiny minority with that call. The conventional wisdom is that NCIS:LA can’t miss. Based on CBS’ audience and their ability to program to it, I agree with the conventional wisdom in this case.
@Robert, I don’t see why they would have changed the name. It’s supposed to be an updated version of the same show where as 90210 is a spinoff.
Au contraire, Veternari: A good friend of mine watches NCIS so I have seen beaucoups episodes. I think upping the sexual tension in LA with gratuitous beach shots, plots involving conniving man trapping ( or female Naval officer trapping ) strippers and all the other only real reasons to set a procedural of any kind in LA or Fla. may be a hit. And don’t tell me crossover episodes with that Goth hottie/geek with the black bangs blue eyes and tatooes of skulls and roses letting it all hang out in a string bikini and causing shock waves of dismay and slow-burning guilty pleasure among the brass … my check from Belisarius (?) will be in the mail, I’m sure.
NCIS LA will retain most of NCIS’s audience, maybe it’ll even grow in demos. It’s imposible for this show to bomb. And with a good lead The Good Wife will do pretty well, probably Without a Trace numbers
IN MY OPINION MELROSE PLACE WILL HAVE AT LEAST 4 MILLION VIEWERS!!THIS SUMMER IT MP HAD THE BIGGER PROMOTION ON THE CW HISTORY AND I THINK IS THE BUZZIEST NEW SHOW!!!SO IF 90210 PREMIERED LAST YEAR WITH MORE THAN 5 NILLION VIEWERS I THINK THAT MELROSE WILL HAVE AROUND 5,20-5,40 MILLION VIEWERS!!!
90210 WILL HAVE AN INCREASE FROM LAST SPRING.I THINK THAT IT COULD REACH 3,10-3,20 MILLION VIEWERS BUT NOT MORE!!!
George, caps lock! Please!