Wednesday nights on broadcast TV this fall is going to be filled with that new show smell. ABC's all new, NBC has 2 new hours, and the CW and Fox are each 50% new. Only CBS is bringing back a veteran line up, presumably they'll hang a little evergreen tree on the rearview mirror.
Below are the hourly lineups, including each shows 18-49 demo rating average (which includes in-slot repeats) from the 2008-9 season as well as my guesses for the fall nightly overall results.
If you enjoyed the Wednesday look ahead for the new season, check out Tuesday's.
8:00
Hank (ABC), New
New Adventures of Old Christine (CBS), 2.0 18-49 demo rating
America's Next Top Model (CW), 1.9 fall '08, 1.8 spring '09 demo ratings
So You Think You Can Dance (Fox), ~3.5 demo rating for Wed. & Thu. summer 2009 through 8/30
Mercy (NBC), New
8:30
The Middle (ABC), New
Gary Unmarried (CBS), 2.1 demo rating
9:00
Modern Family (ABC), New
Criminal Minds (CBS) 3.4 demo rating
The Beautiful Life (CW) New
Glee (Fox), New
Law & Order:SVU (NBC), 3.3 demo rating (@ 10pm last season)
9:30
Cougar Town (ABC), New
10:00
Eastwick (ABC), New
CSI:NY (CBS), 3.2 demo rating
The Jay Leno Show (NBC), New, Fall 2009 Tonight Show averaged about a 1.4-1.5 demo rating
My Guess
Wednesday looks like an easy CBS win with their strong 9 and 10pm shows. Their margin would be even bigger if it wasn't millstoned by the 8pm comedy hour ratings losers. Since I expect Law & Order: SVU to improve its ratings at 9pm this season (vs. 10pm last season), if Mercy doesn't crash immediately, NBC could start in a strong second due to early Leno tune in. Ultimately, I think that whoever ends up in second place (almost certainly Fox or NBC) will be well back of CBS' nightly ratings in the 18-49 demo.
I think the best ABC can expect is to find a couple keepers out of its all new night. The worst case, a complete wipe out, is also possible. CW could easily improve on the night if The Beautiful Life does better than Stylista did in the same slot, not a very high hurdle.
Note: I make all my guesses completely unburdened by having read any reviews of any of the new shows, having seen any of the pilots, or knowing any more than the most casual details of their subject matter. Does that make mine better or worse than the typical TV writer which focuses almost solely on those? Your mileage may vary.
Fox caveat: Regardless of their other shows outcome of the major league baseball playoffs can make or break Fox's fall averages. If they get long series with good matchups their overall season averages benefit tremendously. If they get short series with bad matchups, they'll suffer.
I wish The Middle wasnt against Gary Unmarried!! I wish The Middle was at 8
I’ll be watching Hank, New Adventures of Old Christine, America’s Next Top Model, Mercy, The Middle, Modern Family, The Beautiful Life, Glee, Cougar Town, and Eastwick.
I have my dual DVR’s set!!
Hey Bill is there a Monday night preview like this one yet? Just curious cause I can’t find it if there is one. Thanks
Elyk, no Monday preview yet, I started with Tuesday simply because of tonight’s CW premieres. I will finish with Monday’s in advance of September 14.
I hope Modern Family gets canceled!
Bill, will you do a thursday preview tomorrow? I like the previews.
I’LL be Watching Old Christine (8pm), The Middle (8:30pm), Modern Family (9pm) and The Beautiful Life ( DVR)…
Just saw Modern Family. Office ripoff done with families.
We have all seen those jokes before. Stale, predictable, not one instantly likable character, and one really, really, annoying one, the cool dad.
wednesday its all about CW for me!!
I love tyra so i will watch again antm and tbl look very promising with nice cast.
i think that tbl will do much better than stylista did.i think it wil reach from 3,50 to 4-10 million viewers because of its lead in.so its premiere ratings depends from how good numbers will have antm that day.
i also give a shot on eastwick and maybe i ll watch the V premire on November!!!
here we go again another night will like a million shows i want to see them all exaped Top Modle and Dance
CBS should be worried that SYTYCD is going to hurt them the most at 8PM and 8:30. Old Christine and Gary Unmarried barely hung on last year against very little competition. Not to mention that ABC’s new comedies in the same time slot look like they will pull in the same kind of viewers. The rest of CBS’s lineup looks like it should do fine.
With NBC I see Mercy starting with Medium-like numbers and then it could go either way. It has one plus going for it and that is that it’s the only scripted drama at 8PM. SVU should do as well as it always has and may see a small bump due to being on at 9 instead of 10 this year.
ABC could either have a great night, or a terrible night. One thing I will say is that I am glad that they finally did a real comedy block and I hope that they stick with it and let it grow. Other then Hank the new comedies look fairly ok to good. Eastwick on the other hand will most likely be one of the first casualties of the 2009-2010 season. Think Lipstick Jungle and Pushing Daisies getting together and having a baby, that baby’s name is Eastwick. And we all know how poorly both of those shows did.
Something tells me that FOX has lower expectations for SYTYCD in the fall then they had in the summer. Will it see another fall season IDK either way it wouldn’t surprise me. But let’s focus on Glee, this is probably the most over hyped show of the season. It’s going to start with a bang from all the hype, and plummet pretty quickly, it’s just too much of a niche show for a general audience.
Finally the CW… ANTM will do as well as it has in the past. TBL will be hit or miss, but most likely be on par with the rest of the crap on the CW.
Wednesday night might be Leno’s best night of the week, with nothing standing out as a big hit at the moment, his only real competition is going to be CSI:NY.
Oh okay, thanks Bill!
BTW, is it safe to conjure that FOX is going to have the strongest lineup across the board the second half of the year?
American Idol-really stupid but people seem to watch it with 20+ million viewers.
House-Always dominant, even though it has been declining recently.
Fringe-Great new show with solid potential going into a second season.
Bones-Finally starting to gain some recognition as a hit show with 10 million viewers averaged.
Glee-Teens and women are gonna flock to this show, sure to be a success.
Hell’s Kitchen-A amazingly strong summer run, this show is a guilty pleasure for many and it’s showing with great demos.
Lie to Me-Great first season, and now with it behind House, this is going to be a huge success.
There only weak date seems to be Fridays, but fridays suck all around. Dollhouse and ‘Til Death, out after 12 episodes.
Any other views on who the strongest network will be?
I cant wait for Glee!!!
Look at night of tlevision where I don’t see anything I have any desire to watch.
Criminal Minds ftw.
I do wonder if Old Christine and Gary don’t do any better, CBS will put a new drama or an established hit like Survivor or The Amazing Race in that slot. They have two reality shows lined up for midseason which could easily slot in as will the I Get That a Lot specials.
Criminal Minds will get dented a bit by SVU but it’s got a solid audience and CSI:NY will thrive against Eastwick and Leno.
I know critics are anticipating the 9 o’clock hour with most of the seeming consensus of best new shows.
As for me, the shows I’ll have some sort of viewer interest in are Top Model mostly for the photos, Glee’s musical sequences, and maybe SVU sometimes for the rare good episode. Not sure I’ll watch a full episode of any of the above, though.
I don’t know about a “complete” ABC write-off but clearly a couple of shows are in trouble, take a look at the comedy block at 9:00/9:30.
First of all, new comedy shows? On ABC?
Secondly, look at the competition – Criminal Minds (CBS) 3.4 demo rating, Glee (Fox), New but HEAVILY promoted, Law & Order:SVU (NBC), 3.3 demo rating.
Experts, question: How bad would the ratings of Modern Family/Cougar Town have to be for them to get pulled after 4-5 weeks?
I think ABC’s new lineup is going to bomb. I predict they’ll be in fourth place. Putting Snot Rag on at 8 has to be the worst scheduling decision this year.
I suspect Eastwick will do better than expected, not a big hit but not too bad. One reviewer dismissed it as a combo of Charmed and Desperate Housewives but that doesn’t sound like something that would be a turn-off to everyone. I don’t think negative comparisons with the movie will matter much and that it will flop or succeed on its own merits.
As to the sitcoms, it’s a little hard for me to judge how they will do since every single one of them on this night on all networks looks gawdawful to me. Looking at this lineup makes it more clear to me why The Big Bang Theory does well – it’s pleasant and it’s not full of people who reek of burnout.