Comments on: Wednesday Night 2009-10: So New! ABC's Entire Night, Glee, Mercy, The Beautiful Life And More...

By: Dan

Dan — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 21:04:23 +0000

forg – I actually didn’t know that, it must have been recent. Despite her dropping out of the show, OParenthood will likely premiere at 8:00 wednesday by March, or possibly earlier if Mercy tanks.

nkinsey – Yeah, hype doesn’t always work, but timeslot and competition usually determines a lot. NBC will keep anything if the ratings are decent enough or if it has critical acclaim. The only dramas NBC has left from the past few seasons are the two oldest Law & Orders, Heroes, Chuck, the relatively new Southland, and L&O CI and Friday Night Lights (both of which are technically series of USA and DirecTV respectively) I also agree Trauma will likely get additional episodes over Mercy. Hopefully Trauma can take Two and a Half Men/The Big Bang Theory, Lie to Me, and Dancing. Dancing will get first, then Men/Theory in second, but if Lie to Me retains a lot of House it will probably beat Trauma. However NBC will probably stick with it until Heroes is over and Day One and Chuck begin. I think its better that Parenthood premieres midseason so it can get a fresh start, even though Idol will crush it. I think its good that NBC premiered both its “ER” replacements so they can likely renew one and axe the other.

By: forg

forg — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 01:45:36 +0000

Speaking of Parenthood, Maura Tierney dropped out of the show already because of cancer treatments
http://blog.zap2it.com/frominsidethebox/2009/09/maura-tierney-quits-parenthood-for-cancer-treatments.html

They will probably air Parenthood next year I guess.

By: Julie

Julie — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 01:32:15 +0000

FOX should be hugely worried with Dance at 8pm. Airing another cycle of Hell’s Kitchen in its place could easily do 7 million and a 3.0 demo, which would also be more of a benefit to Glee. Glee at 9pm could actually win the demo in the hour, taking away from Modern Family/Cougar Town (which were looking to be demo hits, but now not so sure) and of course the younger crime audience on CBS and NBC.

I’m expecting Old Christine to have a slightly better season this year. It should be able to do 8 million more often this season, considering its repeat numbers haven’t been too far off from HIMYM’s repeat numbers at 8pm. Still, it’s demo will be far lower, which is where Hank will compete. GU should see no increase at all, as the OC audience will likely tune into The Middle more than they would GU.

By: nkinsey

nkinsey — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 18:49:27 +0000

And as you were saying, look at those shows with all the hype from last season. You said that “those series eventually died because of low ratings”. I’ll take it one further: Those series died either at or before finishing ONE full season.

Even look at The Bionic Woman. Holy cats, was there a lot of hype for that! And how long did that show last?

Exactly.

By: nkinsey

nkinsey — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 18:47:15 +0000

Dan-

I was JUST going to say that of the two, Trauma would probably be given the extra ep order.

I actually think for Parenthood’s sake, midseason seems a better fit for them. I almost think the show would have been lost in the shuffle in the fall. For one, they give it more time to hype it up. NBC is beautiful at creating hype for a show where the hype never turns into ratings success. Also, they can not only look at their schedule for a last minute adjustment, but look at other networks’ weak spots and place accordingly.

By: Dan

Dan — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 17:49:24 +0000

I agree, Mercy could start out well but then dwindle in viewers gradually, At least we know one thing. If Mercy does flop, NBC has a new midseason drama, Parenthood waiting to take its place. Originally Parenthood was supposed to air 8pm wednesday but because of one of the star’s illness they had to switch it with Mercy and have 2 medical series for the fall. NBC calls anything a hit. They called Kath & Kim the new hit comedy, My Own Worst Enemy their new hit drama, Knight Rider tvs most popular new drama. Yet all those series eventually died because of low ratings. What I do think would happen is that with only 3 new series, and such a smaller schedule, I don’t think NBC would be quick to axe anything. While Community is a shoo in for renewal, NBC will likely wait until November or December to decide on the Trauma/Mercy fate. Both series can easily be replaced at midseason yet NBC may likely give one of them more episodes (likely Trauma).

By: nkinsey

nkinsey — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 17:04:26 +0000

Dan-

I totally understand your thinking on this, but just because the other networks might not have a lot of viewers does not mean by default NBC gets them. With so many families having to have both parents working full time, an 8P Wednesday void might be JUST what they need to keep up with their scrap-booking.

I think Mercy will pull a SouthLAnd in viewership. It’ll start relatively well (NBC will call it a “hit” no matter what. Hell, they called The Listener a hit), then start bleeding viewers in following week. I see Mercy settling into 4-5 million viewers. FOX will ultimately claim 18-49.

By: Dan

Dan — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 16:50:30 +0000

nkinsey – I agree with your thoughts and why you might think I’d give NBC a lot of credit (since most of there dramas the past 2 years have flopped) The only reason I think Mercy might do well is because of how not so good the other 8pm series will do. Dance should win at 8, but what other series is there to compete with. The CBS and ABC comedies are the weak spots, on other nights like Thursday at 9 ABC and CBS dominate but their wednesday comedies won’t do well at all. Hank and The Middle should dip to 4-5 million by October, Old Christine and Gary Unmarried will likely get 5-7 million. Mercy may not do amazing, but if it gets at least 7 million viewers and beats the CBS comedies, NBC will be happy. Wednesdays at 8pm last year had Bones, Knight Rider, Pushing Daisies, and Christine/Gary. That seemed like ABC, CBS, and NBC’s 4 weakest series and Bones. Bones did very well but the rest didn’t do that great, but there was a variety. This year there’s SYTYCD, Gary/Christine, Hank/Middle, and Mercy and all of these shows lead of the night and aren’t retaining any viewers. Its possible just because Mercy is the sole drama at 8 that it could do OK.

The only thing I’m sure of is that at 8pm FOX will take first and ABC will come in fourth. CBS comedies could do better than Mercy but only time will tell.

By: nkinsey

nkinsey — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 15:42:49 +0000

Dan-

Ok, dude. The way you think about stuff – and your awesome network memory – reminds me of me. Pretty sure we’d be buds if we went to college together, and even co-ran a network website. That said….I don’t agree with all of your assessment. Mostly 8P.

I just think you are maybe giving Mercy a bit more credit than it deserves. I just do not see it doing well whatsoever. For one, it’s NBC. They can promote a show on every commercial break (like they did with SouthLAnd), but if they are the least-watched channel, it is kind of a moot point – like when a bear sh!ts in the woods analogy. Granted, they kill with HH in the summer with AGT, so that’s going for them. I just don’t see that show doing well at all.

Luckily, its success isn’t crucial to SVU. That show will be fighting it out for HH with Minds the whole season, but I only see it coming in first when Minds has reruns and SVU have first-runs.

Other than that, I agree with everything you said. To sum it up though, I think HHs will go to CBS (with 2nd place: FOX taking 8P & NBC taking 9P), and 18-49s most likely FOX’s game to lose.

By: Dan

Dan — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 11:26:03 +0000

forg – while ratings will be bad, I have a feeling I know what will happen. Hank will be the first one axed after a few airings, or at least until November. Modern Family and Cougar Town will get full season renewals no matter what. Reviews were really good, ABC needs some comedies, and every time I look theres a promotion or billboard for Modern Family and Cougar Town. That just leaves The Middle. If ABC didn’t cancel Samantha Who and still had it on mondays, they couldve put Samantha Who in the 8:00 slot. So by midseason, the comedy block would shrink to an hour, and the schedule could look like this….

Wed
8:00 Modern Family
8:30 Cougar Town
9:00 Lost
10:00 V or Flashforward

Its likely when Lost returns at 9 on wednesdays, its possible that ABC may move a compatible V or Flashforward to 10 since I don’t see Eastwick sticking around.

The Middle is 50/50. ABC could simply axe it like they will do with Hank or they could give it a vote of confidence. The problem is that they might not have a comedy to pair it with unless they order a new comedy for midseason or schedule it after Dancing.

While its always good to be optimistic, its important to be realistic and realisticly, Hank will be axed early, Modern Family and Cougar Town will be renewed and The Middle could go either way.

By: forg

forg — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 08:23:04 +0000

Dan: Criminal Minds is indeed the show to beat, it performs well against Idol so I’m sure it would do well now. Although SVU could be a threat because it performed really well on its previous 10pm slot. About the ABC sitcom block, that is what I’m really thinking but for now I chose to remain optimistic, maybe they could survive, or at least two of them.

By: forg

forg — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 08:19:01 +0000

Bgun: I’m rooting for the ABC comedies, I hope they could really survive. I hope the buzz will translate to viewers especially for Modern Family, one of the best reviewed new show. Out of the four, Cougar Town has the best chance to do good in the ratings. I’m mainly relying on Courtney Cox’s star power, I know D!rt flopped, but that was a badly reviewed drama show on cable, this is a comedy, her element, so I’m hoping a lot of curious viewers would want to see her again on TV. The reviews are generally good. So crossing my fingers for that.

How I wished Samantha Who? survived, she would have been a good fit to this block actually. Oh well.

By: Dan

Dan — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 08:10:15 +0000

Forg – I think Criminal Minds will most likely win but SVU won’t be too far behind. Criminal Minds also builds considerably on its low ratd comedy duo. If Mercy somehow does well SVU will benefit. I think Glee will do better than Modern Family / Cougar Town just because its lead in SYTYCD will win 8pm and if Glee retains most of its lead in it should do OK. Glee wont beat Criminal Minds or SVU but it should hold up. MF and CT look like great comedies but will likely fall to its bad lead in. If people aren’t watching Hank and The Middle, why suddenly would people come to watch Modern Family or Cougar Town. The comedies will likely place fourth and ABC will likely axe 1 and save 2 or 3 of the comedies. The block will probably collapse by December and reduce to a 1 hour comedy block.

By: Bgun

Bgun — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 07:56:11 +0000

forg: My guess is that ABC is just doing a counter-programming. Modern Family and Cougar Town aim at (mostly female and some male) audiences who are not interested in procedurals (CM and SVU) or high-school musical (Glee). Variety thrashed Glee for the next two episodes thus it may shed viewers and that’s when ABC comedy block comes in and grab some of their audience. If the buzz is working, I’d say 10 million total viewers for the premier episode of both Modern Family and Cougar Town.

By: forg

forg — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 02:25:43 +0000

The 9pm slot is really competitive so basically is SVU vs. CM for 1st spot and Cougar/Modern vs. Glee for 3rd spot. Veterans vs veterans and newbies vs newbies.
I would be really shocked if any of the newbies beat any of the veterans. But I do really hope

Dan: yeah Eastwick is the most dispensable one unless it pulls really good ratings. But it has an advantage though somehow because its really counter-programming for CSI NY and Jay Leno and it has a different tone compared to the previous Wednesdays 10pm occupants that flopped. Maybe there is a little hope. But it really depends hugely on Cougar Town’s performance as well

By: Dan

Dan — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 01:42:02 +0000

Here’s my guess

This is how 8pm wednesdays should look.

SYTYCD – 9-12 million viewers
Mercy – 7-9 million viewers
Old Christine/Gary Unmarried – 6-7 million viewers
Hank/The Middle – 5-6 million viewers
ANTM – 3-4 million viewers

Basically 8pm is going to be all FOX. Mercy has the advantage of being the only drama so if people don’t want family comedies or dancing, Mercy could get additional episodes. While not performing amazing the CBS comedies will liekly do slightly better than ABC just because its consistent from last year. Hank is the weak spot in the schedule and will liekly bring down The Middle in ratings. These ABC comedies wont last, or if anything The Middle may get a full year. And in fifth ANTM will be the best performing show for the CW with around 4 million.

9pm should be like this
Criminal Minds – 13-14 millon viewers
Law & Order SVU – 9-11 million viewers
Glee – 7-9 million viewers
Modern Family / Cougar Town – 5-7 million viewers
The Beautiful Life 2.5 -3 million

CBS will easily win as always with Criminal Minds, however NBC’s veteran Law & Order SVU will likely build upon Mercy by a few million and should place second. Glee should hold on to a good amount of its Dance lead in maybe 60-70% but still has a disadvantage of going up against 2 veteran series. Again likely brought down by its lead in the clever comedies Cougar Town and Modern Family are not expected to do better than 7 million. Its hard for ABC when every series on a night is completely new (ABC did this in fall 2007 with Pushing Daisies/Private Practice/Dirty Sexy Money) but 4 new comedies makes it even worse. Despite likely low ratings, good reviews and high promotion will give Cougar and Modern full seasons no matter what. The comedy night will likely be down by January though. And last but not least, The Beautiful Life will get 5th and while not expected to be a hit, the series is likely to do better after ANTM then Stylista did.

10pm
CSI NY – 12-13 million viewers
Eastwick – 5-8 million viewers
Jay Leno Show – 3-4 million

10pm wednesdays looks similiar to mondays at 10, with a CSI winning the night and a new ABC series doing OK. CSI NY will dominate however Eastwick do to its likely low lead in will probably flop like every other ABC series that airs at 10pm wednesday (The Nine, Cashmere Mafia, Men in Trees, Dirty Sexy Money, Life on Mars, The Unusuals). Jay Leno should do as everyone expects it to.

Bottom line

CBS will easily win the night despite having a weak spot at 8. FOX should do well with Dance and then Glee and NBC may even surprise us with Mercy doing OK before SVU. ABC’s comedies will do horrible and expect at least 1 of those series do be axed (Hank) and 2 renewed.

Glee – Likely to get additional episodes, depsite veteran drama competition.
Mercy – Has advantage of being the only drama at 8, could get additional episodes.
Modern Family – Despite likely low ratings, highly likely to get renewed due to lack of comedies and good buzz.
Cougar Town – Despite likely low ratings, highly likely to get renewed due to lack of comedies and good buzz.
Hank – Likely to be axed by November
The Middle – ABC could go either way with this show, with Modern and Cougar likely to be renewed, ABC could try to save this too or axe it.
Eastwick – Highly likely to be axed due to low lead in ratings.
The Beautful Life – Likely to get additional episodes, (18-20) if it holds on to a lot of ANTM.

Comments, Opinions, anything………

By: Scott

Scott — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 21:39:50 +0000

Christine, Criminal Minds, CSI NY, The Middle, Modern Family, Cougar Town and Eastwick, with Mercy and Glee getting opportunities to be added to my viewing list.

By: nkinsey

nkinsey — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 20:56:28 +0000

Wow, Tony. You really have a lot of faith in NBC. Mercy getting 9 million? NBC would cream their pants if they got 9 million from Mercy. Too bad it isn’t going to happen.

By: chet

chet — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 20:51:09 +0000

as far as idol goes dont forget the new judges and acts should make somekind of draw since abdul departure
not sure if her departure will help or hurt idol or do nothing

we will see

By: Tony

Tony — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 18:58:56 +0000

Ok… Let’s do this:

8 pm

Hank – 5.0 million (1.4 demo)
The Middle 5.0 million (1.5 demo)
So You Think You Can Dance – 7 million (2.8 demo)
Mercy – 9 million (2.8 demo)
The New Adventures of Old Christine – 6.0 million (1.6 demo)
Gary Unmarried – 6 million (1.5 demo)
America’s Next Top Model – 3.5 million (1.6 demo)

9-10 pm

Modern Family – 6.5 million (1.9 demo)
Cougar Town – 6.7 million (2.0 demo)
Criminal Minds – 11 million (2.8 demo)
Law & Order:SVU – 10 million (3.2 demo)
Glee – 8 million (2.8 demo)
The Beautiful Life – 2.2 million (1.0 demo)

10-11 pm

CSI NY: 13 million (3.2 demo)
Jay Leno: 9.5 million (2.0 demo)
Eastwick: 6 million (2.0 demo)

By: r0ckmypants

r0ckmypants — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 18:57:28 +0000

@Tommy: My point is exactly what you said. High School Musical was a success in a niche market… Glee potentially will be too. It has all the drama (and more) of HSM, the fun musical numbers, and the relatability of the franchise. And if you look at numbers for the debut of the first HSM, it was not the enormous phenomenon that it eventually became. It grew by word of mouth and stretched BEYOND its niche crowd of young Disney fans. People of all ages and backgrounds love it, and I think a good number of them will enjoy the same things about Glee. I do agree, however, that it would be better as a mini-series event or a series of TV movies. Who knows, it could definitely be an epic failure.

@Julia: Bandslam is not a musical. It’s a movie about and featuring music, but it is not a musical.

By: Dave

Dave — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 18:51:32 +0000

8:00 – I don’t think that Hank is gonna be well received – it has been totally massacred in reviews and I honestly don’t see people having an interest in Kelsey Grammer anymore. I think Dance will be at the top with Old Christine being second, then Mercy and Hank.

8:30 – I think Dance will beat the competition, but I see The Middle doing better than Gary.

9:00 and 9:30 – I feel like it’s a real toss-up. There is a lot of hype about Modern Family and Cougar Town, but there are going up against some real veterans… I can’t predict what’s gonna happen here…

By: CP

CP — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 17:09:31 +0000

I’ll check out Hank and maybe Cougar Town, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a clean sweep of cancellations at the end of the year for these new shows. I also think Glee and Gary Unmarried will see their last days. Jay Mohr = show killer. Mercy makes me nauseous and I hope it doesn’t last a month.

By: JustTunedIn

JustTunedIn — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 16:29:37 +0000

@ Chuck from Tacoma

That doesn’t surprise me about the increased interest in Choir. Watching the Pilot made ME wish I was still in Highschool and wondering why we only had boring real choir and not show choir.

That’s interesting if this is a general trend for a little while. I didn’t get that reaction from seeing high school musical, probably because the characters and the enormity of their productions were so unrelatable, yet quite relatable in this show. Also, seeing a real highschool show choir perform in the pilot hits home that “you can do this too”.

I’m actually happy to hear that people are expecting the show to flop; it takes off some of the pressure.

By: nkinsey

nkinsey — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 15:58:03 +0000

Wow. You’d think ABC would have learned from 2 years ago when they had a completely new Wedneday line-up…and none of those shows survived a full second season.

I was baffled that they had no anchor (read: tried and true) show for Wednesdays. They are just going to have to hold their breath until Lost resumes.

By: Tom

Tom — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 14:31:22 +0000

I do think SYTYCD will be slightly down from Summer numbers (2.9-3.0); I also wonder if it will eat into ANTM numbers slightly. I see ANTM settling around 1.5 or 1.6.

I think Criminal Minds wins in overall viewers, SVU in demos. Though I am curious if SVU’s 18-49 beats CM’s CBS metric (25-54?).

Mercy will bomb, hard. The question being just what NBC throws in the slot from late November/December to the Olympics in mid-Feb?
(No, that was not a prompt to begin Chuck-ing. Even if NBC did air Chuck there pre-Olympics, what would they fill post-Olympic Mondays with? Buy more expensive Traumas for 9pm and make Day One even more of a money pit at 8pm? That doesn’t seem wise.)

ABC will be a relative disaster in demos. Note that I expect the comedies to start okay before tanking come late October. Eastwick in running to be first canceled show. I expect two to three comedies to survive, though who knows when they will end up (Wed is already looking like Lost day.)

I really think Glee will start to fade towards the end of its Fall run. I have no doubt it will get the Spring batch of episodes as well, but the Fall trend will be ugly. (See Whimsy & Pushing Daisies demos, 2007.)

*Disclaimer: I’m not watching a single network show on Tuesdays or Wednesdays, so I have no dog in this fight. (Odd how people haven’t soured on that phrase recently.)

By: Samuel

Samuel — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 11:46:25 +0000

Wow, nothing to watch on Tuesday and Wednesday… all the good shows are gonna be stacked at the same time on Monday and Thursday… this is gonna be a streaming and DVR party.

By: millaw

millaw — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 07:31:03 +0000

i like the mercy idea at 8, then TBL, and last eastwick! wednesday is gonna be hhumpday!

By: Lizardman

Lizardman — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 06:14:34 +0000

I’ve seen a lot about ABC’s 10/9C shows and that Leno will probably beat them. I actually think Castle, Eastwick, and Private Practice beat Leno’s overall numbers and if not they will at least beat the all important 25-49 demo. The one I’m not so sure of is The Forgotten which I will try at first but it may be the first show canceled this season.

Lizard

By: Lizardman

Lizardman — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 06:08:09 +0000

I’ll be watching Glee on FOX, Cougar Town on NBC, and Eastwick on ABC. This is probably the slowest night except for Saturday and Sunday this season. I’ll DVR all three but watch two live depending on the mood and my availability.

I like all three of the women who star in Eastwick especially Jamie Rae Newman who has been stellar on Eureka. I’ve been wondering how that production schedule is jiving with the one for Eastwick.

Lizard

By: Chuck from Tacoma

Chuck from Tacoma — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 04:55:27 +0000

Glee is also going to be a big hit at my house. My wife, daughter and grand daughter have made that clear. If it were on Monday night and the Seahawks were playing, I’d still lose (but I’d fight like hell).
Heck, the grand daughter has signed up for choir at th jr high school. Instructer says she has over double the usual kids. That tells me something.

By: Chuck from Tacoma

Chuck from Tacoma — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 04:37:30 +0000

We have to watch Hank at our house. Our 10 year old next door neighbor kid has the part of Hank’s son. We are pretty danged excited at our house.
Go Nathan. Show the world what a great kid you are.

By: Anil

Anil — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 04:36:06 +0000

B. Life is going to be scandalously good!!!

By: forg

forg — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 04:14:45 +0000

Holly: I stand corrected. Yup the numbers for PD and DSM were going down week by week back then but PD won the time slot in viewers for some weeks though but the competition back then was weak (Kid Nation, Back to You/’Til Death, Deal or no Deal) So when it returned for season 2 and it finished 4th I know the show is doomed already But the comedies this season have better chances since they are more accessible to the audience than PD.

Bgun: Maybe ABC is relying on the critical buzz/hype for Modern Family and the star power of Courtney Cox to compete with SVU and CM. And from what I read (not from the U.S) ABC is promoting Modern Family a lot. If Cougar Town would survive this fall, I’m predicting stunt casting for the February sweeps (Matthew Perry or anyone from FRIENDS)

By: tdot

tdot — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 03:58:00 +0000

i think ABC’s 8-9 comedy block of The Middle and Hank looks like a total snooze fest.
As much as I love Patricia Heaton…just no.
I gave up on ANTM cylces ago. Cycle 2 was my fave.
Im gonna catch Old Christine, Gary, Glee, SVU, TBL (might give it a chance)

can’t wait for LOSSSSSSSSSSSSSSTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!

By: Bgun

Bgun — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 03:21:23 +0000

I’m rooting for the ABC comedies too, but it’s a big risk to put their best ones (Modern Family and Cougar Town) at the most competitive time slot of the night(Criminal Minds, Glee, L&O: SVU). Yikes. I can’t wait til end of September when the ratings will be posted. I do think SYTYCD will get in trouble and one of the new shows will be the first casualty of cancellation.

By: Holly

Holly — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 03:08:14 +0000

forg, The only momentum Daisies and DSM had was down. Both had fallen below a 2.5 before the strike hiatus. Practice did fare better but never really stabilized.

By: forg

forg — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 02:31:44 +0000

I’m rooting for the ABC comedies too but with the stiff competition, I’m afraid they will fail. But they did win with an all new Wednesday line up for some time with Pushing Daisies + Private Practice (and a competitive Dirty Sexy Money) but then the strike killed the momentum and you know the story. Maybe they could do it again. Well, at least I hope that at least 2 sitcoms will survive.

I like Glee it might start well like 10 million viewers with all the hype but in the long run I don’t see it beating Criminal Minds and SVU, they could be competitive in the demo though.

By: Tommy

Tommy — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 02:25:14 +0000

lol Julia, that made me laugh too

By: Julia

Julia — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 02:24:16 +0000

Glee will beat Beautiful Life.

This made me laugh.

By: Holly

Holly — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 02:19:27 +0000

I think CBS will easily win the night in both viewers and the demo. The all-new ABC night is a huge risk. I want to see the comedies do well just because they are branching out from their normal soapy dramas and this could give them some much-needed depth in the schedule, but trying to do such a big block of new shows could easily backfire.

8:00—The comedy vs comedy match up in the most interesting here. I think CBS will win in viewers with ABC taking the demo. SYTYCD will beat both. Mercy will bomb. Next Top Model will be up with the CBS comedies in the demo.

9:00–Of course, the CM/SVU match up will be interesting. SVU hasn’t had major competition for a long time. Tuesdays at 10 has been a weak spot for CBS since Judging Amy left and Boston Legal (right?) wasn’t a major powerhouse either. The benefit of moving an hour earlier will be canceled out by the competition. Criminal Minds has held up against Lost, Idol-infused Lie to Me, and Idol itself. SVU could hurt it some, but I think it could still take the hour in viewers and demo. Either way, it will be close. The ABC comedies could be in the running for the demo (close to the others, but not winning), but not in viewers. Glee will beat Beautiful Life.

10:00–Easy CBS win. Without L&O, CSI: NY will do well. Eastwick may do better than Forgotten and will probably beat Leno, but the ratings won’t be anything to write home about and I wouldn’t expect a second seaon.

By: Julia

Julia — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 02:15:10 +0000

Musical movies are making a comeback in a big way, especially those geared toward teenagers.

Tell that to Bandslam.

By: Tommy

Tommy — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 02:11:33 +0000

@r0ckmypants I understand that Highschool Musical was successful, but that was only a success because it’s a niche genre and Disney is a niche network. I could see Glee doing very well as a Mini series or a made for TV movie, but I don’t see it having any staying power as a full blown series. Sure Glee will probably have a huge premiere, but can it hold it’s initial audience? I’m thinking no

By: johnthemon23

johnthemon23 — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 02:03:43 +0000

I think ABC’s entire line-up will fail, Mercy might do well, not sure about Fox’s line-up.

By: Josh Emerson

Josh Emerson — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 01:46:55 +0000

I’m rooting for the ABC comedies. I’ve already seen Modern Family and love it. Cougar Town and The Middle both seem to have potential so I’m looking forward to those pilots. Not too excited for Hank. Meh. I’m afraid the whole block might crash and burn though.

I think Glee will do well, just not sure how well. I think it’ll at least retain most of the ‘Dance’ audience.

By: r0ckmypants

r0ckmypants — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 01:31:59 +0000

People who think Glee is too much of “niche” show are underestimating the power of the musical. Musical movies are making a comeback in a big way, especially those geared toward teenagers. Look at the power of the High School Musical franchise. Having a musical television series, especially one that features fun remakes of popular songs, is a no-brainer.

By: victor hugo

victor hugo — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 01:24:38 +0000

My prediction

Hank – 5.5 million (1.8 demo)
The Middle 6.5 million (2.0 demo)
So You Think You Can Dance – 9 million (3 demo)
Mercy – 5 million (1.5 demo)
The New Adventures of Old Christine – 7 million (2.2 demo)
Gary Unmarried – 6.8 million (2.3 demo)
America’s Next Top Model – 3.7 million (1.9 demo)

9-10pm

Modern Family – 11 million (3.0 demo)
Cougar Town – 9 million (2.7 demo)
Criminal Minds – 14 million (3.3 demo)
Law & Order:SVU – 9 million (3.2 demo)
Glee – 7.5 million (2.5 demo)
The Beautiful Life – 3 million (1.5 demo)

10-11 pm

CSI NY: 14 million (3.2 demo)
Jay Leno: 5million (1.5 demo)
Eastwick: 7.5 million (2.6 demo)

By: forg

forg — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 00:50:51 +0000

^ Well, I’m not a fan of Leno but I think he could get that kind of demo in the initial weeks of his show plus SVU could help. But then again that’s just a guess haha. What I’m sure is that CSI NY will easily win the night

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 00:46:12 +0000

^ LOL! A 2.5 demo for Jay @ 10pm? I mean, I’m a BIG fan of Leno, but let’s be realistic here….

By: forg

forg — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 00:40:44 +0000

8-9pm

Competitive time: 3 new shows vs. 1 established summer hit trying the fall slot for the first time vs. 2 veterans which are not really ratings powerhouses. SYTYCD will win the 18-49 demo and probably the total viewers. I think no show will cross the 10 million viewers mark. Here’s my prediction

Hank – 7.5 million (2.0 demo)
The Middle 7.8 million (2.1 demo)
So You Think You Can Dance – 9 million (3.3 demo)
Mercy – 5 million (1.4 demo)
The New Adventures of Old Christine – 6.7 million (1.6 demo)
Gary Unmarried – 6 million (1.5 demo)
America’s Next Top Model – 3.5 million (1.6 demo)

9-10 pm

It will be SVU vs Criminal Minds. I think SVU could challenge Criminal Minds but both shows will be done due to intense competition. Glee might do well in the demo but will lag behind for sure in total viewers.

Modern Family – 7 million (2.0 demo)
Cougar Town – 7.5 million (2.1 demo)
Criminal Minds – 11 million (3.0 demo)
Law & Order:SVU – 10 million (2.9 demo)
Glee – 8 million (2.8 demo)
The Beautiful Life – 2.2 million (1.0 demo)

10-11 pm

CSI NY will win.

CSI NY: 13 million (3.3 demo)
Jay Leno: 8 million (2.5 demo)
Eastwick: 6 million (2.0 demo)