In sharp contrast to Thursday night, where the broadcast networks bring out their heavyweights, Friday night is reserved in most cases for a broadcaster's misfit shows. They're not dead yet or they'd be on Saturday, but they aren't deemed strong enough to put on any night that really matters.
The exception to that Friday broadcast programming rule is CBS, which has in the past fielded two hours of slightly below average (for the network as a whole) ratings performers. This season, they've added Medium, which was cast off by NBC, and look to have their strongest Friday line up in several years.
The shows are each misfits in their own "special" ways, Ugly Betty is airing the episodes it needed to produce for syndication minimums, benefiting the Disney empire overall. 'Til Death, was bad enough to be pulled after 5 episodes last season, but a reportedly "give away" licensing deal by Sony Pictures Television to get it to syndication has resurrected it. Law & Order is here to achieve it's 20th season and then drift into the sunset. I think Southland's renewal was realized to be a mistake soon after its announcement, and it's perhaps thought to be either too expensive or too much of a come down to *start* it off on Saturday night this season. Enough has been written already about Dollhouse's low ratings and its surprising renewal. Since Fox had no other half hour free anywhere on its schedule for a non-animated show, Brothers gets stuck in front of 'Til Death. And while Smallville is anything but ratings challenged (at least for the CW), it doesn't fit with the CW's "all young women, all the time" demo target, so off it went to Friday. Such are the tales of the Friday misfits.
Below are the hourly lineups, including each shows 18-49 demo rating average (which includes in-slot repeats) from the 2008-9 season as well as my guesses for the fall nightly overall results.
If you enjoyed the Friday's look ahead for the new season, check out Thursday's, Wednesday's and Tuesday's.
8:00
Supernanny (ABC), 1.7 18-49 demo rating
Ghost Whisperer (CBS), 2.4 18-49 demo rating
Smallville (CW), 1.4 demo rating (on Thursday last season)
Brothers (Fox), New
Law & Order(NBC), 2.1 demo rating (on Wednesday last season)
8:30
'Til Death (Fox), 1.8 demo rating (on Wednesday last season, just 5 non-repeat episodes)
9:00
Ugly Betty (ABC), 2.3 demo rating (on Thursday last season)
Medium (CBS) 2.4 demo rating (on NBC Monday last season)
America's Next Top Model Repeats (CW) 0.6 demo rating (last fall's repeats on Fridays and Sundays)
Dollhouse (Fox), 1.5 demo rating
Southland (NBC), 2.4 demo rating (Thursday last season)
10:00
20/20 (ABC), 1.9 demo rating
Numb3rs(CBS), 2.1 demo rating
The Jay Leno Show (NBC), New, Fall 2009 Tonight Show averaged about a 1.4-1.5 demo rating
My Guess
These posts are getting to be a broken record, but it's hard not to imagine CBS dominating Fridays. They typically won the night last season, and Medium is a net positive. Second place looks to be a battle between NBC and ABC that I think NBC will likely win. Leno has his easiest competition of the week and should do relatively well.
Fox looks to be well back in 4th, but since their Fridays last season were so screwed up, season to season comparisons may not be that bad. The CW will see a big increase on Fridays, since Smallville, their best 18-49 demo show last season, will do far better than The Game and Everybody Hates Chris that it replaces.
Note: I make all my guesses completely unburdened by having read any reviews of any of the new shows, having seen any of the pilots, or knowing any more than the most casual details of their subject matter. Does that make mine better or worse than the typical TV writer which focuses almost solely on those? Your mileage may vary.
Fox caveat: Regardless of their other shows, the outcome of the major league baseball playoffs can make or break Fox's fall averages. If they get long series with good matchups their overall season averages benefit tremendously. If they get short series with bad matchups, they'll suffer.
This is gonna be the low rated show festival!! (if you close you’re eyes on Ghost whisperer)
CBS will definitely win Friday nights in demo and viewers. ABC should come in 2nd. NBC will probably take 3rd. CW and FOX will be close to each other but Id say FOX comes in 4th with CW not too far behind.
If Ugly Betty can up its game (Most of last season was rather perfunctory writing with recycled plots), The key viewers will watch and then go out for the evening. That is ABC’s only hope for second.
It was different when Ugly Betty was on Thursday at 8. It had competition. Here to me the only real competition for Ugly Betty is Medium. The rest of the shows will barely hit a 1.0 demo.
NUMB3RS is my only Friday show (on network TV). On cable I’ve also got Monk & Psych.
At 8pm Ghost Whisperer will dominate, but L&O will be close. Tied in demo
At 9pm Medium will win hands down. I don’t see Ugly Betty doing great on Fridays. Maybe 5 millons, 3er in demo
Southland i think had a shot.. until Medium came in. But i think will do OK
CBS will not only win Fridays, they will completely dominate.
8:00–Ghost Whisperer comes out on top by a substantial margin. L&O will do respectably, beating Supernanny in viewers. Demos between the two are a toss up. Smallville will come in 4th. The Fox comedies will bomb.
9:00–Medium wins, holding most of its GW lead-in. Ugly Betty will beat out Southland, but not necessarily by much. Dollhouse will limp into last place.
10:00–Numb3rs will win the hour in viewers and demo. 20/20 will often be close in the demo. Leno will trail by a smaller margin than every other night.
friday night is very interesting!!
i will watch
UGLY BETTY(of course)
DOLLHOUSE
GHOST WHISPERER
MEDIUM
@t Bill
in your opinion does Ugly Betty has a chance to survive until may or moreover for a fifth season.
i really enjoy this show.it’s much funnier than all sitcoms!!
Even CBS’ misfits are enough to clean house on Friday, both viewers and demos. I see NBC squeaking into second place over ABC to start, though they will probably lose ground once Southland comes in.
How low can Dollhouse go? Nobody knows! I think they will finish the run, even at the 1.0 to 1.2 they bottom at, but prepare for the Whedonites raging once it ends on ~December 18th. Who knows when ‘Til Death gets yanked again, and I doubt Brothers makes it to January, even with Fox’s apparent minority advancement plan.
(Fox, the Republican (at least in news) channel, hires Wanda Sykes, puts on the only African-American lead show of the season, and now hires a lesbian on their biggest hit? Did I fall into Bizarro World?)
Smallville is down from last year, but presumably synidcation/DVD/international works out positive in the end. I think ANTM numbers could actually be up slightly vs. the repeats last year, due to greater competition in first run slot.
thank god I don’t live in america, I would have to pick between Ghost Whisperer and Smallville (probably record GH) and at 9pm Medium, Ugly Betty and Dollhouse (record Medium but then stuck between Ugly betty and Dollhouse)
zee, thankfully we have DVRs in America!
but Friday my DVR won’t be very active. I will DVR Dollhouse, watch Numb3rs through On Demand or via CBS streaming to iPhone later in the week, and probably use the night to catch up on all the other stuff that has piled up on the DVR Sun-Thursday.
It’s a shame there’s no Flashpoint. Realistically CBS will win, but since I want to believe, I’ll take Dollhouse. Btw, it’s the 16th anniversary of The X-Files.
Dollhouse is the only show that interests me on Fridays.
It will be very interesting to see how the 9:00 slot actually turns out. Medium should have no trouble winning and I’m guessing that Ugly Betty comes in second, but will see noticeably reduced ratings. I’m guessing that Southland’s numbers won’t be at all pretty, but whether they are still enough to beat Dollhouse I’m not sure.
I am very curious to see if Reilly’s reasons for renewing DH hold and if he will indeed be happy with the same ratings as last year (if it can at least maintain those numbers).
I cannot believe that Law and Order will end this year. I wish it would stay on longer.
L&O and 8:00 seems destined to be a major failure. Everytime a L&O show or spin-off has been moved earlier from the 10:00PM slot it has lost viewers. I’m not optimistic for SVU at 9:00.
Unless Leno doesn’t do as well as planned and they have him on 3 nights a week and put the L&O’s at the twp remaining 10:00 pm slots.
*two, sorry
Somehow for this is an exciting night because there is competition. I just don’t like the ANTM repeat because for me its waste of timeslot although probably its cost effective but I would appreciate if the CW risked and put scheduled something there.
Anyway for my predictions;
8pm
GH will win for sure, Law and Order might do decently. Supernanny will be its usual stable performance. Man, I do hope Smallville beats Til Death and Brothers even if in just the demo only, total viewers might still go Fox’s sitcoms. But wow at the survival of Til Death, living up to its name really.
Ghost Whisperer – 10 million (2.4 demo)
Law and Order – 7.5 million (2.0 demo)
Supernanny – 7 million (1.7 demo)
Til Death – 4 million (1.3 demo) / Brothers – 3 million (1.3 demo)
Smallville – 3 million (1.4 demo)
9pm
I hope Ugly Betty comes in second at least.
Medium – 9 million (2.4 demo)
Ugly Betty – 7 million (1.9 demo)
Southland – 5 million (1.7 demo)
Dollhouse – 4 million (1.5 demo)
ANTM repeat – 1 million (0.4 demo)
10pm
Numb3rs – 10 million (2.2 demo)
20/20 – 6 million (1.8 demo)
Jay Leno – 4 million (1.5 demo)
^ Your Ugly Betty #s are very optimistic, considering the show was struggling to get 7 million/1.9 demos near the tail end of its previous season.
^ Yeah, I’m hoping that with lesser competition now, it could get that number because I don’t see Southland and Dollhouse pulling viewers away from Betty.