The 9pm battle on Thursday conjures up images of aging TV battleships lining up for combat. Most are past their prime and a bit rusty, but they're still among the strongest shows afloat for their networks.
The Line Up: CSI is 9 years old, but was #2 in the adults 18-49 demo for CBS last season, Grey's Anatomy (4.5 years old, #2 18-49 demo for ABC), The Office (4.5 years old, #1 non-sports 18-49 demo for NBC), Supernatural (4 years old, #2 scripted 18-49 demo for CW). Only sophomore Fringe is a youngster, but it was still Fox's #3 scripted show in the 18-49 demo last season.
The rest of the night is packed with top performers too. Survivor, 30 Rock, Bones, Private Practice and The Mentalist are all among the strongest shows for each of their networks.
Below are the hourly lineups, including each shows 18-49 demo rating average (which includes in-slot repeats) from the 2008-9 season as well as my guesses for the fall nightly overall results.
If you enjoyed the Thursday's look ahead for the new season, check out Wednesday's and Tuesday's.
8:00
FlashForward (ABC), New
Survivor: Samoa (CBS), 4.2 18-49 demo rating for Gabon last fall
Vampire Diaries(CW), New
Bones (Fox), 2.9 demo rating (includes both Wed/Thurs airings last season)
SNL: Weekend Update (NBC), ? ; till Oct. 15 then Community
8:30
Parks & Recreation (NBC), 2.4 demo rating
9:00
Grey's Anatomy (ABC), 4.8 demo rating
CSI (CBS) 4.5 demo rating
Supernatural (CW) 1.2 demo rating
Fringe (Fox), 3.6 demo rating (Tuesday last season)
The Office (NBC), 4.0 demo rating
9:30
Community (NBC), New; till Oct. 15 then 30 Rock, 3.2 demo rating
10:00
Private Practice (ABC), 2.9 demo rating (includes both Wed/Thurs airings last season)
The Mentalist (CBS), 3.5 demo rating (Tuesday last season)
The Jay Leno Show (NBC), New, Fall 2009 Tonight Show averaged about a 1.4-1.5 demo rating
My Guess
CBS will go from competitive to dominant on Thursday with the addition of The Mentalist to their line up. CSI has definitely seen better days, and the show finished last season on a slide, but that line up is not going to be beaten in the demo this fall. Thursday's either going to be ABC's strongest or second strongest night of the season, Grey's Anatomy and Private Practice should again do well together, and FlashForward has only Ugly Betty's timeslot track record to beat to possibly put ABC well up on the night vs. last season.
Fox is not going to contend for the nightly demo crown, but they'll do much better than last season's fall which featured Moment of Truth and Kitchen Nightmares. NBC is looking at a substantial ratings drop on the night vs. last season. Of course replacing ER with Leno is a ratings loser, but so probably is replacing My Name is Earl (which was above average for NBC) with SNL/Community and Parks and Recreation which was on a down slope as it finished the season, finishing well below it's 2.4 rating average. Thursday's are also the one night where the CW looks to do noticeably worse than last season. I don't care what the buzz over vampire shows is today, I can't see Vampire Diaries coming anywhere close to Smallville's numbers.
Note: I make all my guesses completely unburdened by having read any reviews of any of the new shows, having seen any of the pilots, or knowing any more than the most casual details of their subject matter. Does that make mine better or worse than the typical TV writer which focuses almost solely on those? Your mileage may vary.
Fox caveat: Regardless of their other shows, the outcome of the major league baseball playoffs can make or break Fox's fall averages. If they get long series with good matchups their overall season averages benefit tremendously. If they get short series with bad matchups, they'll suffer.
I’m guessing GA will take a hit without Ellen Pompeo and Katherine Heigl. Without a huge lead-in, Fringe probably won’t make any improvements. I’m guessing CSI will split but still win.
I just made a comment on Thursdays but i’ll repeat myself.
While Fringe will suffer competition, I do believe it will hold on to most of Bones lead in. At first glance it may have been smarter to stick Fringe at 8 where theres not much competition, (Survivor, Flashforward, Community, Parks, Vampire Diaries) However Bones is more liekly to dominate there and likely come in second after Survivor, and maybe Flashforward will surprise us.
Heres a thought for Thursdays
8pm
Survivor – 13-14 million
Bones – 10 million
Flashforward – 8-10 (or maybe surprise hit?)
Community/Parks – 6-7 million
Vampire Diaries – 2-3 million
Its hard to be 100% about Thursday but the only certain thing is that Survivor will win, Bones will do fine and Community and Parks will do OK. Flashforward is hard to determine because it will either be a surprise hit or another flop. Vampire Diaries won’t be Smallville but should fit in with Supernatural.
9pm
CSI – 18-22 million
Grey’s Anatomy 14-16 million
Fringe – 7-9 million
The Office/30 Rock – 7-9 million
Supernatural – 3-4 million
While it will not beat CSI and Grey’s, its hard to determine if Fringe will come in 3rd or 4th. if it holds on to most of Bones it will likely beat NBC’s Office/30 Rock combo yet that combo has done better last year. Hell’s Kitchen got around 7 million after Bones on thursdays but a compatible drama would likely do better. My best guess is that The Office and 30 Rock will get 9 and 7 million on average respectively while Fringe could go from 8-7 million. Only time will tell but I hope the best for Fringe this year. FOX has an advantage of keeping Bones and Fringe in the same slots for the whole year unlike last year.
10pm
The Mentalist – 18-20 million
Private Practice – 14 million viewers
Jay Leno Show – 3-5 million
10pm is easy The Mentalist should do amazing and retain most of its CSI while Private Practice will hold on to most of Grey’s. 10pm is never about competition (since Mentalist will obviously beat Practice) its about how much of the 9pm show’s audience the 10pm show can hold on to. In this case both 10pm shows are easily compativle with their respective 9pm shows.
Bottom line: CBS should win the night with survivor and crime dramas, ABC should come in second with their SCI-fi Flashforward and medical dramas, FOX should come in third with their dramas, and NBC should come in fourth with their comedies.
Flashforward – Likely to get a full season, ABC’s big drama this season. Maybe eventually be paired with Lost.
Community – Highly likely to get a full season despite likely low ratings.
Vampire Diaries – Likely to get a full year along the compatible Supernatural.
Nightly up/down vs. previous year is an easy scorecard, but not too useful in judging the aggregate. For the CW, with limited real estate to work with, if Supernatural can tread water and Vampire Diaries is a net add for the whole week in terms of W18-34 (and offsets any Friday move/long-in-tooth decreases with Smallville) the CW can (and absolutely will) declare virtual victory.
The CW has the simplest report card of all “is W18-34 up this year over last year, even just for the Monday-Friday?”
Supernatural is getting a better timeslot, but there’s some crossover with Fringe and Supernatural that will have DVRs working hard. Programming my own schedule I think I’d be more prone to watching Flash Forward at 8p and Fringe at 9p on Thursday nights, and catching Supernatural, Survivor, and The Office on DVR. It will be interesting to see whether Supernatural’s overall Live+7 #s are stable year/year even if the Live+SD take a hit.
I don’t know Bill, those tween girls are mad for anything with a vampire in it these days. None of the other shows at 8pm are really marketed at that teen female audience either, so I could see Vampire Diaries actually doing better than Smallville in the long run.
I really wish Supernatural and Fringe weren’t competing against one another. I think the could share similar audiences. I believe both shows will be fine though. I think those who watch Supernatural will continue to do so and record Fringe. Given the CW doesn’t get stellar ratings to begin with I don’t think it’ll hurt Fringe.
I think Fringe is going to surprise some people. It wasn’t always well considered early in it’s first season run, but ended with pretty decent hype–if the writers do their jobs, it’ll build on that. Besides, CSI is getting flat out long in the tooth at 9 seasons, and I’m guessing that zeitgeist has passed. And Grey’s is suffering cast attrition that’ll probably translate into viewer attrition (The ER effect) heading into next season.
I don’t know if Fox did the right move, they’ve put Fringe against the biggest competition you can get. Do they want the show to survive until season 3? Or will they be merciful. Because fringe is probably gonna finish 3rd or fourth, even if it could get a 3.9 demo like it did behind AI
I guess I’ll have to do like robert, FF at 8p, fringe at 9p and probably listen to supernatural repeat at 11p
How did Moment of Truth and Kitchen Nightmares performed last season on this schedule?
I can’t wait for The Mentalist to return. It was MY FAVORITE show last season. It worked so well out of NCIS, but I’m sure it will do well out of CSI too (another long-time fav of mine).
I just can’t wait for this season to get started! Hurry up Sept. 21! (Well TONIGHT for Supernatural!
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Does anybody knows if Fringe is still gonna be remote free tv? Or something like that…
Samuel – FOX has had a hard time thursdays. They’ve tried Til Death/ Happy Hour/ The O.C. from 06-07 which failed, then did very well with Fifth Grader and Lyrics from 07-08, then did bad again with Kitchen Nightmares and Hole in the Wall. Then finally they smartly moved Bones to thursdays before Hell’s Kitchen and now they have a compatible 2 hours with Bones and Fringe. Unlike Dollhouse, FOX counts on Fringe to survive into season 3 along with Lie to Me. Which is why they’ve scheduled both series after veteran dramas House and Bones to help the sophomore series. FOX has had trouble with dramas in recent years so it wouldnt surprise me that they would do anything to save Fringe and Lie to Me.
Again, Fringe will come in third to CSI and Grey’s and sometimes fourth behind The Office/30 Rock but if Fringe holds on to most of Bones it will do fine for the night.
I don’t think putting Fringe Thursdays at 9 is about finishing first so much as it’s about besting their past demos–which it probably will. That said, for those who say network television is dead, they might be right the other 23 hours of the week, but it certainly seems to be a flat out super-heavyweight division Thursdays at 9 this fall. I wonder if this ‘muscle against muscle’ strategy on the network’s part is an effort to collectively bring back aggregate viewers.
After Grey’s resurged after a poor start and CSI dipped with Laurence Fishburne, I am unsure how either show will do. If The Mentalist starts building on or even beats CSI in ratings then we could a time slot flip as early as midseason, I imagine this season is a last chance for CSI to prove it should stay in the plum 9pm slot.
I think Vampire Diaries will do well but the 8pm slot is very competitive with all scripted shows with the exception of Survivor which is still going strong.
–sorta like branding the notion of valid network programming itself
Samuel, “Remote Free” is gone this year. Both for FRINGE and DOLLHOUSE.
So at 9:00 we have 4 shows ranging from a 3.6 to a 4.8 demo rating. Those are some serious horses.
Clearly someone is going to be the winner and someone (I fear the Office) will be the loser. How far can these shows sink before the networks gets concerned? If the office drops to 3.6 for example, that’s still pretty good for NBC, right? (unless you consider it is their #1 show) If Grey’s Anatomy sinks to a 4.0 does ABC start to worry?
Or can they all keep these high numbers?
I thought “Grey’s Anatomy” was ABC’s #1 Demo show? What am i missing here? Or was it “Desperate Housewives”?
Anyway, i know ABC has a long term plan for both series as they have inked “Desperate Housewives” through 2013 and are trying to find ways to eventually keep “Grey’s Anatomy” going even long passed the core cast is gone. But i honestly think that is not going to work. From Season One, the show has always been character driven rather than plot driven like how “ER” was. Heck, the show is named after a character. The loss of the original cast is definitely going to start having an effect on the ratings. T.R Knight is gone and we can’t seem to blink without hearing about the latest Katherine Heigl bitch fest. ABC seems to let her run a muck because they are willing to do anything to keep her there, as she is the only breakout star from the series. But ABC needs to face it, Heigl wants off, and it’s going to happen soon. Either shut her up and give her a ridiculously bigger pay raise or just let her go, because her antics are starting to affect the quality of the show. How Izzie went from having a deadly point-of-no-return brain tumor to a suddenly being cured based off of Heigls 11th hour decision to stay put was the most ridiculous plot line i’ve seen on a tv series in years. It cheapens the tv series so much. Anyway, enough with my Grey’s rant, but ABC needs to realize that they need to find a new series to depend on because the internal conflicts with Grey’s Anatomy, both on screen and behind the screen is going to self destruct the series.
The end.
I think that the wheels are off of CSI, and I think that CBS will flip it and The Mentalist mid-season. Towards the end of last season, CSI was dipping into the 13 millions and a 3 in the demo, highly out rated by The Mentalist on Tuesday. I do think that GA will see similar ratings to last season, even without Pompeo and Heigel.
Here are my two big question marks for the night:
1. Flashforward: How will this do? UB set the bar fairly low (last fall, it was around 8 million and mid-2s in demos), so anything above that could pump numbers for ABC. If it manages more than 10 million, ABC’s going to be trumpeting it as the future of the network.
2. The Mentalist: Will it carry over those 20 million viewers? NCIS outrates CSI as a lead-in at this point. If this show can carry those 20 million, it’s going to 9pm, guaranteed.
Other thoughts: Survivor will continue slow erosion (down to 11 to 12 million), which could open the door for FF. NBC will have huge problems at 8pm. Will The Office move up to 8pm to slow the bleeding? Instead of trying out two untested series at 8pm, this makes much more sense.
SUPERNATURAL BABY!!!!!
Sam – ABC definitely needs to find a new drama. There recently renewed dramas from the past 2 seasons are just Private Practice and Castle. They are trying to grow both series by airing them after high rated series (DWTS and Grey’s). After a series of flops the past 2 years, ABC is also trying there luck with Flashforward. After Lost ends, ABC will have only the dramas Desperate Housewives, Grey’s Anatomy, Brothers & Sisters, Ugly Betty, Private Practice, and Castle, all of which I believe will return in 10-11. Hopefully this year ABC can find strong dramas.
Zeker – In the case of Fringe, FOX wants the series to succeed. For them its not about beating the competition its about bringing life to thursdays and taking advantage of the dwindling CSI and Grey’s. However the 5 networks to all 6 series airing from 9-10 thursdays will likely not be concerned. For CBS, ABC, and The CW the dramas CSI, Greys, and Supernatural are reliable veterans. Also NBC will accept whatever numbers The Office and 30 Rock bring and FOX will likely be content with Fringe. In terms of who will come in 3rd and 4th bewteen FOX and NBC my guess is that Fringe and Office/30 Rock will get similiar numbers but Fringe will perform slightly better. The lead in also can determine a lot for FOX and NBC so Bones is definitely a better lead in then Community/Parks.